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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 83 (Nicholas) , Major: 99 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1153 (Michael) Major: 1153 (Michael)
 


General Discussion >> 2021 Forecast Lounge

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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: mid level circulation [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #113845 - Tue Jul 06 2021 10:41 AM

Its a compact little storm, but the track has it hugging the coast the whole way N which means the entire W coast of FL is going get off and on TS conditions during the day.

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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: mid level circulation [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #113846 - Tue Jul 06 2021 11:52 AM

Quote:

She seems to have held together pretty well overall in the overnight hours. AND the cone seems to have shifted back to the east a bit...towards me....should be an interesting afternoon and overnight.




Agree. Nothing overly catastrophic, but plenty of nastier storms than normal for most of Florida the next 24 to 36 hours.

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Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 195
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: mid level circulation [Re: StormHound]
      #113847 - Tue Jul 06 2021 12:15 PM

30 NM to the west of Elsa's position:

buoy # 42026

Noon weather report from Key West: Wind SE39G60mph, pressure 29.95F

Given the reports from other stations to east of Elsa, its obvious that the TS is very lopsided, and 0 to 75 miles east of the track is going to be most impacted. If a convective band taps into Atlantic moisture tonight or Wednesday north of Cape Canaveral when Elsa passes slowly along the Florida Gulf coast, the east coast north of the Cape may get some bad weather too, and my parched location in central coastal Volusia may actually get some beneficial rain.

Edited by IsoFlame (Tue Jul 06 2021 12:29 PM)


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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: mid level circulation [Re: IsoFlame]
      #113848 - Tue Jul 06 2021 02:04 PM

Second hand information as I haven't looked myself, but reports are that recon is showing near hurricane strength winds and recon has not yet measured the NE quadrant. Presumably we could see Elsa reclassified when recon is finished and confirmed.

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Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: mid level circulation [Re: StormHound]
      #113851 - Tue Jul 06 2021 03:42 PM

Finally got another feeder band here on the SE coast but the storms compact size means we are not seeing much. Its just grey and overcast with occasional light rain here in NW Broward.

And yes recon is showing 64-83 kt winds in the NE quad. Seems to isolated to two small bands: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF302-1305A-ELSA.png

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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 195
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: mid level circulation [Re: JMII]
      #113853 - Tue Jul 06 2021 04:32 PM

Those bands are roughly 25 to 50 mile NE/E of the center. If the track holds due north next 12 hours as the forecast calls for, allowing the center to stay offshore a dozen or so miles from St. Pete Beach, these strong bands in the NE quadrant would put Tampa Bay in the crosshairs for Elsa's highest winds and greatest surge. My son lives in St. Pete (on high ground) but works in Tampa- asked him not to plan on going to work tomorrow as the Gandy and Howard Franklin bridges may close for Elsa.

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: mid level circulation [Re: IsoFlame]
      #113854 - Tue Jul 06 2021 04:44 PM

Here is the status of the Sunshine Skyway Bridge: https://www.skywaybridgestatus.com/ taken from https://fl511.com/List/Alerts

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: mid level circulation [Re: IsoFlame]
      #113855 - Tue Jul 06 2021 05:06 PM

Elsa certainly is defying its surroundings. Looking at the radar and satellite floater loops, it appears that the central convection is trying to wrap around the LLC. That said, the heaviest weather is still in the NE and E quadrants removed from the center. If the forecast track confirms, Elsa will give the Tampa Bay region much the same weather as Eta did last November. A slight wobble to the east would dramatically change that though. If the position forecast verifies, the worst will occur between Midnight and 4 AM here in Pinellas County.

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Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2112
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Elsa Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #113860 - Tue Jul 06 2021 09:12 PM

Likely responding to shear, for much of the day the LLC has been realigning itself with the MLC, and tracking just a wee bit extra to the right seemingly with every hour or few. This may bring meaningfully deteriorating conditions ashore sooner rather than later, with locations including but not limited to from about Tampa to roughly Cedar Key seeing some of the very worst of it starting possibly well before dawn and then continuing into the morning tomorrow, easing from west to east, but with onshore flow continuing, potentially exacerbating storm surge, inland flooding and wind damage that would have already occurred.

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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Elsa Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #113861 - Tue Jul 06 2021 10:28 PM

Based on radar the eye that was trying to form has completely collapsed. However Sarasota, Venice and North Port appear to be getting hammered by a line of strong storms.

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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2112
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Elsa Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #113862 - Tue Jul 06 2021 11:33 PM

Dry air is definitely being injected into the system from the southwest tonight. With cloud tops now having been warming since shortly after Elsa was upgraded at 8PM, it seems all but certain that the long championed 'supernatural' way Tampa Bay has avoided a direct hurricane hit for a century holds yet once more, and that possibly even Elsa's rain will taper off rather abruptly after passage.

That said, fair to say that the one thing we have noted with Elsa is not to count her out, and she could easily pick up a difluence assist ahead.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1005
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Elsa Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #113863 - Wed Jul 07 2021 06:48 AM

2.65 inches of rain here in Parrish on my station. Highest wind gusts at 23…very fortunate… we seem to be in the gap between bands

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doug


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1005
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Elsa Lounge [Re: doug]
      #113866 - Wed Jul 07 2021 11:56 AM

If nothing else, Elsa may be one of the most resilient storms ever. In effect it has survived although, structurally, only half a storm for over a week..

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doug


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