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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 83 (Nicholas) , Major: 99 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1153 (Michael) Major: 1153 (Michael)
 


General Discussion >> 2021 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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SE Coast Low Invest 90L
      #113868 - Fri Jul 23 2021 08:15 AM



An area of more concentrated low pressure along a trof that has moved just offshore overnight and is now located generally east of the Georgia and South Carolina border as of this entry is showing some signs of development this morning, a little ahead of schedule, and so we are starting a lounge on this disturbance.

Invest 90L is expected to drift around off the southeast coast for the next several days over warm waters near and over the Gulf Stream, which is expected to afford it potentially several days with which to further organize.

NHC has been highlighting a chance of development here over the past several days, has now upped its odds to 30% within about 48/72 hours, and this could be conservative.

More details to come. This disturbance has been tagged Invest 90L and the title has been updated accordingly.

Edited by cieldumort (Fri Jul 23 2021 08:27 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: SE Coast Low Invest 90L [Re: cieldumort]
      #113871 - Fri Jul 23 2021 03:29 PM

Models are mixed right now on this one, but generally keep it weak. GFS doesn't do much, HWRF initial having a hard time hanging on, the 12Euro moves it across central Florida back into the Gulf and eventually into Louisiana. Something to watch over the next couple of days, but unlikely (but not impossible) for something to happen.

The Canadian model (CMC) has it developing and landfalling near GA/FL Border Monday afternoon.


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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 354
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: SE Coast Low Invest 90L [Re: MikeC]
      #113872 - Sat Jul 24 2021 11:36 AM

I wonder how the persistent tropical wave making its way under the upper level low north of Hispaniola will will play into this. May all end up in the gulf and get going, the wave may actually find it self in a good spot in a few days near the northern bahamas.

Edited by Robert (Sat Jul 24 2021 11:37 AM)


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MichaelA
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Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: SE Coast Low Invest 90L [Re: Robert]
      #113873 - Sat Jul 24 2021 02:58 PM

Looking at the latest models on the FSU site, there seems to be a weak consensus on a system moving out to the NE and a much weaker system moving into FL/GA and possibly a very weak low in the NE Gulf. Wait and see time.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 258
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: SE Coast Low Invest 90L [Re: MichaelA]
      #113874 - Sat Jul 24 2021 08:08 PM

I'm watching and ready for something. We need rain in Gulfport even though our neighbors seem to get a bit. So tired of passing thunderstorms "parting" over us. I think it is being on Boca Ciega Bay and the influence of Tampa Bay temperatures doing their impact on what is big for everyone else. Every season, most storms. UGH

This sad looking little low has me excited. Won't be a Laura, but could become an Elsa...

Bring it on! LOL

--------------------
Gulfport, Florida USA - Personal Weather Station:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLGULFP5
My Live Beach Cam on Clearwater Beach:
https://beachresortcondos.com/clearwater-beach-live-webcam.html


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