MikeC
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This is the topic for nebulous model watching on systems not yet formed (or even remotely trackable in some cases) North Atlantic Models/Tropical Tidbits
After Cindy, the hints at a wave in the central Atlantic for next week, but nothing solid. The euro shows nothing Para and also show nothing, although the hints at something with the area between 40-45W, but none of the other models do anything with this area.
So in short the next 2 weeks seem quiet so far, if anything new shows up this is the place to post about it.
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MikeC
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There's wave coming off Africa that has a 20% chance for development over the next 5 days that the Hurricane Center is mentioning in hte outlook. Although it could develop, odds are it won't. and if it does, it wouldn't last across the Atlantic. We'll keep an eye on it though.
loses it by Friday (and never really develops it), Euro never really develops it, Para never develops it, does not develop it. The 12Z runs before this showed a bit more development, which is likely what the outlook was based off of.
Long range, next week seems slightly more likely for development of something else in the Eastern or Central Atlantic, but nothing very firm right now.
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MikeC
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The National Hurricane Center has dropped the wave chances off the Outlook, leaving the quiet week. The shows something maybe in the Central Atlantic mid to late next week. but there are no other models supporting that yet.
So likely next week may be quiet as well, but not sure on that yet.
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MikeC
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The (6z) and really only the (and to a dergree the Parallel) are showing a wave/torm crossing the Atlantic near the northern Leewards a week from today, but passes by to the north, Just east of Cape Cod July 15th, then eventually into Newfoundland. as a storm nearly the entire time. Para is simialr although it gets torn apart closer to the Islands, Euro doesn't really show it developing.
At that far ahead in the long range, you can't take anything really from it other than watch to see what happens with the wave next week. Strength/position at that range can be thrown out.
Experimental Tropcial Genesis Map
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MikeC
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is showing a wave currently over africa developing in the Central Atlantic and going over the Leeward islands a hurricane on July 15-16, going west over Puerto Rico through most of the Bahamas then landfalling (as a hurricane) near Juipter, FL on the 20th.
Parallel , and euro does not develop this. So this scenario is VERY unlikely right now.
Very far out, but it means even after TD#4 comes and goes, there will likely be more to watch.
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MikeC
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Model runs tonight (TD#4 dissipates in all of them)
The new wave currently has multiple model support for strong development.
0z Euro starts to develop the wave currently over Africa in the Central Atlantic around July 12th, then it becomes a strong hurricane and goes through the Lesser Antilles July 16th (moving slowly as it crosses!) and ends the run July 17 as a major hurricane just east of the Virgin Islands.
0Z starts to develop it moving west in the Central Atlantic on July 12th, has a major hurricane in the Lesser Antilles on July 15th, (slightly further south than the Euro) Gets disrupted by Hispaniola, and goes between Jamaica and Hispaniola on July 19th, then clips western Cuba and moves into the Gulf (weaker)
Para does not develop it.
develops it but loses it.
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MikeC
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Model runs for east wave:
Para doesn't really develop it and smashes it into South America.
0z Euro isn't developing it either.
has it as a hurricane over the leewards friday night into Saturday, between Jamaica and Haiti on Tuesday July 18th, over Cuba on the 19th, moves through the western Bahamas on the 20th, gains strength and Landfalls near Wilmington NC on July 21st as a major hurricane, cuts inland through north Carolina, over DC on Sat the 22nd, and moves quickly though New England. (the prior 0z run had the system slowly moving up the spine of Florida starting July 20th as a major) -- Reminder that far out, especially with a system that hasn't developed yet, it doesn't mean much other than something may be worth watching that week, more interested in how it trends over time and the upper air steering pattern.
In short is being hyperactive (again), something to watch but nothing guaranteed, similar to what TD#4 was.
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MikeC
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and the 1zz keeps it weaker and moves west all the way through the Caribbean into the Yucatan. (huge difference from North Carolina last run)
The trend is weaker now,and with other models being weak as well, that's the more likely scenario at this point, but still nearly 2 weeks our.
Another tool to look at is the ensembl member surface pressure map http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/...os=0&ypos=0 which shows how large the spread is with the members.
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M.A.
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I normally will not bring up a single model run. The 12Z Navgem is troubling. It is the only model (I see) at this time showing any development within 120hrs. Late last week it did hint at Emily, but then dropped development in the later runs. Were watching [popcorn].
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MikeC
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Today's 12Z Euro is showing a tropical storm developing off Africa Friday, and potentially developing into a hurricane in the central Atlantic on Monday. does not show it currently. Something to watch later in the week into next week.
It's also showing a system near the Yucatan popping up next week. If this persists over the next day or so, things likely will start ramping up toward mid August.
Euro shows a leeward hurricane hit in the morning of Thursday August 10th and a hurricane in the Bay of Campeche approaching the east coast of Mexico.
From the euro, the wave crosses over Puerto Rico as a hurricane on Friday, August 11th, then moves into the Dominican republic the next day (The model run ends there).
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vpbob21
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Models are picking up on the eastern Atlantic wave. 00 has a strong system making landfall around GA/SC late on 8/16. With so much troughing over the eastern US it's hard for me to believe a storm could get that far west, but who knows. has this system as well. is giving this a 50% chance of development within 5 days. We'll see what the Euro comes up with shortly.
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vpbob21
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The 12Z Euro starts to develop a system on 8/17 east of the Lesser Antilles, then strengthens it fairly aggressively going through the Leewards on 8/18, then runs into Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and weakens, but emerges over the southern Bahamas on 8/20. I think this system comes out of the wave currently near 30-35W (or maybe the one behind that, hard to tell). So we may have something to track next week.
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vpbob21
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Strong model support for the wave behind 91L over the African continent. already giving this 5-day chances for development at 20%, pretty impressive for a wave still about 2 days from leaving the coast.
12Z Euro is furthest north, moving it well north of the Leewards and then approaching Bermuda as a hurricane at the end of its run on 8/24.
18Z moves it across the Atlantic into the Lesser Antilles near Guadeloupe on 8/22, strengthening quickly over the NE Carib until it runs into Hispaniola on 8/24, moves pretty much over the length of Cuba but emerges over water late 8/25 then moves north over Florida on 8/26 and 8/27.
With 91L, 92L, future 93L and more waves behind over Africa, we should have a lot to track over the next couple weeks.
Edited by vpbob21 (Tue Aug 15 2017 01:55 PM)
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vpbob21
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I probably wouldn't make a post about it if it were any other model than the European, but that model has a wave exiting the coast of Africa late Saturday and develops into a tropical storm almost immediately after getting over water, and into a hurricane moving through the Cabo Verde islands. It has been showing this for 3 runs in a row now. No other model has this wave so I don't know if the Euro is on to something or just out to lunch, but we'll see.
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vpbob21
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Another strong wave leaving the African coast (I think this is the same one I referred to in my post above) has strong model support to develop from the globals. 12Z and 18Z track it west to west northwest then develop a break in the ridge in about a week near 50W causing the system to move NW and N into that break. 12Z Euro on the other hand builds the ridge west and keeps the system moving west to just north of the Leeward Islands at the end of its run in 10 days. gives this a 40% chance of development in 5 days. Looks like another system that has potential to be a long track Cabo Verde storm but we'll see.
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