Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


90L's remnants are now inland, nothing developed. A generally quiet Atlantic is likely until later in August.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 271 (Zeta) , Major: 334 (Laura) Florida - Any: 1020 (Michael) Major: 1020 (Michael)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Gaston Forecast Lounge
      #89313 - Wed Sep 01 2010 10:42 AM

UPDATE at 02/21Z: System degenerated into a remnant tropical low.

UPDATE: TD9 upgraded to Tropical Storm Gaston at 01/21Z.

This morning Invest 98L in the east central Atlantic located about 1,700 miles to the east of the Leeward Islands at 01/15Z was upgraded to Tropical Depression Nine with winds of 30kts and pressure at 1006MB. Long range models currently move the system west to west northwest at 15-20 knots and eventually intensify it to hurricane strength by Monday (perhaps earlier).

This lounge is for making your best guess at what this system may do, either using the models or any other method.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Sep 02 2010 05:51 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #89315 - Wed Sep 01 2010 10:57 AM

Initial Floater images this morning show "Gaston" really beginning to get his act together. Also have noted that "He" is a little lower during his formulation period. Will this allow him to stay south and continue West with less influence from the High that is steering Earl and Fiona?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
weatherpilot
Unregistered




Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge [Re: Wingman51]
      #89382 - Thu Sep 02 2010 11:45 PM

Gaston is toast according to NHC, no further advisories at this time.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
vaughn
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2
Loc: Southeast Florida
Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge [Re: weatherpilot]
      #89387 - Fri Sep 03 2010 09:26 AM

Can someone explain what happened to Gaston? Just yesterday some models had it reving up to Cat 2, yet today the picture suddenly looks very different.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
vonkamp
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 8
Loc: Green Cove Springs, FL
Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge [Re: vaughn]
      #89388 - Fri Sep 03 2010 09:34 AM

If it were to re-generate, would it still be called Gaston?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 186
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge [Re: vonkamp]
      #89389 - Fri Sep 03 2010 09:50 AM

Quote:

If it were to re-generate, would it still be called Gaston?




Mostly likely. It is a judgement call on the part of the NHC as to whether it is the same system.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge [Re: vonkamp]
      #89390 - Fri Sep 03 2010 10:05 AM

Normally, yes - as long as the original system can be tracked as a separate entity - but there have been exceptions in the past few years where what appeared to be the same system was given a new name. In this case though, I'd suspect that the name Gaston would be retained if the system intensifies.
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Jasonch
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 42
Loc: Texas
Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge [Re: vaughn]
      #89391 - Fri Sep 03 2010 10:13 AM

I believe Gaston's problem was alot of dry air more so than shear. I do believe the farther west he gets he may have a chance to regenerate and could still reach hurricane strenght sometime next week. As of 5am this morning the NHC had it at 10% chance of developement and at 8am it was up to 40%. So he may already be starting to get in a more favorable enviorment. We shall see.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge [Re: Jasonch]
      #89396 - Fri Sep 03 2010 07:55 PM

It looks like Gaston has generated a big blob of convection near the center. I think it will be reclassified soon

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
flanewscameraman
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 32
Loc: Palm Beach County, FLA
Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #89399 - Sat Sep 04 2010 08:23 AM

If Gaston reforms, and is reclassified, are any of the models showing a possible threat to Florida in the long term?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
vaughn
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2
Loc: Southeast Florida
Re: TD9 Forecast Lounge [Re: flanewscameraman]
      #89405 - Sat Sep 04 2010 07:57 PM

The SFWMD page currently shows most of the models tracking south of Florida. SFWMD Gaston

Edited by vaughn (Sat Sep 04 2010 07:58 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Gaston Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #89411 - Sun Sep 05 2010 02:37 PM

At 18Z, the Gaston system was located near 17.1N 52.3W and convection was starting to wrap around the center. Although the system is still quite weak, the developmental environment is becoming a little more favorable as shear begins to decline.

Models offer a variety of solutions, and because of that uncertainty, the eventual strength and track is still uncertain - except near term motion toward the west seems like a certainty. SHIP and the BAM suite develop the system into a hurricane just south of Puerto Rico in three days. The 05/12Z GFDL takes the system well to the south of Hispaniola as a tropical storm while the 05/18Z UKMET brings the system close to southern Jamaica. Finally, the 05/12Z HWRF take the system along the south coast of Puerto Rico, then through the Mona Passage to just off the north coast of the Dominican Republic as a tropical storm in 5 days.
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 913
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Gaston Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #89412 - Sun Sep 05 2010 05:55 PM

It's interesting seeing the Gaston system persist while being surrounded by dry air. There is an Upper Level Low centered just North of PR and the DR which is leading Gaston, but it looks to be just far enough away that any southerly shear will remain away from the Gaston system. The SAL is not strong at the moment and there is moisture working its way westward over the tropical Atlantic. The wave over Africa is already showing a hint of circulation, so we'll see what happens to that when it emerges into the Atlantic. Meanwhile, the old frontal trough over the northern GOM is generating some more rain for North-Central FL after a week of very dry air and no rain.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 5/1/0


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1000
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Gaston Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #89419 - Mon Sep 06 2010 08:41 AM

Some convective activity is beginning on the south of the center, and one cell is fighting shear on the east. The west side is clearly is where the moisture is. If this system can generate and maintain convection on the south and moisten up its east side and if shear from the east relaxes, it can develop.

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Jasonch
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 42
Loc: Texas
Re: Gaston Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #89423 - Mon Sep 06 2010 10:24 AM

I believe the UKMET was the only model forecasting a significant hurricane in the carribean heading toward the gulf. Do you believe that solution is possible or way out in left field.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1000
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Gaston Forecast Lounge [Re: Jasonch]
      #89427 - Mon Sep 06 2010 11:18 AM

Not much improvement in the last several hours. the same two areas of convection persist, but no growth. If anything the system looks more stressed.

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 14752

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center