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The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts June 1st, 2023.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 21 (Nicole) , Major: 64 (Ian) Florida - Any: 21 (Nicole) Major: 64 (Ian)
 


General Discussion >> 2022 Forecast Lounge

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kapSt.Cloud
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 50
Loc: Long Beach, MS
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #114389 - Thu Sep 29 2022 11:38 AM

I wasn’t being rude. I was holding your feet to the fire with facts. You’re not as knowledgeable as you think you are. Yes, this site is for discussing and acquiring information about current storms. You went beyond that when you wrote what scoundrels we are in the U.S. for not caring about 3rd world countries. BTW, Puerto Rico is NOT a 3rd world country.

Finally, this site is the first place I come to when a possible hurricane is brewing. We don’t need to read your hyperbole with your know-it-all attitude. Truth be told you’re wrong 80% of the time.


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TanukiMario
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: kapSt.Cloud]
      #114391 - Thu Sep 29 2022 01:12 PM

I've been lurking on this forum for years and I find it somewhat weird that this thread is the one to make me sign up.

First a little about me. I'm from Puerto Rico and divide my time between there and Miami. Have properties in both places, hence my interest in following these storms closely.

I was on the ground during Maria and had my street flooded with over two feet of water. Luckily I was aware of the possibility of flooding and built my house 24" above street level, so got away with just a few inches of water inside.

In PR have also been through Hugo, Georges, Hortense and in Miami I was here for Irma, but I missed Andrew.

The focus at this point should be on helping those folks in Ft. Myers and the surrounding area. From experience, the devastation of a direct hit is overwhelming and it is difficult to get in the clean up and rebuilding stage when the job seems so big.

Which leads me to the main reason I decided to post:

Y'all are wrong about PR. Sure there is mismanagement and some governmental fraud, but in the case of Maria I doubt it was (at least initially) intentional. When government bureaucrats are tasked with a difficult task that they are not really equipped to handle they tend to make all sorts of rookie mistakes - like hiring companies that make big promises but aren't up to the job.

The destruction of the power grid after Maria was such that the correct fix would have been to raze and rebuild as opposed to just fix. Since that would have kept the populace without power even longer - I think they just chose to put band-aids on an aging, beat-up infrastructure. I now have two power poles in front of my house, an old broken pre-Maria one and a new replacement. Ideally the old beat up one would have been removed, but the phone and internet lines are still attached to that one. Its just bad management or incompetence, not necessarily corruption.

Not doing things right the first tie means that now you have nice, shiny new power poles interspersed with old rotting wood ones and when Fiona showed up, whatever survived Maria got beat up.

I imagine in Fort Myers they will replace *entire* electrical grids, not just bits and pieces. Why? Because there is more access to parts, more access to crews and more money. If they do a piece-meal repair, then the next storm will just take down whatever was damaged by Ian but still workable...

PR is not a third world country but it is trying hard to become a second world one (I say that only partly in jest). There is corruption, but I attribute only 10% of the post Maria mismanagement to that particular problem; there were many others: Initially a very slow response from the Federal Government, the difficulty of bringing parts and labor in due to airports and ship terminals being down and of course, being an island in the middle of the ocean. Add to those difficulties a lot of posturing from politicians using the disaster to gain political capital (R vs D as well as PNP vs PPD and every permutation of those four parties working against each other) and it was just a total cluster*.

Prepare for the political crap-fest of the two parties blaming each other if/when problems start to arise in the Ft Myers recovery.

As for PR not choosing to become a state, I could write a whole book about that one that would include the story about how the PR PPD party did everything it could while it held power in the beginning of the modern PR constitution era to disincentivize Puertorricans from wanting statehood to how the Republican Party is currently doing whatever it can to avoid a majority Democratic state from joining the union. Let's just say propaganda works.

So - yeah, I find the whole "PR is a third world, corrupt country that doesn't have the common sense to become a state and we (Americans) just send them money out of the goodness of our hearts" thing a little insulting, but I'll chalk it up to lack of information and propaganda.

Anyway - hope this is my first and last post, because as much as I thought Ian was headed to Ft Myers since Monday, I'm not a meteorologist and have absolutely no valid reason to have thought that other that the visual of that long NE to SW trail of clouds across the FL peninsula with super clear air over Tampa through the weekend. That line of clouds pretty much pointed like an arrow in the direction Ian headed - but I don't know the technical reason why, so can't really contribute in any meaningful way.


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2184
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #114392 - Thu Sep 29 2022 01:31 PM

Please keep discussions strictly on Ian and modeling about Ian. Thoughts about climate change or politics belong in a different forum Perhaps even a different website? If mods have to babysit posters we will ban. Use the ignore features available and don't feed trolls. Do not reply to this warning. Just comply. Thanks.

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Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 230
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: GeorgeN]
      #114394 - Thu Sep 29 2022 04:12 PM

Quote:

As the Euro and GFS track South, I'm still trying to figure out how the UKMET calculated this track all the way back to Sunday. While the other plots were skipping around, UKMET was glued to this area. I know the GFS is better for open ocean runs as it doesn't account for land interaction as well. The Euro did forecast the same landfall as UKMET on Sunday, then it started to track North until it snapped back. I need to do some more research on the UKMET model.

Tampa and the West coast still need to prepare. Irma ran up the state then jogged back towards Tampa in 2017. The eye was 10 miles from my house and it shredded a lot of trees.




I didn't understand the usually pretty dang good UKMET this entire storm. You are exactly right, and really what I was trying to make the point that I've been trying to make about some models. UKMET had the storm going up to 992mb and north of Tampa for a period of time that was quite honestly a bit dangerous. I'm not a meteorologist however it looks to me like it relied on the jet stream making it sound quicker than it did. From there, Ian did basically the same thing which was meander in the same spot for a very long time. The UKMET had it out to sea though, not half on, half off. CHC had a couple of pretty significant East/West bobs too.

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.

Edited by Psyber (Thu Sep 29 2022 06:10 PM)


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Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 230
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: TanukiMario]
      #114395 - Thu Sep 29 2022 04:15 PM

Quote:

I've been lurking on this forum for years and I find it somewhat weird that this thread is the one to make me sign up.

First a little about me. I'm from Puerto Rico and divide my time between there and Miami. Have properties in both places, hence my interest in following these storms closely.

I was on the ground during Maria and had my street flooded with over two feet of water. Luckily I was aware of the possibility of flooding and built my house 24" above street level, so got away with just a few inches of water inside.

.




Welcome! I'd love to discuss some things in your private messages if that is okay?

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.


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GeorgeN
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 33
Loc: Wesley Chapel FL
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: TanukiMario]
      #114396 - Thu Sep 29 2022 07:42 PM

Please keep posting. I’m curious about your cloud trail idea and how it could explain the accuracy of the UKMET with this storm. A good plot not only gives people more time to prepare but saves a lot of anxiety for people not in the actual landfall location. In this case, a lot of people in Tampa panicked for no reason.
In my case it was good to prepare as my window panels took a beating and power is still out. Even though I’m north of Tampa, I still recorded 60 mph gusts.

--------------------
Wesley Chapel FL - since 1990
Previous resident of North Miami and Merritt Island


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 477
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: GeorgeN]
      #114399 - Fri Sep 30 2022 12:14 PM

Quote:

In this case, a lot of people in Tampa panicked for no reason.




Well if the Tampa track would have verified then that panic was warranted. However as soon as Ian came off the coast of Cuban it rode the E side of the cone. A each hour went by the direct threat to Tampa kept dropping while places further south became more under the gun. As with Charley the shape of the west coast and angle of approach meant a wide area of landfall was possible, yet the worst wind effects would be concentrated in only a small area so pin pointing landfall became critical. The surge however was massive, as far SE as Flamingo & Everglades City got swamped too. Almost nobody lives down there so you will not see news reports about it. However I fish these area and have seen pictures from local guides showing water filled streets with around 2-3 feet of surge but clearly not the 5-7 Ft Myers saw.

The problem was the NHC wasn't shifting the cone S despite the storms track on radar. The models apparently misjudged / didn't see how strong the western jet was. Remember at one point Ian was forecast into the Big Bend area and slowing down in GA which in hindsight seems almost impossible given its final track across FL and back into ocean.

Running thru the models here: https://flhurricane.com/clarkmodelanimator.php?year=2022&storm=9 Loop #24 shows the UK model with the right path but the spread was large and the NHC went with the average which put Tampa in the middle. GeorgeN noted this solution in his post #114262 - Mon Sep 26 2022 09:54 AM Loop #25 seems to confirm this was the right call, it took until Loop #27 for all the other models to get onboard but even those tracks were ultimately a bit too far north after landfall.

Watching this frame-by-frame https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN_graphics.php you can see several plots of NE movement off Cuba, followed by a N wobble, then a clear NE path across the state. If the N wobble had been maintained landfalll might have been more like Sarasota. You get even more details with this graphic: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152538.shtml?gm_track#contents Advisory #25 was almost spot on for landfall but the angle was wrong and this was never correct as the NHC continued with this N motion when it was actually more NNE and finally NE.

Given the devastation of Ian this whole scenario will be studied in even more detail for years. The NHC publishes a report in the off season with preliminary findings too. The final report for Wilma is 27 pages including wind and plot accuracy tables, plus a radar image showing NW Broward where I live in the eyewall.


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TanukiMario
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #114400 - Fri Sep 30 2022 02:46 PM Attachment (87 downloads)

Here, check this out - what I was referring to indicated with the black arrow.

https://flhurricane.com/cyclone/download.php?Number=114400

Even more impressive is the satellite imagery (which I couldn't find) because that cloud formation kept up in the same direction all the way across FL and out to the Atlantic. My thinking was that whatever that "front" (quotes because I don't know what that is or is called, but it looks like a winter cold front to me) was, Ian was going to skirt along its edge. What I dodn't get is why the models at that time still had the storm moving across Tampa and up the north. <shrug>

Again - I don't know anything about this stuff - just an observation.


PS - image is from a radar loop by Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School at https://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/radar/

Edited by TanukiMario (Fri Sep 30 2022 03:18 PM)


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 477
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: TanukiMario]
      #114401 - Fri Sep 30 2022 04:18 PM

Quote:

My thinking was that whatever that "front" (quotes because I don't know what that is or is called, but it looks like a winter cold front to me) was, Ian was going to skirt along its edge. What I dodn't get is why the models at that time still had the storm moving across Tampa and up the north.




Excellent observation... and it was a front: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/archives/noaa/2022/noaad1_2022092712.gif

5:10 into this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psxR5JRjCPA Levi shows it too. And at the 6:00 mark you can see the moisture cut off (dry air behind NW / wet ahead SE) marking the front clearly. Problem is the models predicted this feature would be 100-150 miles further N as shown in the video. That distance gap is pretty much the miles between Ft Myers and Tampa.

A very similar setup is what pushed Wilma very quickly NE across the state, coming ashore at Cape Romano and exiting near Jupiter. It went from a Cat 2 storm outside to a cold (by FL standards) day within a matter of hours. The high was 87, then the low was 65. I was doing clean up wearing a hoodie and jeans and so that dramatic change in weather is stuck in my head forever. One day hot, summer tropical storm... boom next day blue bird sunshine, crisp and cool out.

Thanks for the radar loops.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 230
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #114404 - Sat Oct 01 2022 04:48 PM

Not a weather post but SIXTY FIVE people confirmed dead so far.

GOOD GOD. One of the deadliest storms ever!

If you're in one of the areas hit, I wish you a speedy recovery both health and financially.

Wow. Just wow. More people should have evacuated. I guess while it was half in the gulf and half over land, it must have been a living nightmare.

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.


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kapSt.Cloud
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 50
Loc: Long Beach, MS
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #114405 - Sat Oct 01 2022 11:19 PM

You do like to embellish don’t you?

WOW! Just wow! GOOD GOD! These ARE the deadliest storms ever in Florida.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article266626756.html

Would you please wait until the final count is done before going off the deep end?

WOW! Just wow! GOOD GOD! 10,000 to 12,000 died from the Galveston, Texas hurricane in 1900! Now go take your anti-anxiety meds before having a stroke!


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Keith B
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc: FL, Orange County
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #114410 - Tue Oct 04 2022 06:26 PM

Delayed post. Good call on the cat 4. GOM waters were very warm to hot and deep.

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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