MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4636
Loc: Orlando, FL
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This lounge is for the system known as 90L, currently located in the Eastern Atlantic near 30W. Long range models range from moving it due west for the most part.
The lounge is for making your best guess at what a system may do either using the models or any other method.
The model (in total fantasy mode around 300 hours out) is suggesting a southeast impact near Florida or the Carolinas, keeps it further south, possibly through the Caribbean. HRWF turns it more northward sooner implying out to sea as a fish spinner (This is probably the most likely outcome).
None of the models can be taken seriously until... initialization (Initial model position) appears to be consistently correct, a trend verifies, and there is a real low level circulation.
I don't expect development becomes a real probability until sometime early next week.
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ChrisS
Registered User
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Posts: 9
Loc: Lake Buena Vista, FL
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This morning in 8AM update on NOAA site tropical update page, 90L is missing (the yellow 20% circle is gone). In it's place is a new 20% circle just off the coast of Africa (quite a distance from where 90L was at 8PM yesterday's update). So does this mean 90L is gone and we currently have a new invest? I have not seen this happen. Perhaps I am spending too much time worrying about invests which are really just guesses. Very confusing.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 952
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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It is mentioned in both the outlook and discussion. They've simply lumped it in with the wave that has just emerged from Africa. There is abundant moisture over the entire basin now with a weak to slightly moderate SAL north of the tropical Atlantic. Things look like they will begin to percolate in the coming few days.
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Michael
PWS
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allan
Weather Master
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Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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The reliable EURO takes it into the Caribbean, an track, but yesterday it had it north of the islands, so until we get a consistent pattern, I'm not buying into anything yet. What's happening with 90L is simple. The disturbance was connected with a wave that was just identified by the last night, though some already knew it was a wave. The split between the wave and the disturbance (90L), is causing the convection to elongate and dissipate, now the new wave off of Africa should merge with 90L and create a new feature, but still probably called 90L. The track is unknown, but I find it highly likely the ridge holds and steers whatever forms, if it forms westward. Can't give an idea of exactly where it will go, it's too early, but the trend on the models and steering favors a westward to northwestward motion for the next 5 days, a slow progress at that. People from Maine down to the GOM coastline should just eye this for now until or IF something forms out of this mess.
(Edited for clarity.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Jul 30 2010 01:37 PM)
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ChrisS
Registered User
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Posts: 9
Loc: Lake Buena Vista, FL
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Allan, I see. The 2PM update just made the circle bigger - eventually the yellow circle should stretch from the coast of Africa to the Bahamas, just to be safe LOL.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml
I am watching these things too closely these days, worried about the end of the world they keep predicting will "come soon, so don't relax yet". At least there is sanity here. I guess it's best to wait until something actually develops before worrying about the models.
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