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The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing heavy training rain with isolated tornadoes also possible today in S TX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 336 (Nicholas) , Major: 351 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1405 (Michael) Major: 1405 (Michael)
 


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cieldumort
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Watching SW GOM - NW Caribbean Crossover TD ONE-E
      #96321 - Mon Jun 06 2016 03:28 PM



Under normal circumstances, we would relegate East Pacific TCs to "Other Basins," with the exception of Hawaii. However, East Pac TD ONE has formed just southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with movement to the northeast.

Last night NHC development odds were running 20% over 5-Days, but it has organized rapidly throughout the day today, and in doing so, has become a Depression much closer to the Gulf of Mexico, while still caught up in a flow regime directing systems from southwest to northeast, extending from a fetch in the far eastern Pacific, across the Western Atlantic.

Should TD ONE-E be named prior to making landfall along extreme southwest Mexico, it's name will be Agatha. If it were to then cross over into the Atlantic basin sufficiently intact, it would retain that name. Conversely, if it were not to be named while in the Pacific, or would lose its identity while over land, but then regenerate anew while in the Gulf of Mexico and become a storm, it would receive a name from the Atlantic basin's list of names.

NHC will be starting advisories on ONE-E shortly.


Title edited to reflect updated steering currents that suggest a more ENE track is also possible.

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Jun 06 2016 04:55 PM)


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cjzydeco
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Reged: Mon
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Loc: Sebastian, FL
Re: Watching SW GOM - NW Caribbean Crossover TD ONE-E [Re: cieldumort]
      #96329 - Mon Jun 06 2016 07:27 PM

How often has something like that happened in the past? (A named storm passing intact from one basin into the other?)

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craigm
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Re: Watching SW GOM - NW Caribbean Crossover TD ONE-E [Re: cjzydeco]
      #96332 - Mon Jun 06 2016 09:02 PM

According to Wikipedia only ten times in recorded history. Atlantic to Pacific or visa versa. Systems that dissipate and reform aren't counted

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DaViking
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Re: Watching SW GOM - NW Caribbean Crossover TD ONE-E [Re: cieldumort]
      #96334 - Mon Jun 06 2016 10:14 PM

I thought surviving cyclones would end up being renamed when they entered another basin.

My memory serves me 1996 Atlantic Hurricane Cesar crossed Nicaragua and Honduras and was renamed Douglas upon entering the Pacific.


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cieldumort
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Re: Watching SW GOM - NW Caribbean Crossover TD ONE-E [Re: DaViking]
      #96336 - Mon Jun 06 2016 10:47 PM

Quote:


I thought surviving cyclones would end up being renamed when they entered another basin.

My memory serves me 1996 Atlantic Hurricane Cesar crossed Nicaragua and Honduras and was renamed Douglas upon entering the Pacific.




This was NHC policy until 2001. Now, if a Tropical Cyclone retains enough identity to be considered a Tropical Depression (or better) during the entire crossover, it will retain the same name, if it had one.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Watching SW GOM - NW Caribbean Crossover TD ONE-E [Re: cieldumort]
      #96337 - Mon Jun 06 2016 11:50 PM

Just to clarify, the actual name lists are now maintained by the WMO and they have been for quite a few years - and the crossover rule applies to all tropical cyclone areas of responsibility worldwide. Frequently a tropical storm or hurricane will move from the Eastern Pacific area of responsibility (NHC) into the Central Pacific area of responsibility (CPHC) but it retains the name previously assigned to it by NHC. In 2013, Tropical Storm PEWA formed in the Central Pacific and was named by CPHC. PEWA crossed 180 degrees into the Western Pacific (JTWC) area of responsibility but it retained the previously assigned name. It actually strengthened to Typhoon PEWA in the WESTPAC. In theory a storm could form off the west coast of Africa and finally die in China - and the name assigned while it was in the Atlantic would never be changed.

The EASTPAC system, TD ONE-E, is now expected to weaken and stay south of Mexico until it dissipates, i.e., no EASTPAC name and no crossover likely.
ED


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M.A.
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Reged: Thu
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Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
Re: Watching SW GOM - NW Caribbean Crossover TD ONE-E [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #96347 - Tue Jun 07 2016 09:13 AM

Could this have been the second storm that a few of the models were picking up on a few days ago? I see a couple of models still pick up some energy and steer it into the Tampa area later this week.

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cieldumort
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Re: Watching SW GOM - NW Caribbean Crossover TD ONE-E [Re: M.A.]
      #96356 - Wed Jun 08 2016 12:31 AM

Quote:

Could this have been the second storm that a few of the models were picking up on a few days ago? I see a couple of models still pick up some energy and steer it into the Tampa area later this week.




The short answer is yes and no. Helpful, right?

Most of the models have been going back and forth on giving something a shot later this week for a while now, even including the most reliable ones. However, there is a great deal of nuance among them all, with more recently the Euro and GFS favoring only a very, very weak low up (not even worthy of an upgrade to TD) along the tail end of the troffiness left in the wake of Colin, with or without an infusion of moisture and/or mid-level vorticity from the remnants of ONE-E, or a stand-alone very weak , mostly mid-level feature that drifts back towards Texas.

As of 18Z runs June 7, the two remaining models that do in fact retain or redevelop ONE-E in the Gulf are the sometimes reliable GFDL, and the ever-bullish Canadian, with the others going cool for the past several runs.

However, there seems to be some kind of synergy going on tonight between the tail-end of Colin's trof and the decoupling ONE-E, with convection and vorticity ramping up. Something worth watching, - and interesting, if nothing else.


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