Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City , FL
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OK. Lets end that stuff there. Use the PM if you need to.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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Posts: 181
Loc:
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Quote:
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It looks like the center has jumped north of the tip of Haiti. This maybe just a wobble, but if it's not, the track will probably be shifted more to the east. Some of the model runs are showing a more easterly track to include the Bahamas.
ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT. WATCHES MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL OR NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT.
Since it is not the lower Bahamas that would be in the direct path should it turn to the north now.. it appears that the is thinking that the storm will move more across the peninsula and hit the Bahamas from the west.
Given it's latest movement, I believe the alternate scenario I mentioned this morning is becoming more and more possible (and finally picked up by at least one model) ... that the center of never crosses, or even touches the FL peninsula, but moves NNW just off the E coast (along the eastern edge of the current cone). This would cause a lot more grief for the central and NW Bahamas.
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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It looks like the center has jumped north of the tip of Haiti. This maybe just a wobble, but if it's not, the track will probably be shifted more to the east. Some of the model runs are showing a more easterly track to include the Bahamas.
Looking at the GITMO radar loop, it does appear that the center is now north of the SW Haitian Peninsula and still moving to the NW towards Cuba. Now that it is clearing Haiti we could be at the beginning of a re-intensification cycle.
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/products/anima...2>ype=JPG
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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GulfBreezeFL
Registered User
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Posts: 8
Loc: Gulf Breeze, FL
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Can anyone explain to me what has to happen in the atmosphere for to take a track toward the AL/FL border. I just don't trust these models and predictions since was supposed to hit Appalachacola and hit N.O. and was supposed to drift to N.O. and ended up creaming us in Pensacola area. Is there any chance that in the next 2 days the atmospheric conditions could change and bring up through the hot waters of the mid gulf and into Pensacola? I am not asking for a % prediction, but am trying to understand why the models and are so sure this thing is going to dogleg hard to the right in a couple of days.
This site is the best, that's why i am a long time supporter and donator. You guys have helped me out immensely in and and that's why i'm going to be sending Mike C. a check this week to help him pay for his enormous bandwidth costs that this site must use, more and more each year.
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I don't know if I need to justify my above post on the Cayman's dropping the Hurricane Watch or not. But I will.
I have learned to Never Ever drop your guard on a Tropical Cyclone that is South of your location.
Whether it's S, SE, or SW. It can turn.
Along the same line I personally watch them until they are above my Latitude also.
Here are the coordinates for the Caymans.
Grand Cayman -- GC 19.32 -81.26
Little Cayman, Cayman Brac -- GC 19.70 -79.94
While the current Model Forecasts take East of the Caymans, forecast can and do change. As do the intensity forecasts.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
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If you look at the water vapor carefully tonight you will see it's a very fluid environment out there and it looks to me a new upper level low .. steering mechanism may be forming to the North of the storm... not close enough to hurt it but well........ it's real fluid and I don't see a wnw path and what looked a bit like a weak, weak high to the north of the storm.. or dry air looks weaker and is filling in from the outflow off of .
Looked like it was going west on some images but it seems whats you see isn't always what is really going on..
Which is why we have RECON  and dropsondes..
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
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Given it's latest movement, I believe the alternate scenario I mentioned this morning is becoming more and more possible (and finally picked up by at least one model) ... that the center of never crosses, or even touches the FL peninsula, but moves NNW just off the E coast (along the eastern edge of the current cone). This would cause a lot more grief for the central and NW Bahamas.
That solution would require the ridge of high pressure to have already departed, which it hasn't, and the digging trof to be already on the FL peninsula. It's in Eastern Colorado. The steering currents don't support that either. It isn't making a definitive Northerly motion, but actually is just about on the forecast track. I'm still with the forecast track for now and awaiting the Cuba crossing. The modeling just doesn't indicate that solution anywhere. There is actually tighter consensus than there has been in a while.
A correction:
A slight correction---- the trof has moved somewhat from eastern Colorado and the tailing edge is in North Texas/Eastern New Mexico
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Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net
Edited by TampaRand (Sun Aug 27 2006 10:00 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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That solution would require the ridge of high pressure to have already departed, which it hasn't, and the digging trof to be already on the FL peninsula. It's in Eastern Colorado. The steering currents don't support that either. It isn't making a definitive Northerly motion, but actually is just about on the forecast track. I'm still with the forecast track for now and awaiting the Cuba crossing. The modeling just doesn't indicate that solution anywhere. There is actually tighter consensus than there has been in a while.
It's a different ULL. I see it on water vapor now. The "outflow" from is being pulled up and around this ULL which is well north of the storm, and the ULL is tracking due west it appears, toward the NW Bahamas and the east coast of Florida. The pattern probably looks more complicated to me than it really is, but something pulled to a NW track from WNW, and this looks like the culprit.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Daniel, I would just trust that the Caymen Island Mets are getting info from that they trust. There is a big difference between the general public taking a downgrade the wrong way and an official government forecasting service. I don't think you are giving the Meteorologist there enough credit by saying they are taking the storm lightly becuase they downgraded warnings. They looked at the data and are feeling that the worst they might see are some TS storm force winds, but do not consider it an absolute based on the forecast. Its not like they are just sitting there looking at the public advisories and saying, 'Oh well, its just a TS. We can drop our warnings.' They comminicate with the Hurricane Center too.
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Jim
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Doombot!
Weather Guru
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Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
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Looking at the GITMO radar loop, it does appear that the center is now north of the SW Haitian Peninsula and still moving to the NW towards Cuba. Now that it is clearing Haiti we could be at the beginning of a re-intensification cycle.
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/products/anima...2>ype=JPG
TG
If anything it looks to be on the wane per the Color IR loop.
IR loop
Hope the trend continues.
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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
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Quote:
If you look at the water vapor carefully tonight you will see it's a very fluid environment out there and it looks to me a new upper level low .. steering mechanism may be forming to the North of the storm... not close enough to hurt it but well........ it's real fluid and I don't see a wnw path and what looked a bit like a weak, weak high to the north of the storm.. or dry air looks weaker and is filling in from the outflow off of .
Looked like it was going west on some images but it seems whats you see isn't always what is really going on..
I did see a small pocket of 30kt shear a ways northeast of the center (NE quadrantish-but way off towards the farthest outflow) and some Cirrus clouds in that area.
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Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 27 2006 10:14 PM)
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4636
Loc: Orlando, FL
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This thread has corruption problems so I'm closing it a bit early. I have put a stub up for the new 11PM update a bit early to fix problems with missing posts.
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hofloka
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 11
Loc: Tampa, Florida
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Just check the map and i think from an amateur point of view that you are right
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JMII
Weather Master
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Posts: 546
Loc: Margate, Florida
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Reposted in the new thread... thanks.
new thread... future posts over there. -HF
Edited by JMII (Sun Aug 27 2006 10:51 PM)
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