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Tropical Storm Odette forms off NC coast likely to remain offshore and head out to sea becoming post-tropical over the weekend.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Nicholas) , Major: 19 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1073 (Michael) Major: 1073 (Michael)
36.4N 71.2W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1010mb
Moving:
Ne at 10 mph
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General Discussion >> 2021 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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East of Carib Wave Lounge
      #113787 - Mon Jun 21 2021 03:12 PM

This wave east of the Caribbean, currently at a 30% chance to develop, has mixed model support.

The GFS takes it into the Gulf, and as of 12Z landflalls near Gulf Shores, AL a week from Friday as a hurricane, whereas the 12Z Euro and Canadian takes it north of the islands and never develops it.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: East of Carib Wave Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #113788 - Tue Jun 22 2021 04:59 AM

The GFS continues to be the only model showing anything forming later in the West Caribbean, which is still a possibility sometime next week, but the others seem to think the energy winds up in the East Pacific, a few more days to tell which is right, but I'm not really sold on what the GFS says at the moment.

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Re: East of Carib Wave Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #113789 - Tue Jun 22 2021 08:25 AM

The GFS dropped the west caribbean idea this morning, although there is another area to watch in the East atlantic on the Ensembles.

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