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Archives 2020s >> 2023 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Sean Lounge
      #114810 - Thu Oct 12 2023 02:14 AM

The NHC official forecast for Sean weakens the already struggling system to a remnant low by Monday afternoon (Oct 16th).

We are starting this Lounge in part because of this official forecast, as well as model guidance suggesting that a hobbled Sean or open wave makes it further west and has an opportunity to encounter what may become a more favorable environment in or near the Caribbean sometime next week. A plurality of global model ensembles suggest that a region bounded by just east of the Caribbean to the east to the Bay of Campeche to the west should be conducive for tropical cyclone development and/or intensification during the back half of October.

The other reason for this Lounge is out of an abundance of caution and interest given that we simply do not have much to work with in the way of any analog seasons with a strong El Niño in the Pacific alongside a highly anomalously warm Atlantic.


Some 18Z Sean runs from the Hurricane models:

HWRF End of run: Sean is located near 15N 52.5W as a 1011mb open wave at 0z Oct 17
HMON End of run: Sean is located near 16.75N 49.9W as a 1010mb open wave at 0z Oct 17
HAFS-A End of run: Sean is located near 17N 54W as a 1005mb sharp wave with possibly a small closed low at 0z Oct 17
HAFS-B End of run: Sean is located near 18.5N 52.25W as an open wave at 0z Oct 17

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cieldumort
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Re: Sean Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #114811 - Thu Oct 12 2023 09:10 PM

Sean recovered itself a bit overnight during the diurnal maximum and was back to being a tropical storm after a downgrade to TD at 11PM.

The improved organization and convection has seeemed to help the cyclone also maintain more of a northwestly track, and as such, it is even more likely that Sean never stays low enough to be a longer term threat to the Caribbean and/or CONUS. In fact, models incresaingly dissipate Sean in the face of the present difficult shear, and increasing dry air that waits ahead, within 72 hours.

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