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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 298 (Idalia) , Major: 298 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 298 (Idalia) Major: 298 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2009 Forecast Lounge

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: Erika Lounge. Where do you think it Will go? [Re: MikeC]
      #86843 - Thu Sep 03 2009 01:56 PM

Take a look at this! The 12Z gfl has Erica a cat 5 off off the carolinas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation

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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Erika Lounge. Where do you think it Will go? [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #86848 - Thu Sep 03 2009 03:54 PM

What is up with the latest forcast cone from NHC? It seems to show Erika moving NORTHEAST over the next 12 hours, then doing a hard left to go back to a northwest heading!! That is one of the strangest things I have seen them put out in a while. Is anyone there LOOKING at what their computers are putting out?

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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


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Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: Erika Lounge. Where do you think it Will go? [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #86850 - Thu Sep 03 2009 03:58 PM

Quote:

What is up with the latest forcast cone from NHC? It seems to show Erika moving NORTHEAST over the next 12 hours, then doing a hard left to go back to a northwest heading!! That is one of the strangest things I have seen them put out in a while. Is anyone there LOOKING at what their computers are putting out?




Haha...I know, I found that quite entertaining. I don't know what is going on with that. I suppose that may be the NHC's way of showing that they believe a new LLC will form behind the one that is running away.

Edited by hogrunr (Thu Sep 03 2009 04:03 PM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Erika Lounge. Where do you think it Will go? [Re: hogrunr]
      #86857 - Thu Sep 03 2009 05:07 PM

The models are still split on this system. A couple seem to degenerate it into an open wave and then spin it up again just East of Florida in a few days. The ones that have consistently developed it have been proven wrong at this point.

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Michael

PWS


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