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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 83 (Nicholas) , Major: 99 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1153 (Michael) Major: 1153 (Michael)
 


General Discussion >> 2021 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Henri Lounge
      #113924 - Sat Aug 14 2021 10:18 PM



An area of low pressure that developed from a frontal zone and associated mesoscale convective system that pushed off the east coast earlier in the past week has been slowly acquiring tropical characteristics and gradually becoming better defined as it travels over the warm waters of the western Atlantic now not far from Bermuda, and so we are starting a Lounge on this disturbance, recently Invest tagged 96L.


As of 8 PM AST Saturday Aug 14, Invest 96L was located near 36N 63.5W, or a bit more than more than 200 miles north-northeast of Bermuda, with spotty deep convection mostly displaced to the south and southwest of the center. Movement is presently to the south-southeast and may eventually track towards or over Bermuda, with potential for Watches and Warnings being issued there as soon as later this weekend or early next week, should trends continue.

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(Moderna x2)

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Aug 16 2021 05:29 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: TD 8 Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #113938 - Mon Aug 16 2021 05:28 PM

TD 8 has become another tropical storm, Henri.

Tropical Storm Henri is the third earliest eighth named Atlantic basin TC on record in the satellite era. The only two others years with an earlier eighth name were 2020 (7/24) and 2005 (8/3) h/t Philip Klotzbach.

Intensity guidance favors strengthening for the next day or two, before shear increases. Track-wise, Henri is expected to make a clockwise loop around Bermuda, without ever passing directly over the island itself. Nonetheless, the Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: TD 8 Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #113939 - Tue Aug 17 2021 07:05 PM

Some of the 18Z models suggest a close call or impact to New England/Cape Cod. Icon turns it back west, and GFS gets very close. 12Z hmon has approach to long island.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: TD 8 Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #113940 - Wed Aug 18 2021 08:15 AM

06z GFS has a Category 2 landfall in Rhode Island on Monday from Henri, which is a pretty big shift.
0z Euro keeps it offshore
06z HWRF has shifted closer to New England this morning
06 HWRF has a cat 1 landfall near New York City, Monday morning, or just east in Long Island.
0Z CMC keeps it close, but offshore.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: TD 8 Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #113946 - Thu Aug 19 2021 08:51 PM

18Z models are all going for landfall, and this run had recon data to go with it.

18Z GFS Landfall Martha's VIneyard/Chappaquiddick cat 1/2 around midday Sunday
18Z Icon Rhode Island Landfall cat 1/2 midday Sunday
18Z HMON Montauk Long Island/NY cat 2 midday Sunday
18Z HWRF Marthas Vineyard landfall.Cat 1/2 Sunday Afternoon, then stalls west of Boston
18Z EURO Marthas Vineyard landfall.Cat 1/2 Sunday Afternoon

0z Early runs, including the TVCN which the hurricane center likes to use, shifted to the west landfalling Rhode Island.

All stall or loop after landfall

11PM track will probably Shift west closer to Rhode Island


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Henri Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #113951 - Fri Aug 20 2021 06:27 PM



Base image credit: CIMSS

Should Henri follow the center of the cone on the current official NHC forecast track, the cyclone would be traveling across an anomalously warm pool at the northern reaches of the Gulf Stream just prior to hitting cool water, and potentially delay the onset of weakening prior to landfall, or even give Henri a bump up before likely weakening over cooler waters begins.

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Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Henri Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #113952 - Fri Aug 20 2021 09:07 PM

Tomer Burg @burgwx has put together a great graphic depicting the dramatic westward shifts of all the GFS and ECMWF deterministic and ensemble members of the past few runs

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MichaelA
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Re: Henri Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #113955 - Sat Aug 21 2021 05:34 AM

My wife and I are heading out to drive to Waltham, MA in about an hour. Looks like we’ll be staying an extra night near Scranton, PA to wait for Henri to pass by. Instead of arriving at our destination on Monday, we’ll get there on Tuesday, weather permitting.

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Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Henri Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #113956 - Sat Aug 21 2021 05:00 PM

EC and GFS doing a touch of windshield wipering now with a slight bias back to the right, but for the most part landing in the same general area = confidence on NHC landfall forecast going up.

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