Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Hey Colleen! A lot of nothing out there currently! Think the wave in the Caribbean will head west. Seems over Honduras now. Something gotta develop at some point, 'cept that damn low sitting at 32N/50W is forcing the ridge to nudge underneath it and send lows departing from Africa to to dip low around 30W then begin to head WNW. It's disrupting the development of these. I beginning to hate this tropics watching!! uuhhh..Cheers!! Steve H.
|
Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
|
|
Atlantic potential: There is a wave in the central Atantic today that looks OK at this time. Thunderstorm activity, despite an increase, remains limited. This wave will be monitored for development, but I believe the one about to come off of African may just be the one. Chance of development:2/10
African Wave: This wave has a massive area of convection assoicated with it, and I believe this one will hold together quite well. It should make the trip across...and may be the first major threat to any land/island areas for this season. Chance of development: 4/10
Inresting Bastardi said that the pattern this year is "classic" with a mean trof at 85W and a big, strong ridge sitting over the Western Atlantic. It does appear this is happening...so we just need storms to develop in the Atantic and the threats will likely emerge. Hell, that's pretty neat...this is like a "just add water" type thing.
Look at this: 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/cmb/sst_forecast/images/cmb.recordxy.gif
Have you ever seen this type of El Nino? The forecast shows this one messing around and really doing nothing until about April 2003, then May, June, and BOOM! All of the sudden, a well-defined tongue of water is off of the South American coast with SSTA's over 2 degrees above normal coming from the west and east. I'd have to think that this won't even happen, or if it does, it will be in a much weaker form. I mean, how many El Nino's have you seen stay weak for a whole year and then explode? I don't think there has been any, but I'll have to look into this. However, I will say if the QBO switches to easterly early next year, that forecast may come to realitly. That would make the latter half of 2003 a wild and unpredictable weather year. We'll worry about that when the time comes, however.
Kevin 
|
Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
LOL Steve! No, we didn't get "whacked"...
To the other Steve...listen up here, would ya? I just learned something very interesting while watching Fox News...it seems that Shep Smith is one of "us", and he was pointing out the satellite loop to the "news reader" which got my attention because he never talks about weather. He said, "See that area of convection near Cuba on the loop? Did you know that on August 15th/16th, the convection in that area looked exactly like that? And do you know what happened? (she didn't know) Hurricane Camille formed from that...so I'll be watching it."
I didn't know that, did you? He was 5 years old when that happened and living in MS.
Tomorrow their will be a test. Study for it. 
--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Hey, I went back to graduate school and that's it! Only tests I'm taking from now on will be hearing, urine, stress...and I don't have to study for them...just not eat!! OK, we'll have to watch that area. There are other areas in the central and eastern Atlantic as well. They're evolving, but all of the sudden boom, things will turn on like a light switch. Waiting for that to happen...patiently - but I believe it will happen. Notice also a convective spin a few hundred miles east of the windwards...is that the energy left from the previous 1011 low that dissipated? Has a nice little rotation. Chat later Colleen - Cheers!! Steve H.
|
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
|
|
Hurricane Andrew is officially classified as a CAT 5 storm as of today.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/NOAA_pr_8-21-02.html
--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
|
Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
|
|
august 21st. more often than not we have an active system somewhere in the basin today.. not so this year. fausto got going in the eastpac today though.. and i havent dropped my earlier assumption that eastpac development would telegraph atlantic development.. though i think my proxy week timetable isnt going to work. id be very surprised if nothing is active before the weekend is over.
as usual.. place i think development is most likely is out near bermuda. the broad SFC low slowly windmilling under the northeastern low center is still there.. more of the globals like the post frontal low that is being resolved out of that shortwave off the NE coast. honestly think a fish spinner will lead the way.
tropical waves are confusing. the one near 45w i had the most stock in.. has in fact lost its amplitude and flattened into an bump. so now im guessing the one following.. 30 to 35w or so will end up taking the forefront. no real skill to it.. waves are finicky things. bastardi was showing the series of lively waves coming down the pipeline.. so if goes negative along with the nao slide about to drop.. maybe we will get the familiar alley of storms.
wave in the western carib.. energy seems to be sliding wnw. i doubt it will cause trouble.. unless whatever makes it up to the BOC slows down. hard to call.. since it is now upstream of a developing eastpac storm.
thats everything in the basin.. that isnt happening yet.
richie thanks for posting that article. theyve re-analyzed a high profile storm.. wonder if they plan to go revise more best track data. right off the bat i'm thinking celia in 1970 and betsy in 1965 could end up being turned up a notch.
frank p and colleen.. poking your faces back in when the basin is primed for its yearly outburst? dont blame ya.. all you missed were 3 pissant tropical storms and.. fore caster matthew. hopefully this represents a change of theme for the season.. annoying to interesting. dare i say.. fun?
good evening to all.. and good hunting.
HF 2205z21august
|
Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
|
|
found something i want. there is some kind of up-to-date global index graphic i found on tropicalweatherwatchers.com
it's on the seasonal forecasts section of the page... right below the current global SSTa pic from NOAA/nesdis. graphic probably from a university or NOAA site somewhere, i reckon.
anybody know where to get that? learning to use it could be handy.
HF 2247z21august
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
sure miss john hope on , lyons is not to good, he has to hurry thru the whole report. disturbance in carrib could be trouble. and monster wave bout to come off africa.
|
Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
|
|
If that big wave emerging africa soon dont do anything then I can tell all of you that the cape verde season will be a dud one because that wave will have all in favor maybe the exception the marginal waters in the eastern atlantic north of 13n.So let's see in the comming days what that wave will do but to me looks the most impressive one this season comming out of africa.
--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
looks like dolly may be here soon thinks look good south of cuba and the gulf could be rolling soon
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Evening all
Wave in NW Caribbean maintaining its convection throughout the day, of what's out there at the moment this one's certainly got my attention... espcially since its so close to the GOM... Yeah there's some upper lows in the area which will hinder development but the system look rather impressive on the IR tonight, also hints of a WNW to NW movement, as best I can determine.... something to watch in a season to date of little significance....
Some discussion by Mr Sheppard on FOX news today that's the area where Camille develop. He's close, but Camille was more north northeast of where this system is, and was basically due south of Havanna when she became a hurricane.... but close enough in general...
Colleen glad to see you back!.
Hey Steve, was TS Bertha a monster or what.... on the beach in Biloxi we got at least 0.10 inches of rain and wind gusts to 20 mph.... geesh
HF, you're right - looks like Colleen and I didn't miss much. Said earlier in the season that thing don't really get cranked until mid Aug to end of Sept... if things don't start cranking up soon then I'll start grilling the crow! Beer in crow on the beach in Biloxi if we don't have at least three named storms in the next three weeks!!!!
I've been remodeling my house during the summer, so I don't want any hurricanes over this way for sure...
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Sorry, forgot to logon
last post was by Frank P
note on Andrew..... As the saying goes ""the older I get the better I was"".... He was a monster storm and deserved the Cat 5 rating.... good move... special on Andrew was pretty good....
|
57497479
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
|
|
We can only hope that the BIG WAVE will be the turning point. I don't know if its just me or maybe there is a big smear on my computer screen but all those waves between 30 and 50 looks like they have been blasted with something and scattered over the atlantic. Until this wave comes off of Africa and we see what it is going to do , the only colorful ball out there is in the Caribbean. Toni
--------------------
TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
>>Hey Steve, was TS Bertha a monster or what.... on the beach in Biloxi we got at least 0.10 inches of rain and wind gusts to 20 mph.... geesh
LOL. We got about a half inch and gusts 25-35. I went out to the lakefront and there were waves hitting the seawall and spraying up 9-12' above the roadway, but that was the extent of the excitement here. Across the lake in Folsom, they did manage 15", so at least somebody had something to talk about. It wasn't me.
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
|
|
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/grbcalc.html
At least one model develops something at the far eastern atlantic and that is the ECMF model as the link shows so let's wait and see what will happen but conditions are more prime in atlantic than past weeks.
--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
disturbance in carribean moving more north than northwest, will develop soon. heading toward yucatan chanel.
|
57497479
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
|
|
Just checked the loop and it looks to me like it may be moving a little more N NW. Just call it a gut feeling but I think that we may have some futher development with this system, expecially if it is still healthy looking tomorrow, you can pretty much count on it! Toni
--------------------
TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
|
57497479
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
|
|
Hey where is everbody this morning ???? Time to wake up and smell the coffee. Tropics are holding together this AM  . The convection in the w caribbean is still there and there is a blow up at around 52 this morning. The BIG WAVE is getting ready to exit the African coast today so we should start seeing something develope real soon. What are your thoughts on the caribbean some say there is no chance for developement but its just been around to long and it is certainly holding its on. Toni
--------------------
TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
|
Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
|
|
I feel the wave in the Caribbean has a 0/10 chance for development. Just to close to Central America and moving west. For the wave at 52W, looking good Tomorrow will be my birthday, all I want is a TROPICAL STORM to form!!!!!!!!
|
57497479
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
|
|
WELL HAPPY BIRTHDAY BRUCE!!! You might just get your wish. Toni
PS. Caribbean still might suprise us.......
--------------------
TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
