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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 299 (Idalia) , Major: 299 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 299 (Idalia) Major: 299 (Idalia)

News Talkback >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser

Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Quiet Mid June
      #80129 - Wed Jun 18 2008 11:54 AM

Kinda intrested in the piece of energy thats showing up in NAM, GFS, CMC... it's the wave over the western Caribbean/south of Cuba... appears to break off and head into the GOM in the next 24-48hrs before getting caught up in the westeries ahead and heading out... really it would be MUCH needed tropical moisture for the south Florida... 48 hr NAM

(Post moved to the appropriate Forum - forecasts based exclusivly on model projections really belong in the Forecast Lounge.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Jun 18 2008 12:24 PM)

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser

Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: GOM SSTs [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #80169 - Wed Jun 25 2008 01:34 AM

anyone see the long range GFS tonight? looks interesting for late next week into 4th of July for the long range.
I thought i counted 4 tropical lows... hope GFS is not right like it was a month ago. looks like azore high gets pushed around some starting early next week, with the help of the EPAC system that could develope. wave train fires off a low?

Wide range SST's

00Z run on GFS

(Post moved - see comments on first post in this thread.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Jun 25 2008 07:54 AM)

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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
More Interesting Times [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #80180 - Thu Jun 26 2008 08:05 PM

We may be seeing more of interest in the Atlantic basin in the coming weeks. Since things quickly returned to high shear/strong trades for much of June after Arthur went away, there hasn't been much to fascinate over or wonder about, really. However, we seem to be getting ready for one of those MJO-induced gear shifts. Activity in the Western Pacific (Fengshen) has preceded what looks like an attempt at development on the Eastern Pacific side... two invests out there and both have a decent chance of spinning up (although they should be short lived, since they are close to the cold/stable layer west of the Baja). GFS, which did a fair job with Alma/Arthur at the end of May has been consistently pointing to an African wave due to debut around June 30th. It shows ridiculously fast development near the Cape Verdes during the first week of July and tracks the 'system' west-northwest on a mid-Atlantic recurvature path, although the low pressure itself is shown washing out at the end of the 6-hr interval resolution period. None of the other models are the slightest bit interested, but GFS has been showing the same system doing the same thing again and again. Consistency like that is not to be ignored, although we aren't quite there yet in terms of taking it completely seriously. I seriously doubt that a tropical storm will pass the Cape Verdes around July 2nd, as shown by the GFS, but don't have as much of a problem envisioning such a system developing slowly and staying on a much more southerly course. The GFS does show an upper anticyclone moving westward in tandem with the feature... more cause to believe there may be something to it. If none of the other models have bought into this thing by Saturday, expect it to be a total wash in terms of development. However, that doesn't preclude the next couple of weeks being a period with enhancing rising motion in the Atlantic Basin and a higher than average tendency for development. I.e. frontal tails and any trough splitting further north are really a more climatologically likely source for action, so keep a watch for such things.
HF 0105z27june

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Weather Guru

Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
Re: Still Quiet in the Tropics [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #80190 - Sun Jun 29 2008 11:31 AM


Wave about to move off the african coast likely to be the one the GFS/ECMWF/GGEm models have been trying to develope so we'll se what happens next week.

06z GFS takes a bit futher west this time.

ECMWF also has it though a bit weaker.

(Post moved to the appropriate Forum - see edit comments at the start of this thread.)


Image size and linking. Keep all inline post images smaller than 600 pixels horizontal and 500 pixels vertical.

Edited by danielw (Sun Jun 29 2008 06:02 PM)

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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Invest 92L- July 1 [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #80207 - Tue Jul 01 2008 11:16 AM

Current Tropical Model output for 92L at the 96 hour on 080705 at 1200Z.
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080701 1200 UTC

BAMS.....15.9N 35.2W
BAMD.....17.2N 34.8W
BAMM.....16.6N 34.7W
LBAR .....12.2N 42.5W
SHIP.......84 KTS

Remember... these are model trajectories and are subject to very large errors in nautical miles at the 96 hour forecast.~danielw

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Ed in Va
Weather Master

Posts: 489
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms South of Cape Verde Islands [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #80247 - Fri Jul 04 2008 11:02 AM

The track has shifted significantly westward. The mid-Atlantic could be under the gun in about 10 days. Plenty of time to watch.

Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!

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Weather Guru

Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
12z package [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #80311 - Mon Jul 07 2008 11:36 AM

So far the 12Z BAMS package seems to show a distinct recurve back towards the NW / WNW near the end of the run.

Is there any new data supporting a strengthing high to push it back westerly?

(The answer is no - at least not yet. Post moved - see comments for first post in this thread.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Jul 07 2008 11:57 AM)

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Weather Analyst

Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Major Hurricane Bertha Now Moving Northwest [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #80348 - Tue Jul 08 2008 08:29 PM

where did evryone go? a fish spinner and evryone go's away. what we cant try and figure what part of open ocean she will be in, in a few days hmm hmm :-) . ithink she will be west of bermuda in the open ocean headed north north west 5 days from now based on no satisticle reasoning except for my gut analysis that she will meander and tugged more northwest with a slightly weak ridge that will quickly dissapate in response to the next trough.

(Post moved - see comments for first post in this thread.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Jul 08 2008 09:18 PM)

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Posts: 2321
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: A few changes with Bertha [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #80408 - Sat Jul 12 2008 04:17 AM

Potentially less than ideal developments for the island nation of Bermuda.

Over the past eight hours Bertha has occasionally meandered, with, if anything, an overall course correction back left (biased back towards the northwest, if there's been much northerly component to speak of, at all).. I would bet dollars to donuts that over the last ten hours, smoothed out, she was certainly no longer heading perfectly NNW.

Given her current coordinates of something closer to 62.5W 29.5N (which suggests more of a NW track), even if Bertha was to now head basically due north until she reached the 32cd parallel, at this rate of speed, Bermuda could be raked by squalls virtually non-stop for over 24 hours... perhaps even days.

Of course, "Where's the beef?" Or, in this case, "Where's this northerly turn?" Maybe Bertha will essentially just sit and spin, waiting for the next trof to come along. If she sits and spins in place, and spins herself down in doing so, she might begin to drift even more west, or perhaps south, and miss the next trof again, altogether.

Looking at the models, several aren't even agreeing with themselves for more than one or two runs, right now. Currently, two main camps are evident:
1) Bertha meanders around, perhaps even largely over, Bermuda, and by about Monday, starts scooting off to the NNE or NE
2) Bertha meanders around, gets stuck, left to spin and meander around some more, and ends up not all that far to the N and/or NE of where she is tonight by days 5, 6, even 7

Of all these, the models that suggest she starts scooting out to the N/NE at a rapid pace by late Monday look a little suspect, as of right now, at least. They simply tend to be very bullish on the strength of the trof and related features coming off the east coast... and possibly on the northerly extent of Bertha's location by that time, as well, and so require one to make some leaps of faith that so far don't seem warranted. That leaves one to put a little more stock in to the runs that keep Bertha either stuck and meandering, or on a variable course - tending NW and maybe then N initially - and maybe hooking east to southeast beyond that --- the latter keeping Bermuda on TC watch over this entire weekend, and even possibly into next week.

(Post moved - see comments on first post in this thread.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jul 12 2008 09:54 AM)

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