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Archives 2020s >> 2021 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Mindy Lounge
      #114007 - Tue Aug 31 2021 11:25 PM



A broad area of low pressure is gradually taking hold in the southwestern Caribbean, and the 'center' has been Invest tagged, 91L.

For much of the day today and last night a weak but slightly organized surface low pressure has been noted in conventional and microwave satellite. This is the feature being tracked as 91L.

While not immediately likely to develop given modest shear in the region, there is a slight chance (NHC 20%) of doing so prior to reaching Central America and/or the Yucatan Peninsula, both of which are likely to see heavy rains from it, regardless. After the expected crossing of this region, the chance of development/redevelopment/strengthening is once again expected to increase, possibly being at its highest point if while in the western Gulf of Mexico.

Interests from central America and the Yucatan Peninsula to perhaps later in the period eastern Mexico to Texas/Louisiana may want to watch.

91L has become Tropical Storm Mindy as of the 4PM CDT Sep 8 NHC advisory time and the tile has been updated.

Edited by cieldumort (Wed Sep 08 2021 05:43 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 91L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #114009 - Wed Sep 01 2021 06:27 PM


Image credit: Weathernerds.org

This evening, small Invest 91L is on the cusp of, if not already qualifying as, being a Tropical Depression.

This small area of well-defined circulation has rapidly acquired a compact region of increasingly organized deep convection about its center on approach to making almost certain landfall on Nicaragua later tonight or very early tomorrow.

It remains to be seen if it doesn't wash out over Central America, but models generally do favor it lingering around and either surviving or reforming closer to mainland Mexico in either the Eastern Pacific and/or the Bay of Campeche later this week and/or early next.

Depending on these near term trends, NHC may see the need to number or name 91L sooner rather than later tonight.

--------------------
Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 91L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #114010 - Wed Sep 01 2021 07:23 PM

Another look at 91L closer to the 7PM CDT hour.

Image credit: Weathernerds.org

At 7PM CDT, NHC lowered their assessment of an upgrade to TD down to 10% within 48 hours.

Northeast Nicaragua may want to prepare for heavy, locally torrential and blustery rains, with attendant risk for some flooding and mudslides.

--------------------
Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 91L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #114015 - Tue Sep 07 2021 03:24 PM

91L pulled northwest off the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula over the holiday and is now in the western Gulf of Mexico with convection extending well into the central GOM, with conditions for development slowly improving. In fact, there may be a window opening up for more development than largely expected by most models, and it is possible 91L becomes a stronger subtropical or tropical cyclone than even those that develop it suggest.

As of the 2PM Sep 7 TWO NHC's development odds on this disturbance have gone up to 30%/40% within 2D/5D respectively, and this could be conservative, as noted above.

The debilitating ULL that has been hammering what was once arguably a brief TD prior to landfall on northeastern Nicaragua is now sliding to its southeast, not only diminishing shear, but also helping create an outflow sink on 91L's eastern/southeastern side. As the system trends N-NE as forecast, it could find even itself in a setup favorable for anticyclonic flow aloft at some point, and given the very warm Gulf and juicy atmosphere, there may be enough time for this to become a named storm, and possibly a very wet one that packs a punch.

Here are some recent model spreads out today:

12Z GFS: Apparent TC genesis while SE of Louisiana Wednesday morning 30 KT TD. Landfall late Wednesday night in vicinity of St. Andrews State Park, FL as a 35+ KT Storm. Tracks E-NE over northern Florida/SE Georgia through Thursday and possibly redevelops once back in the western Atlantic and over the Gulf Stream Friday, heading NE.


12Z CMC: Slides it across NE FL Thur/Fri as a stretched out trof/little or no TC development
12Z ICON: Slides it across NE FL late this week into the weekend as a stretched out trof/no TC development.

NAM3K*** Develops a sloppy Depression or weak Storm while SE of Louisiana Wednesday afternoon. Landfalling late Wednesday night/overnight as a Storm roughly in same region as GFS above, tracks ENE across northern Florida and SE GA and then restrengthens over Gulf Stream while just offshore of GA/SC midday Thursday.
***NOT an ideal model for the tropics, but including it because of the potential sub-tropical nature of 91L

--------------------
Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 91L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #114017 - Wed Sep 08 2021 01:31 AM

09/07/12z ECMWF EPS Implied TC Probability with 91L valid Fri Sep 10 12Z

Credit: Weathermodels.com


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 91L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #114018 - Wed Sep 08 2021 02:08 AM

There may be some difficulty among some models resolving a good 91L location to hang their hats on, but in general, most models that are latching on to something and indeed NHC itself are tracking the weak surface trof/mid-level elongated low that is presently 'centered' near 26N 89W.

A more robust LLC exists to the southwest of what is being tracked, which appears to be a merger of some of old pre-GOM 91L and a reflection of the ULL over the region. However, this well-defined LLC is also under moderate to high shear and will likely continue to struggle at least in the near term, leaving the present Invest location of 26N 89W the more credible candidate for development. As this focal point for genesis is considerably closer to land, it is possible NHC will feel the need to begin advisories on a "Potential Tropical Cyclone" at some point Wednesday, even if it continues to look like a hot mess for a while longer. (Image below)



Base map/sat image credit: CIMSS

Edited by cieldumort (Wed Sep 08 2021 02:48 AM)


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Keith B
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Re: 91L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #114019 - Wed Sep 08 2021 05:24 AM

Is it possible to have a zoomed pic?

Thanks,

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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StormHound
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Re: 91L Lounge [Re: Keith B]
      #114020 - Wed Sep 08 2021 11:02 AM

Depending on your browser you can CTRL-+ to Zoom in and CTRL-0 to reset the zoom after you are done looking. That is what I did.

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Storm Hound
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Keith B
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Re: 91L Lounge [Re: StormHound]
      #114021 - Wed Sep 08 2021 06:44 PM

Quote:

Depending on your browser you can CTRL-+ to Zoom in and CTRL-0 to reset the zoom after you are done looking. That is what I did.




Thanks.

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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