Anonymous
Unregistered
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Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 8
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2002
Satellite imagery indicate that the cloud pattern is definitely
becoming better organized. Convection has increased near the center
with developing banding features and the outflow is rapidly
expanding. It appears to be a tropical storm on satellite.
However...an Air Force plane just finished investigating the
depression and found that the minimum pressure has not changed and
it remains about 1006 mb. Max flight level winds are 41 knots
confined to a small area to the northeast of the center.
Therefore...the system is kept at 30 knots. A new plane will be
there at 6 UTC.
IR images still show some patches of cirrus undercutting the outflow
blowing from the southwest. This was confirmed by data from the
dropsondes launched by the NOAA high altitude jet. These winds have
been producing shear. However...most of the numerical models have
been very persistent in developing a 200 mb ridge over the western
Caribbean for the past few days. In fact...latest global run
has a 200 mb anticyclone over the system in 48 hours...perfect for
strengthening. With such a good upper-level environment and the
fact that the tropical cyclone is heading toward an area of
very high upper-oceanic heat content...strengthening is indicated.
The system is expected to be a hurricane by the time it approaches
western Cuba. The continues to be aggressive...bringing the
presure to 939 mb just north of western Cuba.
The depression has been moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees
at 5 or 6 knots during the past few hours. Steering currents are
weak but there is enough ridging to keep the cyclone on a general
slow northwest track through 72 hours. Thereafter...steering
currents are forecast to collapse and the cyclone will move very
little over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or western Cuba. The
official forecast track is in the middle of the ensemble but is
biased toward the latest Global Model run. The latter makes
the cyclone nearly stationary over western Cuba or the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico in 4 or 5 days.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 18/0300z 16.9n 77.9w 30 kts
12hr VT 18/1200z 17.5n 78.7w 35 kts
24hr VT 19/0000z 18.9n 80.0w 45 kts
36hr VT 19/1200z 20.0n 81.0w 55 kts
48hr VT 20/0000z 21.5n 82.5w 65 kts
72hr VT 21/0000z 23.0n 84.0w 75 kts
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Mary
Unregistered
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I know how the storm surge will make it to Orlando from Tampa Bay, IT will stop by adventure Island and suck all the water from the water park up and then dump it on Orlando in the middle of I-4 on Friday afternoon at 5 pm, right after the construction work signs go up and a 5 car fender bender happens and all the people involved are each waiting for their personal attornies and insurance adjusters to arrive on the scene.
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Mary
Unregistered
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Ok, Here I am again. If you want me to I will sic the Lakeland Monster on this storm, keeping it at a mild Cat 1 hurricane that will be just enough of a scare to get a Hurricane Day off for those of us who are fortunate enough to have jobs that let you go home if a hurricane warning has been issued. Of course that would have to be on a Weekday. Not a Saturday or Sunday....
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Here in Orlando our local TV mets had differing views on soon to be Isidore. One is already predicting 'hurricane conditions' for the weekend, while another said 'that maybe this whole thing will blow apart and not affect us'. Yeah, gotta love that technically precise forecasting you get here in O-Town. Hey Jason Kelly, any chance you might move down here??? 
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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next recon is in at 06Z. thats 2am eastern. so if you want to stay up all night, ya can get the next vortex message.
nhc is mentioning the storm stopping near western cuba. apparently more of the reliable models have shifted that way. that makes the florida hit more questionable, and brings the run that turned the storm wsw and sent it to tampico, mexico by the 23rd. since the storm has dawdled so much in the caribbean, that possiblity is opening. have to see if the models start trending to that, or if they just hang it off the coast and wait for another shortwave to flick it into the states. timetable being pushed back, storm probably not landfalling this weekend, unless it REALLY gets itself in gear and makes it far enough north so that it catches the connection. somebody still gets a big hurricane, no matter where it goes, odds are.
HF 0337z18september
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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The Lakeland Monster lives just north of lakeland, In the Green Swamp. He hangs out with Skunk Ape, but lately they have been at odds b/c 'The Lakeland Monster' thinks that GOES 8 rocks while Skunk Ape prefers GOES 10
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Mary, one and the same, eh? That always made me laugh...and you made short work of Harvey a couple of years back, remember....heading due east towards Tampa, then went south to Ft. Myers, crossed the state, and moved right back north again. Work that mojo! Oh and yes, I work in a cube farm and get hurricane days, so don't kill it too bad!
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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nhc mentions on the TD11 discussion that they found an uncontaminated 35kt low level wind vector on the scatterometer scan, and plenty of 30kt ones. pretty close to being a tropical storm itself. maybe it will as it gets drawn into a baroclinic zone, before running away into the north atlantic. it wouldnt even be a generous call, and would add yet another pissant tropical storm to this year's tally.
HF 0334z18september
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
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Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Hey Clyde,
Please let Mary kill this storm. I work in the ER. I don't get hurricane days, I am pre-storm though, so it's not to bad.
--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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LOL...make me an offer!
The Guy I replaced here actually just left WFTV, Tom Russell (former weekends)...and one of the morning guys at WESH (Mike O'Lenick) is a college classmate of mine.
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Jason Kelley
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Domino
Weather Guru
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Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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There was a single frame in the IR loop at 2:15 utc that appears it may be trying to form an eye of sorts...may just be an anomoly in the frame but fun to look at non-the-less. Wonder what the visible will bring us in the morning....these things need night vision...
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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I saw that! looked like a perfect ring. Just east of that other circular area of high /cold convection. At first i was thinking that the "centers" had unstacked themselves. I am up studying and checking the IR every 1/2 hour so anyone else up we can play like we are wethermen!:)
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
shows more of what i saw just east..look at the 03:15 frame
-btw for some reason it is the last 3 frames)
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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TD 10 gets Isidore....
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Domino
Weather Guru
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Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Yea we're looking at the same thing for sure. Glad to see I'm not the only one seeing it. I was also wondering about the storm getting unstacked, but it seems it is just in the process of getting its act really together...That intermediate advisory should have it named for sure.
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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Welcome aboard Domino!
You were right 2am had it as a TS
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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its no eye, its just cloud tops not as high as the surrounding convection. scottsvb
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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scottt, I thought I never slept. You are up as late as me and then again early as me...!
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Domino
Weather Guru
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Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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I'll take anyone's word on it before my own, I'm about as green to this as can be. I have been watching the IR all night and seen the same condition off and on, thought I'd throw the idea out. And thanks Troy :-)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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well florida latest models are all coming around to a major hurricane down the road.........but the direction has been greatly shifted to the west missing the trough. I dont want to change my forcast yet. But if the model runs continue for another 24 hours, then even Texas wont get hit,., it will be a tampico thing. I live in Florida and even though i have a new house, I am the worst luck for getting hit by a hurricane since I love them. Crap Im originally from cleveland and our teams always loss at the end. Blam the direction change on me. Im just bad luck and I been here in tampa since 91, Come to Tampa anyone if you dont want to get hit a a hurricane,,LOL . ok goodnight scottsvb
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