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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Alex Forecast Lounge
      #87767 - Fri Jun 25 2010 07:09 PM

Where do you think the system will go? How strong will it get? Will it sit and spin? Take your best guesses and discuss long range models here.

Best guess is still into Mexico (south of the Texas border) once it crosses the Yucatan, but enough uncertainty has entered the picture to allow for more.


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Ed in Va
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Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #87779 - Fri Jun 25 2010 09:35 PM

This isn't about TD 1, but what is showing on the 18oz GFS run for the NE Gulf...is that storm tropical or not

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation



--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!

Edited by Ed in Va (Fri Jun 25 2010 09:40 PM)


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TheOtherRick
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Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed in Va]
      #87780 - Fri Jun 25 2010 09:56 PM

I think it's Alex in the NE Gulf reformed on that computer plot.

Hard to say where it'll go, but I'd bet the ranch it'll be a lot stronger than they say it will.

Those that say it might help with the oil spill don't include those actually involved. They have pumped millions of gallons of dispersant, and burn massive amounts on the surface, in addition to pumping out some from that cap. Just chasing them away for a few days could have a dramatic effect, not to mention the wind driving it onshore.

With apologies to Mexico, sure hope it turns west.


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TheOtherRick
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Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #87786 - Fri Jun 25 2010 11:06 PM

The 11pm update has it taking a curl west at the very end, and has it staying a tropical storm all the way across land. Stronger than they said it would.

Still underestimating it is my hunch.


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berrywr
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Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #87789 - Sat Jun 26 2010 03:29 AM

The 26/00Z package this evening is all over the place with TD1. The GFS initialized an inverted upper trough over the Yucatan and closes this feature off by H+72 (28/00Z). Currently UW-CIMMS is analyzing 50 knots of speed shear west to east along 22N latitude and it either weakens or gets out of the way or Alex will become a shallow system until it does do either and it becomes a question of how much he is likely to regenerate before arriving at the coast. Oil spill interests do not want this system taking a track to the coast of Texas or W LA. This is one scenario where a N to NE track might be in the overall best interest of everybody along the coast of the spill. This system has to deal with a few things; one a landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula, two, the upper low developing to its west and shear along the 22N corridor. Models are in two camps for the moment and if there is another wild card it's the evolution of the Eastern US longwave trough and while light it is reflected as far south as the Northern Gulf coast; certainly it is a pattern change from what the Southeast USA has been experience with this prolong heatwave. The biggest obstacle is the shear; it's all mute if it doesn't abate.

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Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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berrywr
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Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #87790 - Sat Jun 26 2010 03:41 AM

You're correct, GFS has it plotted near the FL coast. The feature to the left is the GFS initializing an inverted upper trough over the Yucatan Peninsula and closing it off in about 72 hours which I believe is why it has Alex near FL on day 5. I spoke of this in the lounge; we cannot dismiss the shear that is currently near 22N latitude stretching from west to east. For the moment, TD1/Alex won't survive the track into the GOM in the here and now. Don't get me wrong it will enter the GOM but as a shallow system. None of the models are taking this system to hurricane strength other than the GFDL. A track to the west of the spill is not in the best interest of all concerned; a track towards FL while it will freak the daylights out of everybody isn't a bad thing for the oil on the surface given the winds ahead of the storm and a trajectory towards FL...initially they would be from the east but eventually a FL landfall would allow winds to back (counter clock) from east to northeast to north to northwest. A TX or TX/LA approach will initiate a fetch of south and southeast winds and some piling of water into all points east...assuming Alex is of any significance in development.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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TheOtherRick
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Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge [Re: berrywr]
      #87820 - Sun Jun 27 2010 09:13 AM

Yep, so far, they've underestimated it.

My hunch is they still are.


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Rick99
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Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche [Re: MikeC]
      #87904 - Mon Jun 28 2010 11:02 AM

Quote:

10 am CDT update is out, track shifted right again. This is going to be a crappy 4th of July for South Texas!!




Might be worse for Louisiana. That last data point is almost due north. The stronger it is the more it curls to the East, the more it curls to the East, the stronger it gets.

(Post moved to the appropriate Forum. Remember, long range speculative stuff is better suited to the Lounge.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Jun 28 2010 11:07 AM)


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SeaMule
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this is a huge storm [Re: MikeC]
      #87932 - Mon Jun 28 2010 09:31 PM

heavy cloud cover is wrapping around the storm. look at the size of the storm...and watch the wrapping of CDO. this storm will be huge, i think....and anyone who thinks that the NHC, or anyone else...has a wrap on this storm...is foolish. the only reason the NHC doesn't make sudden changes to their forecast, is because they are naturally conservative. It's as I said before. NONE of the models have gotten the fwd speed right. therefore, they are only human input of data. They can be amazingly accurate. But when a storm defies again and again the data...it's time to think from the gut. This thing is heading to the north gulf coast...imho

(The description of the Forecast Lounge says that 'gut' forecasts go here. )

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Jun 28 2010 09:58 PM)


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Rick99
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Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche [Re: Rick99]
      #87935 - Mon Jun 28 2010 10:00 PM

All computer models are racing to the east. Only the NHC is now in Mexico.
Same 91.6 position as 5 am, but 70 miles north.
Pressure dropping.

Tell me again why it's such a certainty it won't hit the oil spill that they shouldn't be assuming it will.


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Rick99
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex [Re: MikeC]
      #87943 - Mon Jun 28 2010 10:50 PM

100 miles due north since 5am. Another 500 to the oil spill.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex [Re: Rick99]
      #87944 - Mon Jun 28 2010 11:07 PM

That 985mb pressure would easily support a 90mph Hurricane. Alex is so strung out it is taking forever for it to get the wind/ pressure relationship together.
Roughly 600 miles to the Northern Gulf Coast and probably 600 miles from east to west. Large wind field if and when it spins up.


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Rick99
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex [Re: Rick99]
      #87945 - Mon Jun 28 2010 11:17 PM

Ok, no discussing the oil well except here. Got it. Just figured that put the amazing 100 miles due north from 5am in perspective, how it's not trivial.

NHC must not be discussing it either, still well to the west of all models, some of which now bring it close enough to make trouble. If they really need five days warning, it's already too late.

No doubt the NHC is right, but if they're wrong, there will be hell to pay.


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allan
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex [Re: Rick99]
      #88000 - Wed Jun 30 2010 11:21 AM Attachment (205 downloads)

I feel this is the right place to post this. I am throwing out the NHC forecast and models. Based on the current motion and pattern of Alex. I have my track set like this..

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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mwillis
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex [Re: allan]
      #88002 - Wed Jun 30 2010 11:48 AM

I'm going to just throw out a crazy idea that Alex will go north more with landfall in southern to central texas. I think this because i think alex will start being steered the upper level regions.

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