MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4439
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
and Euro are similar moving the system through the northeastern Caribbean then running into a wall of shear int he Caribbean and then Danny getting torn to shreds.
|
craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
|
|
Remarkable consensus. Has anyone ever seen this
with a system that is still 800 miles from the Islands?
--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
|
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 377
Loc: Plant City, Florida
|
|
Am I seeing things or do the last couple of images look a LOT less happy than this morning. Less of an eye and a lot of convection being pushed north of the eye area. It already looks like the eye is open on the south side a bit. SO tiny out there. Can't remember one so small and tightly wound. I could easily see it getting lost in a sea of dry air.
--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3
|
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
|
|
Check track and info for Iris 2001, eventually a major hurricane
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2001/dis/al112001.discus.013.html
track:
http://icons.wxug.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_2001_charts/at200109.gif
--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
|
craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
|
|
Quote:
Am I seeing things or do the last couple of images look a LOT less happy than this morning. Less of an eye and a lot of convection being pushed north of the eye area. It already looks like the eye is open on the south side a bit. SO tiny out there. Can't remember one so small and tightly wound. I could easily see it getting lost in a sea of dry air.
Not seeing the same thing. Looks like setting sun reflecting off the eastern eye wall
with some impressive developing all the way around the center. If this trend continues
Danny could get back to some of the earlier intensity
projections before encountering the inevitable shear.
--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
|
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 377
Loc: Plant City, Florida
|
|
In the past hour or so, it does seem to be intensifying around the eye. I was looking on the Rainbow Loop earlier at right around 16:45 and it looked like the eye was gone...then it returned shortly after on that loop.
--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3
|
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
|
|
Small storms like Danny vary greatly from hour to hour, you take the long view.
They have more fluctuations than bigger storms.
He looks good to me.
Here's a link showing him approaching the Islands
http://hokukea.soest.hawaii.edu/satellit...;animtype=flash
--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4439
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Evening model run walkthrough:
The bad thing about this afternoon 12Z and later models today is that it initialized before Donny was a hurricane, so it still is treating it like a 50mph Tropical Storm. However, even then Danny is so small there may be large errors (even more than usual) in the models
- 18Z :Initialized too weak
- Sunday: Weakens as it nears the Islands
- Monday: Over St. Kitts/Nevas/Montserrat then Weakens further
- Tuesday: Over Puerto Rico on Tuesday
- Wednesday: Remnants over the Dominican Republic
- Thursday: loses it completely
- 12Z (Euro) again, initialized a bit too weak
- Sunday: Weakening Quickly
- Monday: Crossed over Guadaloupe (Weak)
- Wednesday: Loses it
- Sat Aug 29th Wave east of Danny is east of the Bahamas here, but recurving and very strong
-
- Monday: Misses Caribbean Islands to the north
- Wendesday: Over Turks and Caicos in the Bahamas
- Thursday Morning: Over Grand Bahama Island
- Thursday Night: Over Nassau
- Then Recurves out to sea, missing Bermuda to the Northwest
HRWF (18z)
- Sunday: Weakens Danny Greatly
- Tuesday: Over St. Kitts (very weak)
- Wednesday: Weak, just Northeast of Puerto Rico
(18z)
- Sunday: Weakens Danny Greatly
- Monday: Misses Islands to the Northeast (very weak)
- Tuesday: North of the Virgin Islands (regaining some strength)
Danny's almost out of the now, so it'll have less moisture to work with. Most of the models agree that by late Saturday and Sunday Danny will hit some hostile conditions and weaken greatly. And with the small core it will likely weaken quickly. Recon tomorrow afternoon should be interesting
The track is still pretty good, it's following it fairly well, maybe a hair north.
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4439
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Mini model update.
6z and Euro haven't changed much from earlier, weaken drastically Sunday, through th enorthern islands and then Danny weakening greatly, getting torn to shreds by shear and dry air.
Biggest outlier: The run which shows it missing PR/VI islands to the north and then regaining strength on the last frame.
Danny is still worth watching, but the 's track is still spot on based on the information available. I do think they are being a bit weak on current intensity, though. When some of the planes arrives this afternoon, and especially tomorrow afternoon the accuracy should get much better.
The next run, 12Z, was initialized with 100mph winds, but it will be several hours before the runs start to show up.
|
Owlguin
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 64
|
|
So what are the chances Danny stays north of the Islands and remains slightly intact, like the is indicating? It does seem to be tracking a little north of the projection.
|
craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
|
|
Quote:
So what are the chances Danny stays north of the Islands and remains slightly intact, like the is indicating? It does seem to be tracking a little north of the projection.
Hurricane models have come a long way with the OFCL track verifying in the 90% (educated guess) range in the short term (3 days). So if you look at the cone right now at three days out skirting the NE Islands puts you approximately in the top third of the Cone. So 33.3% +/- 5% (for the 90% assumed verification) of 100% puts you around a 28.3% to 38.3% chance of Danny moving North of the Islands at day three. That is about as unscientific of an analysis as you will get on this site. Trust the three day cone.
We will have to see what is left of Danny after running the shear gauntlet and if he has to navigate the Cordillera Central in the Dominican Republic you can say goodbye -- that mountain range is 10,000'.
--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
|
craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
|
|
Quote:
Quote:
So what are the chances Danny stays north of the Islands and remains slightly intact, like the is indicating? It does seem to be tracking a little north of the projection.
Hurricane models have come a long way with the OFCL track verifying in the 90% (educated guess) range in the short term (3 days). So if you look at the cone right now at three days out skirting the NE Islands puts you approximately in the top third of the Cone. So 33.3% +/- 5% (for the 90% assumed verification) of 100% puts you around a 28.3% to 38.3% chance of Danny moving North of the Islands at day three. That is about as unscientific of an analysis as you will get on this site. Trust the three day cone.
We will have to see what is left of Danny after running the shear gauntlet and if he has to navigate the Cordillera Central in the Dominican Republic you can say goodbye -- that mountain range is 10,000'.
Actually I messed that up. If I am saying the three day cone verifies 90% of the time (assuming again) that only leaves 5% on either side of the OFCL track so 5% chance it stays north of the Islands at day three final answer.
--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4439
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Skipped a day when Danny took a nosedive intensity wise. It's holding this morning, with convection starting to fire back over the center again.
Models: 1 2 3 effort coming
(6z):
Tomorrow Morning: Danny over Guadeloupe
Tuesday: Weaker, starting to lsoe, south of PR
Wed: Directly over Hispaniola, falling apart
Thur: Weak system (98L) east of Danny over northeast leewards
Mon (Aug 31): 98L East of Bahamas, then recurves out to sea, wave currently over Africa over NE Caribbean islands (weak)
Euro (0z): Identical to up until Wednesday
Has 98L staying north of islands then recurves it out to sea. (As a much larger storm than Danny)
Currently none of the models shows the 3 Atlantic systems as a threat to the continental US.
Edited by cieldumort (Sun Aug 23 2015 02:07 PM)
|
JoshuaK
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 158
Loc: Lakeland, FL
|
|
I see some convection firing over what appears to be an otherwise exposed CoC at about 16.6N and 64W circa the 20:15 UTC Visible Satellite Imagery.
|
Previous
Search Results
Next
Threaded
[Re: 
Edit
Reply
Quote
