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MikeCAdministrator
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Barry Forecast Lounge
      #99914 - Mon Jul 08 2019 09:37 AM

From earlier:

The 0z Euro now forms something in the Gulf late Thursday, and then moves potentially a category 1/2 hurricane into Texas just north of Houston Saturday night.
The GFS moves a much weaker rain system into Corpus Christi Saturday night.
The older legacy GFS model has switched from the east route and also moves the rain into Texas near Corpus.
The Canadian has shifted further west, but brings the storm back onto the Panhandle after forming in the Gulf.
The UKMet and German ICON model move it into the Eastern Louisiana, although the ICON is much stronger (cat 2) than the UK (Tropical Storm)

Title updated to reflect the increasing confidence that 92L, now in the Gulf, will become Barry.
Now updated to Barry 7/11/19 11AM EDT
-Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Thu Jul 11 2019 10:56 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 92 L (Georgia System) Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99915 - Mon Jul 08 2019 01:32 PM

12Z models so far

12Z GFS (New) Weak TS/Rain blob landfall south of Galveston on Saturday morning.
12Z GFS (old) weak system moves onshore near Grand Isle, LA Saturday night.
12Z Icon landfall cat 1/2 hurricane near Cameron, LA saturday morning.
12Z UKMet landfall ~973mb (Cat 2) on Grand Isle, LA.
12Z CMC landfall ~997mb (TS) near Grande Isle, LA late Friday night

12Z Euro shows high Cat 1 or low end 2 at landfall this run ~981mb between Galveston and Port Arthur Saturday night


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Prospero
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Re: Invest 92 L (Georgia System) Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99917 - Mon Jul 08 2019 09:03 PM

Looks like Tampa Bay is out of the picture tonight, but still exciting to look at an oddball system come out of the Tennessee highlands and spin a storm in the Gulf when nobody was looking for that.

Of course, none of us wants to see a Cat anything hurricane or strong tropical storm make landfall anywhere on the Gulf Coast. But to be outside in July and feel a breeze or stiff wind that is coming from one of our planet's natural balancers for the heat of the ocean is a thrill.

I know a real meteorologist cannot publically express such an obsessive desire for a tropical system, but we who are fans of our meteorologists and Mother Earth's ways can still be cheerleaders who cautiously invite a storm yet pray that nobody gets hurt or has any financial loss.

I'm sure Home Depot, Lowes, and Walmart would love to see a rush on water, batteries, and plywood though this time of year.

We've had 4 inches of rain since midnight here in Gulfport, Florida, so we are not thirsty around here. We've had rain for a few days. But there has been very little wind.

A good stiff tropical breeze coming from a freak tropical storm in the middle of the Gulf that fizzles out before any landfall has my vote. Bring it on! But let it die before any harm comes to anybody.

Just sayin'...



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Edited by Prospero (Mon Jul 08 2019 09:06 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Invest 92 L (Georgia System) Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99918 - Tue Jul 09 2019 02:44 AM

Greetings from Texas! I'm back from some much needed vacation. Hope everyone had a wonderful Fourth!

Some initial thoughts of my own for 92L - this one is sure to be a substantial rainmaker, regardless of classification. But exactly what type of rain maker, and how for how long are key questions that the science is unable to get a better lock on at this time, let alone exactly who will see the most of it.

As others have noted (and please see Levi Cowan's latest video for a great summary of this), 92L has not even really "become" enough of a feature to hang ones hat on yet, and this goes for the hurricane-specific models as well (HWRF, HMON, etc.). As of now it is a hot mess of a hybrid feature still over land. So, it goes without saying that any and all model runs at this point should be taken with a few pinches of salt. That said however, there is a high degree of general model consensus that 92L will organize, and probably enough to warrant at least a PTC designation, with corresponding tropical cyclone watches and warnings.

Conditions are likely to be favorable in roughly 80% of the GOM for hurricane development, but only marginally so at best right along the coast.

There are valid reasons to believe that the LLC associated with 92L will develop south of the marginal region (and over substantially warmer waters), but also valid reasons why it could just spin up closer to the coast. This difference may be critical for max intensity and track, with development more offshore favoring a trip further west, and likely as a much more organized TC. Development closer to the coast would tend to favor a multi-day heavy rain and flood event along the central Gulf coast states from the panhandle to Louisiana, with less intense wind overall - and then pushing inland - perhaps with the system never even getting a name.

By Wednesday, or Thursday at the very latest, we should have a much clearer picture of exactly which scenario is likely to play out (or is playing out). For Texas and/or Louisiana, some of the stronger/ more southerly solutions are especially eye-popping. While sparing the Mississippi/Alabama/Florida panhandle some of the worst, early model runs that favor Texas to Louisiana suggest that one or both of these states could endure a multi-day heavy rain/flood and damaging wind event.

By way of odds, I presently give 92L a 50% chance of becoming a high-end TS and 40% of becoming a hurricane, although I am not as certain as NHC of it becoming a bona fide TC to begin with - NHC at 80%, I'm closer to 70%, but this is truly hair splitting and I don't get paid the big bucks ;-) I am bullish on the notion that should 92L become a tropical cyclone, it will have good odds of becoming a strong and possibly memorable one.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Invest 92 L (Georgia System) Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99919 - Tue Jul 09 2019 03:19 AM

0z ECMWF coming in a little more north, east and weaker than yesterday's 12Z for Saturday afternoon.


Image credit: Weather.us


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 92 L (Georgia System) Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99921 - Tue Jul 09 2019 09:41 AM

Models are a bit east overnight into Lousiana. The TCVN Consensus develops ti off shore then weakens it as it approaches coastal Louisiana when it hits some shear right before landfall. The GFS never really develops it.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 92 L (Georgia System) Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99922 - Tue Jul 09 2019 11:35 AM

12Zs are coming out now

12Z GFS, so far more convection than the earlier one, At 30 hours, it's a bit further south and stronger than the 6z run. At 48 hours, it's south of the Mississippi Delta by a good ways and stronger than the 6z run. Suggesting a depression Thursday afternoon. Tropical Storm on Friday, about the same as Euro intensity wise, although the GFS is slightly further north.
Friday night has it moving further west and hitting close to or at hurricane strength. Landfall cat 1/2 near Cameron, LA late Saturday night or Early Sunday morning.

12Z Icon remains mostly the same, but with more convection, showing a CAT 2 landfall in S. Central Louisiana Saturday morning.

12Z UKmet gets the system to a strong cat 3 (945mb) before landfall near Holly Beach, La late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.

12Z Euro has a cat 1/2 (984mb) landfall somewhere in central Louisiana late morning/midday on Saturday


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Genesis
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Re: Invest 92 L (Georgia System) Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99923 - Tue Jul 09 2019 12:13 PM

I'm starting to see a bit of rotation showing up in the long-range radar out of here (EVX) over the last hour or so..... Looks like this thing might spin up after all....

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 92 L (Georgia System) Forecast Lounge [Re: Genesis]
      #99925 - Wed Jul 10 2019 12:18 AM

0z Runs

0z GFS Cat 1/2 Landfall near Central LA Saturday Night
0z ICON Cat 1/2 Landfall near Central LA Midday Saturday
0z UKMET Landfall Galveston, TX Cat 2/3 Saturday Night
0z CMC Cat 1 Landfall near Central LA Saturday Night
0Z Euro Cat 2 landfall near Cameron, LA late Saturday Night


Edited by MikeC (Wed Jul 10 2019 07:12 AM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 92L (Potential Barry) Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99926 - Wed Jul 10 2019 03:36 AM

Tropical cyclogenesis is now underway, with 92L still gliding further offshore, and over progressively warmer waters. It is close to certain that advisories will begin today, Wednesday, or Thursday at the very latest.

The 0z model runs strongly suggest a Houston to New Orleans landfall, but this is still very much uncertain. Recon missions will help, and model runs out Thursday should be more reliable. A Major Hurricane at landfall is not out of the question, as is just a very, very wet high-end Tropical Storm, so we really need this recon data to help tease out subtleties that exist now, but which could have outsized influence down the road.


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IsoFlame
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Re: 92L (Potential Barry) Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99930 - Wed Jul 10 2019 11:06 AM

What impresses me the most with 92L (to date) are the convective bursts dumping copious precip well away from any LLC trying to spin up from the elongated low. 92L has entered a saturated environment with ample moisture to work with over the high-octane (historically warm for early July?) north/east GOMEX.

To compound the problem, the upper and middle Mississippi River basin has been in flood for months, and very high water levels are funneling through the lower Mississippi as 92L approaches.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L (Potential Barry) Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99931 - Wed Jul 10 2019 11:07 AM

I'm mentioning it because of how crazy it is, but 3k nam is showing an 866mb system in the Gulf on Friday night. NAM is NOT good for forecasting tropical storms, but if the trends toward RI are there, the official forecast may be on the weak side. Barry will likely be a small system so it can spin up and down quickly. Even if the storm does not get that strong the rain is already going to be a problem (it was today in NOLA).

Almost all the models show speedy strengthening starting tomorrow.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L (Potential Barry) Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99932 - Wed Jul 10 2019 11:41 AM

From the 11am discussion (explaining why the NAM is going off):

By 48 hours and beyond,
however, the combination of atmospheric and oceanic conditions
become ideal for intensification. The very low shear shear
conditions, an impressive outflow pattern forecast by all of the
global and regional models, and anomalously warm sea-surface
temperatures of 30-31C argue for quick intensification, but given
that the system is still in the formative stages, the official
intensity forecast is a little below IVCN consensus through 48
hours and trends higher toward the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance at
72 hours.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L (Potential Barry) Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99933 - Wed Jul 10 2019 01:10 PM

12z models

12z GFS Cat 1 landfall near Morgan City, LA Saturday morning
12z UKMET Cat 3 landfall near Matagorda, TX early Sunday morning
12z CMC Cat 1 landfall near Port Arthur, TX Saturday evening
12z Icon Cat 1 landfall Central LA, Saturday morning
12z HMON cat 2 landfall near Grand Isle, LA early Saturday morning
12z HWRF cat 3 landfall near Grand Isle, LA Saturday morning

12z Euro, cat 1/2 landfall just west of Morgan City, LA midday Saturday.



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SteveninNOLA
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Re: 92L (Potential Barry) Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99935 - Wed Jul 10 2019 04:27 PM

I'm in New Orleans we received 8 inches of rain in less than 3 hours this morning. The entire city flooded. Still areas with standing water. Pumps are working but now will only be at half capacity for the weekend due to the deluge. On top of this possible event, NHS is predicting the MS river cresting for 6 to 8 hours. Flood stage is 20 feet. We opened the Bonne Carrie spill way twice this year(never been done). Levees are taxed. I don't even want to think what would happen if this ended up being a cat 2 or 3 would do to that crest

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L (Potential Barry) Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99936 - Wed Jul 10 2019 07:55 PM

18z runs:
18z GFS Cat 1 landfall near Morgan City, LA Late Saturday night
18z CMC Cat 1 landfall near Port Arthur, TX Saturday evening
18z Icon Cat 2 landfall Central LA, Saturday morning
18z HMON cat 2 landfall near Grand Isle, LA early Saturday morning goes over W. Lake Pontchartrain
18z HWRF cat 3 landfall near Grand Isle, LA Saturday morning moves directly over New Orleans


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: PTC 2 (Potential Barry) Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99937 - Wed Jul 10 2019 08:48 PM

Tropical cyclogenesis has entered a mature phase, and it is extremely likely that 92L will be classified a bona fide Tropical Cyclone (no longer PTC, or "Potential Tropical Cyclone"), at any time at all tonight. Once conversion into a Tropical Cyclone (from sloppy hybrid) completes, TWO will find itself in an especially conducive environment for intensification, and possibly at one or more times, rapid intensification.

The forecast track ahead for TWO has gotten more precise today, and Louisiana does appear to be the most likely target - with center landfall favored somewhere between the Tx/La border and New Orleans. But it is very important to remember that the bad weather occurs outside of the calm eye, and in the case of TWO, extraordinarily heavy and for some places very persistent rainfall will occur, even long after the storm has past to the west, north or east (owing to ongoing onshore flow). While not making a direct comparison to Tropical Storm Allison, there are reasons to be extra vigilant with this one. The risk for a flood catastrophe is real. It may be wise to heed any and all calls for evacuation, mandatory or not.


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Prospero
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Re: PTC 2 (Potential Barry) Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99938 - Wed Jul 10 2019 09:08 PM

I presume it's an illusion, but to me the center of circulation appears to be moving more south than west.

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: PTC 2 (Potential Barry) Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99939 - Thu Jul 11 2019 01:43 AM

There appears to be some northerly shear tonight which is making it difficult for the convective burst which was so prominent throughout much of the day Wednesday from becoming the focal point for TCG completion, and if anything, over the past couple of hours, PTC2 has looked a little less coherent and a bit de-clothed.

0z model suite has come in largely shifting to the east. I question the reliability of this shift some, given the trend of PTC2 to chase the deepest convection, which has actually been getting shunted further south to southwest. It is possible tho that new convection will begin to fire up within what was the oh-so-almost-there TC location of a few hours ago, and genesis completes sooner, and closer to the coast - which would also mean the incipient cyclone could respond more to the pull of the front/trof passing to its north, and begin recurving sooner rather than later, into Louisiana, as the bulk of the 0z models advertise.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: PTC 2 (Potential Barry) Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99940 - Thu Jul 11 2019 07:57 AM

Morning model runs 6/0z depending on type: (East shift)
6Z GFS East shift strong TS/Cat 1 near Mouth of MS
0Z Euro Cat 1 near Morgan City, LA Saturday Midday
0Z CMC Strong TS/Cat 1 near Morgan City, LA Saturday Morning
6Z HWRF. Skirts mouth of Mississippii and landfall near Waveland, MS Cat 2 Saturday morning
6Z HMON Cat 2 near Gulfpoirt, MS midday Saturday


UKMet remains near Sabine pass in Texas


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: PTC 2 (Potential Barry) Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99941 - Thu Jul 11 2019 10:06 AM

While still likely to become a full-fledged tropical cyclone, all of these fits and starts in coming together are why I was originally at about a 70% chance of TC - and which bent my max intensity estimations down, despite what would otherwise be good to excellent environmental conditions for possibly even rapid intensification.

Now, with the aid of first light, I would back down from the 'near certainty' of development, to closer to 90%. The reason for this has to do with the fact that 92L in some respects has devolved more into a hybrid with multiple centers, with a pronounced spin, its northernmost, already about to push inland over Louisiana. Meanwhile, what was perhaps an attempt overnight to jump a new center into the deepest convection to the southwest, looks to have given way to splitting the difference between that region (26N, 89.5W) and the northern lobe just southeast of Louisiana (29N, 88.5W), with pressures falling steadily somewhere in the middle.

The strongest winds associated with TWO appear to be located well away from its mean (and tracked) center, and an eyeball of scat and recon passes has a sub-tropical cyclone look about them.

Net-net, until (or even unless) TWO fully establishes a more stable and tighter LLC, it will continue this rather sloppy, uneven march to becoming a TC, and the longer it takes, probably, the lower its ultimate maximum intensity will be, given there is only so much time it has before meeting land.

Regardless of development, the system will produce tremendous rainfall over much of the south-central US, and in areas least able to handle it. Whether or not it becomes a TD, storm or hurricane is almost academic to this point.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: PTC 2 (Potential Barry) Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99944 - Thu Jul 11 2019 10:35 AM

Looks like we will see 92L declared a TC shortly. It's not unreasonable to call it now, given the ongoing pressure drops in the mean center of the multi-swirled incipient TC, and the tropical storm force winds located in SE quad.

ATCF AL, 02, 2019071112, BEST, 277N, 885W, 30, 1005, TD, 34


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Re: PTC 2 (Potential Barry) Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99945 - Thu Jul 11 2019 11:06 AM

Benefits of recon - based on visible satellite and the scattering of surface obs one could argue that there wasn't enough there there - but the current mission has found a more coherent center with pressures continuing to drop. Now that we have a young but legit storm, model runs coming in later today should be more precise and reliable.

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