Current Radar or Satellite Image - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

Colin expected to be short-lived riding up the coasts of the Carolinas. Bonnie now in the East Pac.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Nicholas) , Major: 308 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1361 (Michael) Major: 1361 (Michael)
35.2N 77.0W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1014mb
Ne at 10 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight

Archives 2010s >> 2014 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1

Reged: Mon
Posts: 2132
Loc: Austin, Tx
Gulf of Mexico Invest 98L
      #95277 - Tue Aug 26 2014 01:22 PM

An area of showers and thunderstorms currently stretched NW-SE across the Gulf of Mexico is associated with a "back door" cold front that pushed out over the open waters on Monday.

These showers and storms have started to organize a bit today, and there is a chance of further development, provided the area of low pressure remains over water.

Favoring chances for development, the Gulf of Mexico is currently running above its already toasty climatological norms, and so there is certainly sufficient oceanic heat energy for fuel. Additionally, regional barometric pressure is already somewhat low. Finally, shear over the disturbance itself is not at all prohibitive, with even an upper level high centered across the Gulf.

Detractors include some nearby moderate shear, abundant dry air, and proximity to land.

This is where to put our mid to long range thoughts on this system's potential for further development, intensity, and forecast track. Model output discussions are also appropriate here.

Title changed to reflect addition of Invest tag (98L)

Edited by cieldumort (Wed Aug 27 2014 12:08 PM)

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Weather Analyst

Reged: Thu
Posts: 915
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Gulf of Mexico Invest 98L [Re: cieldumort]
      #95278 - Wed Aug 27 2014 10:03 PM

Looking at this evening's sat loops, the apparent CoC is just East of Brownsville, TX with no significant convection. Appears to be drifting WSW, so I say nothing is developing with this. The area in the Eastern Caribbean? Another "meh." The wave coming off the African coast? Wait and see on that. I'm not expecting much, though.



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Weather Guru

Reged: Mon
Posts: 158
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Gulf of Mexico Invest 98L [Re: MichaelA]
      #95280 - Thu Aug 28 2014 06:58 AM

Looks like the CoC may not have moved that much with 98L last night, with a plume of convection firing up on the Eastern edge of the system this morning.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  

Reged: Mon
Posts: 2132
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Gulf of Mexico Invest 98L [Re: cieldumort]
      #95282 - Thu Aug 28 2014 03:30 PM

As of 2PM CDT Aug 28, the radar indicated center of Invest 98L was tracking across South Padre Island, just off the coast of extreme south Texas, in the vicinity of 26.5N 97.2W.

While it appears that the low will not have enough time over water to become sufficiently organized for classification as a depression, it will still bring rounds of squally weather to the region over the next few days with some of it even extending well inland, as rotation around the low is sending copious Gulf of Mexico moisture northwestward.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1

Extra information
0 registered and 1 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Topic views: 9043

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center