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Models are starting to notice trof in the Gulf. Could become yet another TD-like system this weekend, even if not named. #txwx
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 333 (Nicholas) , Major: 349 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1403 (Michael) Major: 1403 (Michael)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge

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kgarriga
Unregistered




Re: TD#3 Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #88464 - Fri Jul 23 2010 02:57 PM

Should I be worried if I live in Pascagoula, MS?

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WesnWylie
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
Re: TD#3 Forecast Lounge [Re: kgarriga]
      #88465 - Fri Jul 23 2010 03:12 PM

You are in the path of Bonnie; however, just stay alert to any updates from the NHC concerning the system. You will likely feel tropical storm conditions in your area as it nears, but the likelihood of Bonnie turning into a hurricane is low at this time. The highest probability the NHC gives Bonnie of becoming a hurricane during the forecast period is 9% by tomorrow evening.

Hope this helps.

Edited by WesnWylie (Fri Jul 23 2010 03:16 PM)


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kgarriga
Unregistered




Re: TD#3 Forecast Lounge [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88468 - Fri Jul 23 2010 03:20 PM

Thanks, that helps alot!! Can I ask one more question??? When do you think we will start feeling the strong winds, etc? More than likely, where do you think it will come in? LA/MS ?

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WesnWylie
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
Re: TD#3 Forecast Lounge [Re: kgarriga]
      #88471 - Fri Jul 23 2010 03:34 PM

You will likely start feeling the effects by tomorrow afternoon, but as far as the more significant impacts (winds, waves, etc.) it will be tomorrow evening. But since this will probably change between now and then here is the NWS link for your area http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php...Field2=-88.5473, so you can be kept up to date.

As for the track, I would rather not say, since I don't know for sure. The NHC will update full advisories at 4:00 a.m./p.m. and 10:00 a.m./p.m. CDT and partial updates at 2:00 a.m./p.m. and 7:00a.m./p.m. CDT.

If you have any more questions on this system or any future systems, feel free to ask me or anyone else on here.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: TD#3 Forecast Lounge [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88473 - Fri Jul 23 2010 04:00 PM

I gotta say,it was pretty much a non-event here.And it came ashore about 40 miles south of me.Sun has been out for hours now.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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kgarriga
Unregistered




Re: TD#3 Forecast Lounge [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88485 - Fri Jul 23 2010 06:39 PM

Thank you so much!!!!! I actually have never posted on here. But, I was one of about 5 people who got the jump on Katrina because I followed all of the info. on this site. That is the truth.....Now, whenever I say something about the weather to my friends, they listen, because they were the other 4 who followed my advice on Katrina!!! I give full credit to this website!!!

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: TD#3 Forecast Lounge [Re: kgarriga]
      #88519 - Sun Jul 25 2010 07:59 AM

Glad to know that you and your friends took cover from Katrina based on information gathered here and other places.

Forecast for the days ahead... from yesterdays forecast discussion(s).

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
228 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

VALID 12Z TUE JUL 27 2010 - 12Z SAT JUL 31 2010
(excerpt)
A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF 00Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...MAINLY
EUROPEAN...AS WELL AS THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE...BRING A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 15W THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARDS PUERTO RICO BY
NEXT WEEKEND AT A RATE OF SIX DEGREES LONGITUDE PER DAY...OR 15
KNOTS. THIS WAS ADDED TO THE PROGS WITH NHC/S BLESSING.


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