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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: berrywr]
      #92979 - Tue Jun 26 2012 08:34 PM

Based on satellite alone, it seems the center is moving sse, perhaps the high is having more influence than expected, still the center is completely void of convection, so that doesn't matter so much.

Jacksonville is getting effects from the second tropical storm in a single year, which is very unusual in itself.

Edit, radar also makes it appear to be moving south southeast, actually back over the Gulf at the moment.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #92981 - Tue Jun 26 2012 10:25 PM

Tampa radar confirms that Debby is now well south of Cedar Key and moving to the south southeast - still over water. Convection around the weak center and in the main feeder band is picking up a bit. The rain area to the east northeast of the center is also sliding slowly to the south. It will be interesting to see how NHC decides to resolve this unexpected change.

Whats left of the center of TD Debby probably will cut across north of Tampa and over Orlando to the Cape. The GFS did a pretty good job with this storm.
ED


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DaViking
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Reged: Tue
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Loc: Crystal River, FL
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92982 - Tue Jun 26 2012 11:35 PM

I don't post much.

But looking at doppler out of Tampa, it apears to me that perhaps the low has, or is in the process of dissipating at least at the lower levels as of 11:30 pm.

Boy, this has probably been the craziest storm that I have ever tracked. It just will not do what the models say it should. Yesterday I think the GFS at one point showed the low moving SE and S after weakening and then meandering in the gulf for a while, strengthening a bit, then moving across the peninsula and slowly up the East coast. I believe it was the 12Z and 18Z 6/25/12 runs.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Jun 27 2012 12:18 AM)


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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
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Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: DaViking]
      #92983 - Wed Jun 27 2012 01:50 AM

I an in st petersburg and as of right now wind switched to the northwest and gusty so if there is still a center it passed by in the past half hour. it must be chugging along now still to the southeast or it got absorbed by the trough. Not sure which.

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DaViking
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 23
Loc: Crystal River, FL
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: DaViking]
      #92984 - Wed Jun 27 2012 03:02 AM

After taking one last look at the Doppler radar out of Tampa at just short of 3:00 am. I assume that the low has either dissipated or has been absorbed by the trough. I presume that Debby is no more, and the NHC may issue the final advisory on Debby at 5 am.

According to satellite imagey. I assume the center is somewhere between Hernando and Orange County Florida. And the remnant low is moving SE at a good clip now in a South Easterly Direction. It is hard to tell, and looks like an early Spring Cold front crossing the state.

--------------------
Lived in Florida 31 years and have never been in a hurricane. I lived in Miami in 1992, but was out of country. Sorry Miami. Then moved north in 1999. again, sorry Miami.


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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 129
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: DaViking]
      #92985 - Wed Jun 27 2012 03:30 AM

since there was no intermediate advisory at 2 am i assume they will cease advisories on this at 5 am

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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 129
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Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: dolfinatic]
      #92986 - Wed Jun 27 2012 04:48 AM

I stand corrected. 5am advisory is out. I certainly do not see a LLC but i guess there is one. Still think that debby is on verge of death. This one was definitly an interesting one to follow. Time to watch the east atlantic wave.

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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 159
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: dolfinatic]
      #92987 - Wed Jun 27 2012 08:29 AM Attachment (107 downloads)

I wouldn't count Debby out yet. There seems to be two very distinct LLC's on Visible Satellite runs. On the Jun 27th 11:45 UTC shot one looks to be at 80.5W and 29.5N, while the second appears to be at 81.25W and 28.5N. The NHC is picking up on the former I believe as the storm's center, but these could be vorticies within an elongated center of circulation, or perhaps a decoupling/slant of the storm's low and mid level circulations.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
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Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: JoshuaK]
      #92988 - Wed Jun 27 2012 08:37 AM

There is a vortex immediately west of the blow up of convection. What has been interesting about this system all along, structurally, is that it has had extremely long tenticles that has grabbed and drawn energy from hundreds of miles away and it is still doing it now. This is why, I guess, that an extremely sheard system, over run with dry air, has survived and fostered destructive bands of weather displaced hundreds of miles from the LLC. It also has commanded thousands of square miles of weather at any one time. Not too bad for a system that peaked, so far, at 60 MPH. Goes to show that it does not have to be a super storm to reap chaos and havoc on society.

--------------------
doug


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HeadacheslayerInFL
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
Loc: Central FL
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #92989 - Wed Jun 27 2012 11:29 AM

Hi all, new here, not new to FL (native). Wish I had known about this forum earlier....I get gut feelings about storms. Debby was one of them. And I agree with those who say not to write her off. This storm is off her meds Looking at some of the latest spaghetti plots, some have her doing a loop (or 3) and then coming back for more. My gut isn't telling me much right now (my head though--oy. I hate storm-related migraines). So I'll be keeping a weather eye over the next few days, and of course, see what you all have to say

--------------------
Headacheslayer, Central Florida
It's not THAT the wind blows, it's WHAT the wind blows--Ron "Tater Salad" White


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
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Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #92990 - Wed Jun 27 2012 01:34 PM

I was surprised there wasn't a 2 am intermediate advisory released; that said, I was still up at that time and I couldn't find Debby on IR satellite or radar; I'm betting NHC couldn't find her either and what observations at 2 am were suggesting is either the center reformed farther east or the center split in half; one piece moving SSE towards Tampla; the other continuing to move ENE closer to convection which was over the Atlantic. I looked at the buoy data and there was no help there either. It boiled down to two observation sites; one near Tampa and the other was St. Augustine for lowest pressure. We all thought last night she was moving towards Tampa due to what NHC believed was a gust front...I think a part of her did and dissipated there; the other is where plots had her from the start. One note...a thunderstorm complex is capable of developing vorticity maximums or mesoscale lows...last night NWSFO Miami had to issue wind advisories for their neck of the woods for sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 and 45 mph...well removed from Debby...but not gravity wakes which is a subject for another day.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: HeadacheslayerInFL]
      #92991 - Wed Jun 27 2012 01:43 PM

Ron White...we had a high school principal who got himself in trouble for saying "You can't fix, stupid!" He was eventually reinstated after students protested...let me say, welcome to the website...Ed and Mike run this show and their what I call good people. I'm one of the administrators on the Facebook page so you may see my comments on both pages. The problem with Debby is the storm never had a real chance had coming completely together before synoptic (big scale) features had something to say about the future of the storm; worse, we have in the met business something called COLs...and two big upper ridges, one unusually deep trough for the time of year; a rogue upper low in the GOM, a surface front supported by that trough make for interesting forecast challenges. Living in FL you know hurricanes inflict their damage with winds; depressions and tropical storms inflict their damage with copious rain; safe to say a good chunk of N FL and S GA won't be experiencing any droughts any time soon but say hello to some serious humidity as temps soar to near 100 later in the week; again welcome to the site and take care! Bill

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 382
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: HeadacheslayerInFL]
      #92992 - Wed Jun 27 2012 02:16 PM

welcome to the site. I know what you mean about 'feelings' versus the models. I noticed a couple have her looping back, but those are the BAM suite which has really done a horrible job on the main part of this storm from the beginning. Don't see her doing a loop now that she seems caught in a pretty solid easterly flow. Stranger things have happened with this storm but those models have little 'cred' with Debby!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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GlenJohnson
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 61
Loc: Waldo Florida
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #92993 - Wed Jun 27 2012 08:01 PM

Welcome. Don't have a clue anymore about Debby. Powers that be said look out Texas, I was one of those that said it was coming to Florida. I'm just north of Gainesville, and was sure it was going to come right at me last night, but when it hit land, it dropped south, and went across Ocala. Go figure. I wouldn't doubt it loops around and hit's NY.

--------------------
Be civil to all; sociable to many; familiar with few; friend to one; enemy to none.
Benjamin Franklin
Card carrying Storm Spotter


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
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Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: GlenJohnson]
      #92994 - Thu Jun 28 2012 12:43 PM

Debby is looking better today on satellite imagery than she has for a long time. Then again, does she have a real center of circulation or is that just a ball of convection like always Debby is not one to follow the plan.

Models did show her reintensifying where she is now and she is a "yellow circle" on the NHC Home Page sharing an equal 10% chance with the Atlantic Wave that is still battling it's way west through negative conditions.

Both interesting.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

Will the NHC upgrade her again?

I'm more curious on the Tropical Wave, but I don't think we have seen the last of Debby.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: LoisCane]
      #92995 - Thu Jun 28 2012 02:04 PM

Why wouldn't Debby be come a subtropical storm...isn't that appropriate if the low is a baroclinic low? And, isn't that what this now is? Inquiring mind wants to know.

--------------------
doug


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2184
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Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: LoisCane]
      #92996 - Thu Jun 28 2012 02:39 PM

Quote:

Debby is looking better today on satellite imagery than she has for a long time. Then again, does she have a real center of circulation or is that just a ball of convection like always Debby is not one to follow the plan.




Debby's convection, as has always been the case, is largely weighted to one side (in the case of the past few days, on her northern half). Her convective "balls" have rarely been indicative of where her actual center of circulation is, but rather, just where the preponderance of most inclement weather is occurring at any given time.

As can be seen in the ASCAT pass below from earlier today, Debby has just about shed all of her frontal mesh, and has redeveloped a pretty well defined surface circulation.



The above image shows surface winds easily in the 35-40 knot range, especially considering that ASCAT has a well documented low bias.

Given that there is still arguably some meaningful frontal interaction, however lessened it has become this morning, it may be prudent for NHC to hold back on restarting advisories just yet, but it is probably getting to be a close call.


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #92997 - Thu Jun 28 2012 11:43 PM

Extra-tropical storm Debby is not tropical; looking at enhanced water vapor imagery reveals her energy source is baroclinic (derive energy from contrast in temperatures) and there is strong subsidence in the wake of the longwave trough which is now supporting the system. For a PTC to regain tropical cyclone status; the upper support has to weaken and/or leave behind the low level circulation and thunderstorms have to once again develop near the center and that simply is not the case. This evening as the PTC accelerates to the ENE the system once again has become elongated as subsidence is impinging it from the north. It is not uncommon for depressions to strengthen via temperature contrast as post-tropical cyclones which is the case here. Looking at shear analysis; for the near future; this cyclone has zero chance of obtaining tropical cyclone characteristics.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2184
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Debby Forecast Lounge [Re: berrywr]
      #92998 - Fri Jun 29 2012 01:59 AM

The entry above related to what was happening early yesterday morning through afternoon, when several of the processes necessary for tropical regeneration were starting to come into play, and for a few hours, a complete regeneration was starting to look promising ... but, no doubt, six, ten hours later and we are now looking at a very different situation.

Here is a look at Debby from about 1845 on the 28th:


And from 2215


As can be seen in the images above, moderate to deep convection had wrapped around Debby's then tight LLC. Additionally, buoy, scatterometer, and phase space analysis strongly suggested that most of the intensification was manifestly subtropical to tropical in nature during that time. A few short hours, but it might make for some interesting post-season reading, if nothing else


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