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Recon finding #Sam a vigorous Cat 4 and may be knocking on Cat 5 w/ a tight inner core. Hopefully staying away from land.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 12 (Nicholas) , Major: 28 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1082 (Michael) Major: 1082 (Michael)
13.9N 50.2W
Wind: 145MPH
Pres: 943mb
Moving:
Wnw at 8 mph
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General Discussion >> 2021 Forecast Lounge

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1005
Loc: parrish,fl
2021 forecast
      #101511 - Thu Apr 08 2021 06:13 PM

First early forecast from Col. State: 17-9-4
another busy year...

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doug


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: 2021 forecast [Re: doug]
      #113763 - Mon May 03 2021 09:29 PM

16-7-2

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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 325
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
Re: 2021 forecast [Re: MikeC]
      #113764 - Tue May 11 2021 11:56 AM

19-8-4

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Kraig
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 54
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
Re: 2021 forecast [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #113767 - Sun May 16 2021 07:51 PM

18-10-5

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2021 forecast 18-10-5; 18-7-4 as of 9/26

South FL Native: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17), Dorian ('19) and Isaias (20)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: 2021 forecast [Re: MikeC]
      #113768 - Thu May 20 2021 03:27 PM

15 - 8 - 3 (same as last year )

Edited by MichaelA (Thu May 20 2021 03:31 PM)


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 157
Loc: Central Florida
Re: 2021 forecast [Re: MikeC]
      #113769 - Thu May 20 2021 08:28 PM

18-12-6

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EMS
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 52
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
Re: 2021 forecast [Re: JoshuaK]
      #113770 - Fri May 21 2021 12:29 AM

20-11-6

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vpbob21
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 114
Loc: Ohio
Re: 2021 forecast [Re: doug]
      #113771 - Fri May 21 2021 03:18 PM

23-11-5

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jtrnr1951
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 7
Loc: Ocala National Forest
Re: 2021 forecast [Re: vpbob21]
      #113772 - Sat May 22 2021 09:13 AM

20-10-5

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gsand
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 31
Loc: Palm Bay, FL 28.00N 80.38W
Re: 2021 forecast [Re: MikeC]
      #113773 - Sat May 22 2021 04:14 PM

15-6-3

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------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hazel 1954 Camille 1969 Agnes 1972 Bob 1991 Erin 1995 Charley 2004 Frances 2004 Jeanne 2004 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017
2021 Forecast- 15/6/3


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2106
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 2021 forecast [Re: doug]
      #113775 - Mon May 31 2021 11:02 PM

Still using my old formula with some tweaks and allowances for other considerations.

Names: 15 (Likely range 13-17)
Hurricanes: 8 (Likely range 7-9)
Majors: 4 (Likely range 3-5)


Forecast bias/risk: Forecast Risk is to the upside (More names may easily occur than my system is calling for, but not necessarily more hurricanes).
Above average potential for a late-ending season.

Landfall considerations:
*Trend of slower and/or wetter systems more likely to be seen this year than not.
*Above average risk of US landfalls with potential for much above average US landfalls


Final season forecast for 2021 Flhurricane Contest:
Names: 15, Hurricanes: 8, Majors: 4

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Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)


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Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 258
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: 2021 forecast [Re: cieldumort]
      #113782 - Tue Jun 15 2021 04:13 PM

I know I am late and posted this on another forum a while back. I'm already thinking I was underestimating the early part of the season for named storms, but I'll stick with it just for fun. Not like I'll lose any money on a bet. LOL

Quote:

14/11/7

Probably way low on named storms, but seven majors. Teresa might be one to be historic...




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Gulfport, Florida USA - Personal Weather Station:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLGULFP5
My Live Beach Cam on Clearwater Beach:
https://beachresortcondos.com/clearwater-beach-live-webcam.html


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 189
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: 2021 forecast [Re: Prospero]
      #113794 - Mon Jun 28 2021 08:57 AM

Late to the party... 17-8-2

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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