Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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TD9: As far as landfall goes, I'm thinking Pensicola to Appalachacola (did I spell that right?). This is assuming that TD9 begins moving more northerly overnight. If a northerly motion doesn't happen then things become a whole lot more interesting.
On the path I believe this one will travel, the Florida Peninsula should get 1-4 inches of rain tomorrow and Saturday (combined totals). Isolated amounts of 5 inches are possible. Isolated tornadoes and waterspouts may occur in the panhandle. Gusty winds likely across peninsula while panhandle should receive a good, steady 15 knots with gusts as high as 30 tomorrow. Probably will be Hanna at landfall...40-45 knots is what I'm thinking. Won't be a memorable storm unless flooding occurs.
I'll post my thoughts on the future Isidore (12N,43W) by tomorrow afternoon at the latest. My early take: could be big, big trouble for the SE US sometime next week *IF* it can tackle the hurdles ahead of it. That is a big *IF*. Look for my thoughts on the "Storm Forum" here on .
Kevin 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Thanks---Jason-Great job!!!!!!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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ssw at 6 the south side of the storm starting to rap this could be the start what about this and the ssw at 6
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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I am seeing this wave slowly organizing as there is some banding taking place and convection is trying to form near the low center.
Because I am In Puerto Rico that is why I am so interested in what is the future of this wave will be.I know that it will affect the eastern caribbean but In what way it will do so is the question because it has good conditions to develop but the only thing that is slowing down it's developemt is the dry air.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Honestly, I haven't given it any more than a glance this evening...9 is keeping me pretty busy..
It does look as impressive as any wave this year, and it does look like a carib storm...but I haven't devoted any time to it, so you'd really be better served to ask someone else's opinion...I doubt I'd do your request justice!
I'll try to get some time and look at it later...
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Jason Kelley
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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new models go west of last track miss looks good still dont have a clue could the front go by and leave this thing
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Hey Steve, check out the these model runs... impact ranges from just east of New Orleans to just west of Pensacola... MS/AL line might be new target ..... of course it's not even moving north yet... if any of this comes to fruition watches or warning should be shifted a little to west... I still like Pensacola as the target area.... stay tuned...
http://www.hurricanealley.net/mdltrpatlt02.html
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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And then the 00Z runs shift BACK to the east...at least the track models...check them out...
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Jason Kelley
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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jason where can i find these track models?
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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Use Franks link above
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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Will be interesting to see the what sees for its current movement. All but the A98E show an end to the southward trend. A98E continues with what teh mentioned at the 8pm update with a ssw then a se movment before a turn back to the north.
Been a loopy season.
troy
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Yeah Jason, looks like the models are pretty much in agreement on latest run... except for , which was pretty decent of late (old Eddie for example).... and still keeps it just east of NO. Regardless, still looks like your Fort Walton prediction might be right on if the models come to fruition....
still waiting for north movement....
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Pretty long way to go (meteorologically) before we see if I am right or not...I think the cyclonic loop of the LLC around the mid-level center is continuing tonight, and if we had visibles we'd be seeing a S or even SSE motion now, and an east motion overnight...I expect the N motion to start in about 4-8 hrs or so...just in time for the first vis's tomorrow AM.
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Jason Kelley
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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look north of u/p new low forming storms trying to rap up there this thing looks like it is doing some crazy stuff and the reg low seems to be trying to fire can one help the other look on the w/v loop
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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Frank that run was an earlier run . i beleive the 18Z
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Good point Troy, but still that's the farest west of any run to date... earlier runs never got it past 87.5W or so... this run is close to 89.5W... regardless, I still feel its a Fl panhandle problem and not a MS or LA problem, if it's a problem at all...
Edited by Frank P (Fri Sep 13 2002 02:42 AM)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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hard to pinpoint a exact track. We think we are seeing a drift back to the w again but its hard to see without recon >LOL. How you seeing it Jason in Panama? I might think the might say stationary again but its only drifting. If the turn to the n dont happen by morning, the afternoon might want to take this more NNE then NE into appalachie bay by midday saturday. I disregard the tropical models on usual accounts. Anyways I will post more later tonight. scottsvb
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html
The center shows up very well, and its seems to be moving slowly wsw again after being stationary for a while. Don't really see a SE movement at all right now. I'm not really sold on the loop thing right now.
Houstontracker
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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on that frame storms heading for the center what do you think
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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Great Loop!
From that loop it does seem to be heading (drifting) to the west.
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