CFHC
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Posts: 149
Loc: East Central Florida
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As Bertha fizzles out over land, TD #3 starts to spin up off the South Carolina Coast. All models suggest TD #3 will Strengthen and move away from the coast. We will be watching this one.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow Even more on the links page.
- [jc]
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Oh,ho,hum! TD#3 . Just another fish spinner. NEXT!!!
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Here's one for you. I noticed that the official track for the remnants of Bertha is to take it west than more wsw and be just north of Galveston later in the week. Let me throw something out there. What happens if this does take place but the LLC that is left somehow skirts a little further south and gets back out over the water just south of Galveston? I know you all are laughing right now but nobody expected Allison last year to go up into NE Texas and then come right back down over us and back into the water,either. I'm just throwing this out for entertainment,but if it is predicted to get this close to the water again than why not throw the idea out there. I must say that I did get the information about the remnants being near Galveston later in the week off of Accuweather.COM. Any thoughts on this?
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greg-kfdmtv
Meteorologist
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Posts: 9
Loc: Beaumont, Texas
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Shawn....
The remains of Bertha are centered just north of Baton Rouge and appear to be moving slightly south of due west at this time.
The ridge to the northwest and north of the low should force the remains to move more southwesterly with time as the ridge builds more to the southwest.
I expect the remains of Bertha to be in the Houston-Beaumont area by Wednesday morning.
There is an outside chance that the low could move just offshore from the upper Texas coast. However, I would not expect any increase in intensity but a motion as described could
certainly allow the low to stay alive producing heavy rains.
Greg Bostwick
Chief Meteorologist
KFDM-TV Beaumont, Texas
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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What happens,though, if the low can stay alive and get back into the water? I have seen these things happen before and when they do they seem to explode . I know that this is very far fetched but as we all have seen anything is possible when you are dealing with tropical systems......especially remains of one. I don't think it would have to be over water too long for something to get going. You know as well as I do how systems have gone crazy when they get right along the Texas coast. It's like the coastline feeds them more.
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greg-kfdmtv
Meteorologist
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Posts: 9
Loc: Beaumont, Texas
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Shawn...
I would only expect that the convection near the center would be kept alive with the threat from this system being heavy rains.
I believe it would have to move 50-100 miles offshore to redevelop significantly. That southern track appears quite unlikely to me.
Greg Bostwick
Chief Meteorologist
KFDM-TV Beaumont, Texas
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Shawn,
Don't get yer hopes up on Bertha. She was a 'tease' if you know what I mean. Think about it. An eye came literally across this city and we got .03" of rainfall. Bah humbug. Maybe - JUST MAYBE - if the storms fire up again late tonight, we could be under a band. But with New Orleans' tropical luck, I'd expect the bands of training showers to fire off about 5 miles west of the city.
The remnants are definitely going to have to head WSW in order for you to see anything out of them. The center appears to be headng right for Alexandria at the moment (pop. 100k, 180 miles NW of New Orleans). But if you get what we got - and that was two nice days which were breezy and in the 80's, feel fortunate.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Well, almost 3 named storms down and still not much to write home about.I'm beginning to think that we may either go down the list of names farther than I thought (thanks to all the fish spinners) or we may have a fairly quite season. I know that it is still a little early in the season, but our weather pattern seems to be a little goofy. Maybe I'm just getting a little impatient.
T. Leap
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Barry B
Registered User
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Posts: 2
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Greg Its great to see you back on the site. Shawn You and I think alot alike. I am in Cameron Parish LA. Question, where is all the regular posters are they posting on another board?
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StormHound
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Waiting for a real storm to track...
I predict TD #3 will hit Shawn, I mean Galviston, as a Cat 5...
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Why do they have TD 3 moving South at 6 mph, when the latest coordinates would have it moving SSW? It also looks less impressive than earlier. Could this slip the trough?
Keith
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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By the way, has anyone read Joe B.'s post for Monday Evening? He sure likes to try and keep things interesting.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Did anyone read the TD#3 discussion? Boy it sure sounds intresting. If the system manages to slip south of 30N which it's not far from we may have a wondering storm with better outflow. Now I said earlier to today that it would make the turn northeast, but it's something to keep a close eye on until it does.
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Larry
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 30
Loc: Raleigh, NC
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Shawn,
Trust Joe B. to throw a monkey wrench in the works 
He has been pretty good at predicting these 2 systems; hope he is wrong now and it is just a fish spinner. Or, if it is a weak system, we wouldn't mind a little rain here in NC....
which would be the last thing I would expect.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Agree Joe, thought the call to take it NE was permature, but odds do favor it. But more doubt as of 11 pm discussion. The fact that it has remained weak has helped it get pushed further SSW. If it gets much further south it can avoid the impact of the trough and get cut off leaving it drifting until it gets under the influence of the high over the midwest, which could shove it westward. A definite possibility. Conditions would gradually improve after the trough passage if it did miss it. AVN may be a bit too aggressive plowing that cold front all the way into FL...so the trough may split. Could become trouble for the east coast of FL and points west if this happens. Cheers Steve H.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Agree Steve do think AVN is overdoing the frontal passage into FL. I think if TD#3 can get to 28N we may be in for an intresting ride...
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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What did Joe B have to say in his evening update? Seem's like his website has been down off and on for the better part of 2 days. I can't get it up now (hardy-har-har).
But you want to see something bizarre? Check out the last model which brings #3 just to the east coast of FL and then proceeds to launch four storms in succession from that part of the troff - all spinners. I've never, EVER (thanks Jericho) seen anything like that before.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Larry
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 30
Loc: Raleigh, NC
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Steve,
Joe B. said that the latest run of the european showed a south then SW course. I'll quote a short bit of his following remarks:
"The problem we have here is the trof coming in collapses the height field all AROUND the system, not in back of it. This means the stream flow, instead of being southwest and taking it out, may very well be light north since the ridge to the west is stronger than the ridge to the east."
He then restated his feelings that the pattern he sees would call for watching the SW Atlantic or eastern gulf even if this system did escape to the NE.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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td 3 is moving s to ssw faster than computer models said. think trough will miss it. said it will be in good enviroment for good outflow, just north of bahamas. looks good in 1 am. satellite pic.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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It's starting to look more and more like the trough may not pick it up. It's also beginning to look like the Florida east coast had better keep a close eye on this one. TD#3 has a very good chance to really get it's act together and eventually find its way into the GOM. Let's take this even a bit further, does anyone want to comment what direction it may go if it does get into the GOM? T. Leap
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