MichaelA
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I'm seeing a broad circulation centered near 26N; 87W with smaller vortices rotating around it. I'm not entirely convinced that there really is a definite, closed circulation yet.
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Michael
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cieldumort
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Recon has just punched through the exposed LLC situated near 25.9N 87.9W and is now verifying solid WSW winds on this leg of their flight. So far, the results are consistent with a closed low.
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MichaelA
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Quote:
Recon has just punched through the exposed LLC situated near 25.9N 87.9W and is now verifying solid WSW winds on this leg of their flight. So far, the results are consistent with a closed low.
I see that, but it looks like a vortex that is rotating around a broader circulation. Either that, or it's moving south.
Floater RGB Loop
That "center" may be starting to gel as it appears in the last two frames now. Looks elongated E-W though.
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Michael
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Edited by MichaelA (Sat Jun 23 2012 05:59 PM)
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MikeC
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Seems like a second vortex northeast of the one seeming to move south, just along the edge of the convection. But, as ceil said, this may be an illusion.
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cieldumort
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Michael, I'm thinking that is an optical illusion, and that there is most likely only one, primary center now, and it is the large, exposed LLC with multiple embedded, swirling eddies. Based on the flight so far, the eddies appear to be having little to no impact on the overall closed circulation, just transient swirls (snapshot below).
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MichaelA
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There are definitely some interesting dynamics going on there. With the center so exposed, I'm just having fun watching it all unfold. The didn't pull the trigger on the 2PM outlook, so pending the recon data, it will take a special advisory later this afternoon if the data confirms a closed, stable circulation.
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Michael
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cieldumort
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Yeah, other vortices indeed, and in deference to both of you, it appears that the broad LLC with these embedded swirls may now in fact be in the process of passing the torch to the northeasternmost swirl. Recon passing through just found a lower pressure than the first pass through what was arguably the primary LLC not one hour ago. Sloppy system, but probably not so sloppy as to preclude an upgrade to TD, at a minimum, IMHO.
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weathernet
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Quote:
Quote:
Recon has just punched through the exposed LLC situated near 25.9N 87.9W and is now verifying solid WSW winds on this leg of their flight. So far, the results are consistent with a closed low.
I see that, but it looks like a vortex that is rotating around a broader circulation. Either that, or it's moving south.
That "center" may be starting to gel as it appears in the last two frames now. Looks elongated E-W though.
Michael, I am tending to agree with you in that we have seen multiple vort centers try and vertically stack with the mid level, but only to have upper level shear ultimatly impact its tropical development, and thus ARE seeing tropical force winds and falling pressures but thus far been more "baroclinic in nature" and practically entirely on the systems east side. On the other hand, recon is certainly measuring the necessary winds to close off a center, yet where is the co-located convection?
Therefore out of necessity, and the "PC" thing to do, I assume that will likely very soon put out a Special Cyclone Update that will include applicable warnings for Gale/Tropical Storm force winds, tides, & flooding, however my guess is that present condition of 96L along with recent history, the system will initially be labeled as "Sub-Tropical" , but with expectation of continued slow transition to becoming a tropical entity.
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danielw
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NHC must be reading your posts. Just kidding.
This is 13 minutes old.
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
235 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
ELONGATED MONSOONAL LIKE CIRCULATION PERSISTING ACROSS THE GULF
THIS MORNING...WITH MAJORITY OF WEATHER AND WIND CONFINED TO E
SIDE OF CIRCULATION. STRONG SLY FLOW ON THIS E SIDE WAS VERIFIED
BY SEVERAL SHIP OBS AND WITH BUOY 42003 FLUCTUATING MID 20'S TO
BRIEF MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS...AND SEAS UP TO 15 FT.
BASED ON
THIS AND VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS AREA...AND WITH
GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON GALE FORCE WINDS IN Boundary Layer...HAVE
ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR THE E SEMICIRCLE OF LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING ACROSS N QUADRANT THIS EVENING. AS
WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS MONSOONAL TYPE EVOLUTION...GALE
FORCE OR STRONGEST WINDS INITIALLY WILL REMAIN ON PERIPHERY OF
THE CIRCULATION...AND GRADUALLY FILL IN ACROSS N AND NW QUADS AS
MOISTURE WRAPS IN TOWARD THE CENTER.
LLVL SWIRL CLEARLY EVIDENT
IN VIS IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE SHED TO THE SW WITH
ANOTHER CENTER LIKELY TO BECOME THE DOMINANT CENTER TO THE NE OF
THIS SWIRL...AND CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION.
ALTHOUGH ALL THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW ELONGATED STRETCHING OF MOISTURE FIELD OF
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ONLY THE REMAINS
ADAMANT IN SHEARING OUT SIGNIFICANT LLVL VORTICITY TO THE
NE...WITH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE 00Z RUN PRETTY EVENLY
DISTRIBUTED ALL ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS BY 96 HOURS.
HAVE THUS
CREATED WIND AND PRES GRIDS STRONGLY WEIGHTED ON ...AND
USED A 50-50 BLEND OF ECWAVE AND WWIII FOR SEAS.
IT MAY TAKE A
FULL 48 HOURS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO ATTAIN A TRULY TROPICAL TC
APPEARANCE...BUT GALE FORCE OR NEAR GALE WINDS...WITH SHOWERS
SQUALLS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE E AND NE PORTION
OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND SPREAD ACROSS THE NE
AND N CENTRAL GULF COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL ZONES. BUOY 42003
NOW REPORTING 14 FT SEAS AT 9 SECONDS WHICH WILL PROPAGATE INTO
THE N CENTRAL GULF COASTLINES...AND COMBINE WITH STRONG E TO SE
WIND FLOW FOR HIGH WATER LEVELS LEADING TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND EROSION.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Edited by danielw (Sat Jun 23 2012 06:51 PM)
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NPR16
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We Have Debby.
Please try not to post one liner posts. And explain your sources when making storm upgrades.
NHC has not declared 96L a Depression or Storm... Yet!` danielw
Edited by danielw (Sat Jun 23 2012 07:00 PM)
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NPR16
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quote]We Have Debby.
The GOM Low has not been upgraded. That link Still shows 96L as 96L. When the system is upgraded it will move to "invest_al042012.invest" and become Debby.~danielw
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/faq.php#rules
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Edited by danielw (Sat Jun 23 2012 07:23 PM)
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weathernet
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Quote:
... it appears that the broad LLC with these embedded swirls may now in fact be in the process of passing the torch to the northeasternmost swirl. Recon passing through just found a lower pressure than the first pass through what was arguably the primary LLC not one hour ago. Sloppy system, but probably not so sloppy as to preclude an upgrade to TD, at a minimum, IMHO.
Ciel, just as you indicated above...., this is ultimately why I see the solution as more or less ultimately "playing out". Really is fascinating watching both - how 96L has continued to evolve, and how the models have attempting to guess "how" 96L will evolve. While the prior 0Z and this mornings' 12Z model runs have practically all other models (especially the EURO) depict nearly immediate development and then a west motion to eventually impact Texas, the has stubbornly predicted a less deep cyclone to evenually move easward and eventually out to sea.
Models are based on on initialized point and then to "follow the bouncing ball" with of course the net outcome being the longer term location and intensity. Where I think the other models have at least thus far gotten it wrong, is that an ultimate westward push of a tropical system would need be based upon 3 things, 1st: Having a vertically coherant tropical cyclone, 2nd: Upper level conditions to remain conducive for such a tropical system to maintain itself or strengthen, and 3rd: based upon the prior 2 points, to have mid level steering then in place to push the system westward ( or WSW'ward ). Well, thus far near term models do anticipate the U.S. Plains High to build eastward, however 96L up to this point seems to have migrated north and east over the prior 2-3 days. Even though upper level winds have relaxed a little and turned more southerly (than the prior westerly), I do not believe it is yet vertically developed, nor does the upper low cutting off in the W. Gulf seem to be dropping to the south to enchance 96L's west side outflow.
My guess at outcome? Probably a Special Subtropical Storm Advisory between now and 5:00pm, followed by gradual moderately improved upper air conditions that will result in Debby being named "Tropical" finally perhaps tomorrow or Monday at some point farther North and East of present location. Then given its moderate strength, less than perfect upper conditions, and Northeast'ward relocation, for Debbie to stall somewhere along the N.E. Gulf (Florida) coastline with perhaps 45-55mph winds, than possibly pushed S.E. ahead of the advancing mid level ridge, and then weaken over N. Central Fla while the mid level energy slips to the northeast. (If a stronger Debbie were to develop, only then might a 1985 "Elena like" motion towards the west perhaps occur)
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MikeC
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Yeah best track has it as Debby, and it triggered the auto upgrade warning on the left bar.
http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al042012.invest
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NPR16
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Quote:
We Have Debby.
Please try not to post one liner posts. And explain your sources when making storm upgrades.
NHC has not declared 96L a Depression or Storm... Yet!` danielw
Denis Philips @ABC ACTION NEWS Met is my Source. I think he is a credible one?? Sorry I was the first to post being a Newbie.
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danielw
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What about the possibility of an unstacked cyclone. Low level moves West and mid and upper level moves East.
That would explain the split in the Euro and model. It would also explain what we are seeing on the sats right now.
Also remember the NE Quadrant is not the strongest wind field in a westward moving storm. The strongest winds are found in the Right Front Quadrant with respect to motion of the system. NE Quad becomes NW Quad when moving west. This explains, to a degree, why RECON found the max winds on the NW Inbound leg.
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danielw
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ATCF has upgraded 96L to Debby.
Thanks NPR16.
It's Official now and Advisories will be out Shortly.
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NPR16
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Quote:
ATCF has upgraded 96L to Debby.
Thanks NPR16.
It's Official now and Advisories will be out Shortly.
I see your point btw sorry about the one liner. If it's is allowed We have a Weather chat every night at 7pm. We talk to the NWS and other weather related guest. I will post the link. We would love to have all of yall. If that's cool
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NPR16
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Quote:
What about the possibility of an unstacked cyclone. Low level moves West and mid and upper level moves East.
That would explain the split in the Euro and model. It would also explain what we are seeing on the sats right now.
Also remember the NE Quadrant is not the strongest wind field in a westward moving storm. The strongest winds are found in the Right Front Quadrant with respect to motion of the system. NE Quad becomes NW Quad when moving west. This explains, to a degree, why RECON found the max winds on the NW Inbound leg.
think the is seeing the trof the nw ???
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cieldumort
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Recon has determined that the original LLC, and not its satellite eddies, is the primary center. This center, fixed at 25.9N 87.8333W, will probably meander or loop about in the general area, and may yet give way to more reformations.
As of 4PM EDT, recon is now headed into the deep convective leg in the eastern semicircle, where surface observations have occasionally come in today at or above 40MPH, gusting up to about 50+
Despite the fact that the western semicircle is relatively dry, the cyclone will likely be designated Tropical Storm Debby at 5PM. This dryness is mostly the result of ongoing shear being imparted on the cyclone from an upper level low in the northwestern Gulf, making it a sheared tropical cyclone, with some similarities to both subtropical storms and monsoon depressions; not a fully "classic" TC.
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MikeC
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A huge band of rainfall is coming onshore to southwest Florida and raising a few tornado warnings to boot. It may be a rough and rainy weekend here in Central/South Florida.
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