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MikeCAdministrator
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Tropical Storm Bill Lounge
      #95456 - Fri Jun 12 2015 02:46 PM

GFS, Euro and Canadian models show a trough of low pressure over the Northwestern Caribbean and Yucatan which may have a chance to develop next week. 10%

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Jun 15 2015 09:51 PM)


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cieldumort
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Re: 91L over Yucatan Entering Southwest Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #95459 - Sun Jun 14 2015 12:06 AM

The largest concern with 91L is of course the prospect for additional heavy rain where it is needed least.

As 91L is still in its formative stages, and may actually yet not become a bona fide tropical cyclone at all, model runs need to be considered with a great deal of caution. That said, there is substantial agreement that whatever forms is headed for the Texas to Louisiana coast.

Given the degree of ongoing shear over this system, it is plausible that a greater than usual amount of weather will occur in its eastern side, with the western half possibly even seeing only occasional and/or scattered convective precipitation - though still potentially heavy at times.

A worst case scenario would be for 91L to take a more westerly course, and potentially slow down (a few model runs have even suggested a stall right along the coast, or just inland, near/over south Texas). If those models' runs were to verify, more tragic flooding would almost certainly be in the offing. Additionally, 91L has already been the recipient of moisture influx from the flow around East Pac Hurricane Carlos, and this synergy will likely continue for at least a while longer. In fact, should 91L take a southern track into south Texas, this additional inflow from Carlos (or possibly then x-Carlos) could easily continue for days on end. No bueno.

Best case, the center of 91L tracks well to the east of where the majority of May's flooding occurred, and gets lifted up and out of the southern plains post haste.

Spaghetti model spread June 13, 2015


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 91L over Yucatan Entering Southwest Gulf [Re: cieldumort]
      #95463 - Sun Jun 14 2015 08:59 PM

Models are suggesting more rain for a longer period of time than I would have liked today, particularly the Euro. It looks like east Texas is going to get a TON of rain over several days, on top of what they have already had this year.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: 91L over Yucatan Entering Southwest Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #95464 - Mon Jun 15 2015 01:25 AM

System looking rather anemic this evening. Some dry air has wrapped into the system from the southwest and the convection that was near the center has diminished for now. The 15/00Z GFS shows a weak system entering south-central Texas by Tuesday morning. Any rain in central Texas would certainly not be welcomed.
ED


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 91L over Yucatan Entering Southwest Gulf [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95465 - Mon Jun 15 2015 08:09 AM

The GFS model is pushing for a more southern landfall, south of Corpus, which would bring the rains over southeastern Texas to areas that have been dealing with flooding. That combined with soaked SOIl and tropical storm force winds may knock a few trees over.

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cieldumort
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Re: 91L over Yucatan Entering Southwest Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #95468 - Mon Jun 15 2015 01:15 PM

Multiple transient lower level swirls have come and gone along the sharp trof overnight and into the day today, but most recent recon data, scatterometer, and visible satellite imagery suggests that vorticity is starting to coalesce closer to or within the deepest convection. Still, center jumps may continue, possibly even through landfall.

Shear over 91L has come down substantially today, with net effective shear over the system mostly running between 5 to 15 knots area wide. There is a window today and tomorrow for a stronger tropical storm to form than currently forecast by most model runs, which would also tend to pull 91L towards the northern half of the model spread. A somewhat weaker system would tend to favor the more southerly routes, with a very weak system more likely than not to run into extreme northeast Mexico/extreme south Texas (looking less likely now).

Regardless of what 91L ultimately becomes, the single most serious threat is for inland flooding. Large portions of the southern plains have very low flash flood guidance right now.



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JoshuaK
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Re: 91L over Yucatan Entering Southwest Gulf [Re: cieldumort]
      #95471 - Mon Jun 15 2015 02:53 PM

Looking at the 18:15 Visible Satellite Imagery, a center appears to be taking shape at about 92.8W and 25.5N.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 91L over Yucatan Entering Southwest Gulf [Re: JoshuaK]
      #95472 - Mon Jun 15 2015 03:07 PM

High pressure seems to be building up above that center also, later recon should be a bit interesting. I'm betting on a Tropical Storm tonight. Cirrus clouds are moving in the correct pattern also.

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craigm
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Re: 91L over Yucatan Entering Southwest Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #95476 - Mon Jun 15 2015 08:53 PM

Quote:

High pressure seems to be building up above that center also, later recon should be a bit interesting. I'm betting on a Tropical Storm tonight. Cirrus clouds are moving in the correct pattern also.




Recon finding some tropical storm force winds 45 kts-52 mph at the surface

Raw Recon Data
( * ) Denotes suspect data
Time: 00:29:00Z
Coordinates: 26.917N 93.633W
Acft. Static Air Press: 970.4 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 322 m
Extrap. SFC. Press: 1007.0 mb (29.74 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 176° at 50 kts (From the S at 57.5 mph)
Air Temp: 20.5°C (68.9°F)
Dew Pt: 20.5°C (68.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 51 kts (58.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) SFC. Wind: 45 kts (51.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 11 mm/hr (0.43 in/hr)

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