John C
Unregistered
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The system everyone was watching in the eastern Atlantic, is now Tropical Depression #4. It's moving west northwest at 16 mph, and is expected to strengthen. We will be keeping a close eye out on this one.
5:00 PM Update: HELLO DOLLY
7PM Update by Mike C:
Tropical Storm Dolly is moving westward (wnw) now and will continue on this trek for a few days. It's a bit too early to determine if it will be a fish spinner or not so we'll wait a bit longer. As of now I think it has a chance at a run toward the NE Caribbean islands, but (as one would figure) just as much or more of it moving away. This is all several days out, so we'll have time to watch it.
The System north of the Bahamas isn't looking as good tonight. It probably won't develop and may cause a bunch of rain for us later. Still, we will watch it, as things could change.
The system in the Caribbean could strengthen slowly, Aircraft Recon is being sent to it later on.
Areas of interest are marked below by John's annotated image:
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.
- [john@flhurricane.com]
Edited by CFHC (Fri Aug 30 2002 01:32 AM)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Although too early to establish, models initially give it a more northerly track (WNW). I'll bet on a so called fish-spinner.
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Looks well organized and Dolly is around the corner very soon as it moves more westnorthwest.But the key will be the shear that it will encounter ahead if it fades away or it will be there and dissipate it but I think that the shear will not be so strong to tear it apart and about the track the Islands should watch it because comming from very low latituds it poses a threat.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I still see this thing moving west (the TD) maybe a hair more than 270. It will strengthen nicely though. Pumping up the ridge there and shear ahead of "her" is lessening in my opinion, and the environment around "her" and out ahead of her is lessening the shear and it's showing up only further west as she pushes west. A definite threat to the islands down the road. Cheers!!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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everone is talking about dolly but she isnt born yet. She is
still a TD (fetus) but could be born by the weekend. I have said she will be close to TS strength today but by tomorrow she will have a hard time keeping her strength and might weaken to even a open wave before getting her act together later sunday into monday around the 2nd.
Now with this the case she will be more west. Its not the latitude that the TD is now as the reasoning, its the system will be week and steerd then by the low level flow. I expect her to be just e of the NE islands by Laborday and become Dolly by then or again. Ill post more later on this and also my mentioned carribean system later. scottsvb hurricaneupdatecenter
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J.J.
Unregistered
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I wouldn't bank on TD Four's long-term prospects. The AVN, , and MRF all show the persistence of an upper-level trough to its northwest through at least 72 hours. Assuming this system continues tracking WNW, it will probably get picked up by the upper-low. At the very least, it will encounter strong westerly shear.
So in the final analysis, I wouldn't be surprised if it recurves well east of the Antilles. Of course, nature is full of surprises, but this is the way I think things look for now.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Well, Dolly may well come to be, probably will...but closer to home....the sw carib feature is looking healthier by the hr, will probably cycle some, but, if it holds together through tonight, it may end up being a traditionally busy Labor Day weekend.
Also,,,,of passing interest...in the very bottom of the BOC---- saw that someone said some of the models showed a TS forming and moving into Bville....this system is probably too close to land, but in light of the model interest, just thought I'd mention it....
Show time..the real season is starting....
IHS,
Bill
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932002) ON 20020829 1200 UTC
 
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...
020829 1200 020830 0000 020830 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.5N 78.5W 12.1N 79.2W 13.2N 80.2W
BAMM 11.5N 78.5W 12.3N 79.8W 13.3N 81.4W
A98E 11.5N 78.5W 11.6N 78.6W 12.1N 79.2W
LBAR 11.5N 78.5W 11.8N 79.1W 13.1N 80.2W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS
...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...
020831 0000 020831 1200 020901 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.7N 81.3W 16.0N 82.7W 18.4N 85.6W
BAMM 14.4N 83.0W 15.4N 84.8W 17.5N 88.5W
A98E 13.1N 80.3W 14.8N 81.7W 17.8N 86.0W
LBAR 14.9N 81.7W 16.6N 83.4W 20.0N 86.4W
SHIP 44KTS 50KTS 60KTS
DSHP 44KTS 50KTS 60KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 78.5W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 11.4N LONM12 = 78.3W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 78.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I think TD #4 heads WNW with a likely curve back to the west down the road. This would be due to weakening/remaining weak and involved with the low level flow. It's definitely a threat to the Islands. Models tend to always want to recurve CV systems, so that's not a surprise. It should also be no surprise that they're likely to back off on recurvature (further west) with each successive run.
As to Bill's post, that's where I'm looking too. The BOC actually shows some outflow, but this might be shear coming in over the top from the Pacific. The SW Carribean has been hot/cold for the last 4 days. It looked best yesterday, but has some symmetry now with it. Recon is scheduled to investigate tomorrow if warranted.
Tough call on either BOC or SW Caribbean as to eventual strength and landfalls. BOC probably would nose NNE/NE over time (unless pushed into Mexico or TX), SW Caribbean is anyone's guess. I don't have one 
Steve
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Ok, I posted this before but when I closed the page out and then came back, it wasn't there. Hm.
I'm not quite sure that I would be willing to bet that TD4 will be a fishspinner just yet...there are too many factors involved to do that, IMHO. For now anyway, it looks to be a pretty healthy system anyway.
As far as the Bahamas area is concerned, I can't seem to locate that feature (I'm more than likely blind) but I did notice the area at 68W, and that is beginning to look pretty interesting also.
As Bill mentioned, the system near the Bahamas may make for an interesting Labor Day Weekend. However, since I am unable at this moment to locate it, LOL, would someone please be kind enough to give me a general area to look at? Lat/Long coordinates would be even better. I did see a spin just barely N of Jamaica, I'm not sure if this is the area of concern or not. Also noticed that the is saying a "reconnaissance aircraft will investigate this system tomorrow if necessary".
The area in the lower BOC IS looking mighty impressive at the moment; however, I've seen what seems like the same exact picture in the same exact area a few times this year....only to watch them fade into nothing. I have heard that the shear is suppossed to lessen in that area and there is a ridge of high pressure building above it, so who knows?
Hopefully, this time my post will actually post. :-)
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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WHXX04 KWBC 291731
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L
INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 29
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 11.4 78.2 0./ .0
6 11.8 80.2 281./20.7
12 12.2 80.4 335./ 4.0
18 12.3 81.5 276./10.4
24 11.9 82.6 251./12.1
30 11.6 83.6 255./ 9.3
36 11.1 83.7 198./ 6.0
42 11.0 83.3 102./ 4.3
48 11.0 83.5 262./ 1.5
54 11.0 83.3 77./ 1.3
STORM DISSIPATED AT 54 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Gary, thanks for posting the model outputs. It appears, according to these models, that this system 93L will be moving to the WNW according to the plots I used on the sun-sentinal tracking map.
However, on the model, it shows it stalling after 30 hours in the area off 11N/83W area until 54 hours at which time the model has it dissipating.
I know these are early runs, so we will have to wait and see what happens over the next few days.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Colleen-
The area I was referring to is in the SW Carib, altho the system east of the Bahamas also bears some scrutiny.
The SW Carib system peaked about an hour ago, on the diurnal downswing now...the question is whether it'll fire up tonight.
Bad sign for it---rope clouds seen earlier today in Sat analysis. However, time will tell.
IHS,
Bill
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Thanks, Bill...I appreciate the info. Now I am off to pick up the kiddies from school. :-)
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Take a look at:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
It looks like the area South of Cuba is starting to pick up convection/rotation/outflow
What do you-all think??
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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Hi Colleen our third or forth year doing this Ain't it great
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
TROPICAL STORM FOUR (AL042002) ON 20020829 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...
020829 1800 020830 0600 020830 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.5N 32.2W 9.6N 34.3W 9.9N 36.8W
BAMM 9.5N 32.2W 9.6N 34.4W 10.0N 36.7W
A98E 9.5N 32.2W 9.5N 34.7W 9.8N 37.4W
LBAR 9.5N 32.2W 9.6N 34.6W 10.1N 37.5W
SHIP 35KTS 44KTS 52KTS
DSHP 35KTS 44KTS 52KTS
...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...
020831 0600 020831 1800 020901 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.2N 39.3W 10.7N 42.0W 12.0N 45.6W
BAMM 10.4N 39.0W 11.1N 41.4W 12.3N 45.2W
A98E 10.1N 40.1W 10.3N 42.8W 11.1N 47.5W
LBAR 10.7N 40.5W 11.4N 43.6W 13.4N 48.2W
SHIP 60KTS 68KTS 75KTS
DSHP 60KTS 68KTS 75KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.5N LONCUR = 32.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 9.4N LONM12 = 29.9W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 9.2N LONM24 = 27.1W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 50NM
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Refering to the previous numerical models 13n at 48w isnt to high of a lat. and not too different from tracks other storms that kept us on our toes(Floyd) took. That same last run seems to show strengthening out to at least 72hrs. So will it be a fish spinner ? who knows bu at least a change in the cycles out that way is evident by this one making it(so far) threw the dead zone that has existed out there all season.
troy
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I know its a different ocean butthis sat image remonds me of the Atlantic '95
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10?PHOT=yes&AREA=pacific/stitched&PROD=ir&NAV=tropics&CGI=tropics.cgi&ARCHIVE=Latest&MOSAIC_SCALE=15&CURRENT=LATEST.jpg
troy
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Good catch Troy! If you buy into the teleconnection thing that Bastardi is always pushing, this could be a sign of what may be happening in the ATL soon.
In fact, looking at it right now, we have:
1. a TD about to be a TS
2. Disturbance E of Bahamas giving it a go (shear monster nearby though)
3. Disturbance in SW Carib Invests are running on
4. Flare up in BOC lifting N
5. Hmmm..central Gulf starting to fire?
Show's on, actors coming on the stage.....
IHS,
Bill
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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its official, tropical stoem dolly!! by 5:00 pm NWS
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