CFHC
Reged:
Posts: 164
Loc: East Central Florida
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At least since the satellite era, there has been no recorded tropical cyclones in the South Atlantic (south of the equator) known, until recently:
Right now it looks like a category 1 storm. This is so unusual the hurricane center nor Brazil is really ready for such an event, but I'm sure they will make do.
- [mike@flhurricane.com]
Edited by CFHC (Fri Mar 26 2004 05:48 PM)
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troy
Unregistered
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I was just about to post about this....crazy huh?!
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NNE
Unregistered
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I suppose (if it misses landfall) it will track to the SW, S, and then SE - mirroring the NW, N, NE form of the Northern Hemisphere? Perhaps the Pentagon is correct in having their "severe future climate change" exercise scenarios.
Wow.
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Summercyclone
Unregistered
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Yes, the Brits are forecasting a recurvature.....
SC
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Hurric
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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Wow, If only someone could get a plane in there. [url=http://www.local6.com/news/2954557/detail.html]Brazil Hurricane News[/url]
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summercyclone
Unregistered
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http://www.local6.com/news/2954557/detail.html]Brazil Hurricane News
That is the corrected link, it's a story from last night. Thanks !
Looks pretty healthy this am and is beginning to impinge on the coast.
One 'purist' correction: this is NOT the first known TC in the SA: that was in 1991 (see Landsea's FAQs); it IS the first HURRICANE to be observed .
The Brits had it recurving and weakening (at first) yesterday. Looks like it has moved w-wsw and strengthened.
Somebody is getting a surprise in Brazil--I think the state is Minas Gerais, but, I am not sure.
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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there's something you don't see every day. i'm sure this will provide insight into the study of hurricanes in general. it's late march, the southern hemisphere equivalent of late september.. so the timing is about right. ought to be volumes of research on this thing upcoming.
HF 1836z27march
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Hurricane
Unregistered
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This is not the first this is the third 
Take a look at a tropical storm that happen earlier this year
http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cycl.../jan2004sat.gif
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NNE
Unregistered
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The entire link didn't make it. Where on the tropical page did you find this? Thanks
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Hurricane
Unregistered
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Here is the page from the met offices.
http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/tcimages/Misc/
It shows 2 out of the 3 south Atlantic tropical cyclones. 
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friend
Unregistered
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i think we all will this to be an unusal year as last year for storms and hurricanes 
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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
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Here is a link describing the effects of this rare storm after landfall.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040329/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/tropical_weather&cid=589&ncid=1112
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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that's what the brazilians have dubbed the storm, after the port city near where it came ashore. i think the jury is probably still out as to exactly how to classify the storm.. on saturday i watched an IR loop and there wasn't much deep convection at all. SSTs in the area are a bit low for what we'd look for in the north atlantic (23-25C), though there are plenty of cases where hurricanes made do over cooler water.
not a classical slam dunk hurricane by any means, but i can foresee this storm being used as an example in the future by the enviro types who are convinced the global climate is 'out of control' or something. only response i have is that i don't feel i can stop watching the basin during the off-season, after ana last april and the december duet of odette and peter just recently. pretty convoluted pattern in the western atlantic right now, come to think....
it's about time for gray's early april update. also, didn't retire any names from last year.. had a feeling fabian and isabel might go, surprised that none went. i'd get rid of claudette just on the account that they keep hitting texas.. and no more juans because they always hit land.
back here in.. june? may?
HF 1837z29march
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NNE
Unregistered
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Thanks - yes, this does look suspiciously like a previous S.Hemi tropical storm in January. But now I must pose this question; if no one acknowledges that a tropical storm has formed, does it actually exist? 
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MoparMitch
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 28
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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If it looks like a Duck, walks like a Duck and quacks like a Duck, then it must be a Duck.
This was a tropical system (according to me) without a doubt. I think any agurements against this opinion can just look at the "video tape".
Actually, I am a little concerned as to what this may indicate for us when the season "officially" starts. Can hardly wait for Dr. Gray's forcast in a few days.
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MoparMitch
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 28
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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We may want to rest now, if what Gray is forcasting comes true.
Gray's April Forcast
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Thanks Mitch. I just got finished reading the forecast. I went and plotted Gray's Analog Years (1958, 1961, 1980 and 2001). What was suprising about all those years was the high number of western atlantic fish spinners. Now his analogs the last few years didn't have much in common with the tracks themselves, but it's always worth a look. In these years, there were one or two western FL panhandle hits, a couple of south Texas hits, some Central American and Mexican hits and some brushes with the NC Coast. /food for thought
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Hmmmm. 14/8/3. That's what I predicted back in December. One part of the forecast should put a bit of caution in the minds of Florida and East Coast residents this year:
"Long-term statistics show that, on average, the more active the overall Atlantic basin hurricane season is, the greater the probability of U.S. hurricane landfall. For example, landfall observations during the last 100 years show that a greater number of intense (Saffir-Simpson category 3-4-5) hurricanes strike the Florida and U.S. East Coast during years of (1) increased NTC and (2) above-average North Atlantic SSTA* conditions."
Of course, this doesn't mean the EC will see a hit, but there's a higher probability than usual.
The official start of the season is still a long way away, but it should prove to be a very interesting season if Gray et. al. verify.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
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Here is a response to a posting on another weather forum of which I'm a member.......keep in mind this guy is from Brazil I believe and his English isn't that good. He has also included some links. Be cautious...I haven't had time to check out the links yet.
Here is his posting:
Posted: Wed Apr 07, 2004 5:39 am Post subject:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
At first sorry about my english!! I´m from Curitiba-Brasil. I would like to say for you, that the "Catarina' (how they called de harricane) was a shame thing that happened in Brasil, not about the nature, but about our governament. They Knew about this and don´t want to tell te population. (sorry about my prepositions - grammar)
At the day 25 and 26 of march they told that the winds could be at 50 km/hr. And just on the saturday they knew and told that was 150 km/hr.
Who is nasa, or some organization expirience in this things to know more then brasilians??!!!///?
I lost a friend, he was a fishing man, with a big boat, it was 6 people there. In his boat "Valio 2" 2 people died. 3 were save e he is lost.
They were in a long distance and when the organization responsable telled then about the catarina and the winds, they tried to get in the coast as soon as possible, but they can not get. the eye get them.
the 2 of died on was scare and hid in the boat and the other one when was jumping in the water got "prendeu-se" in the boat.
3 were safe and my friend is lost, because the inrresponsability of the brasilian governament. Now, he probably died, lost in the atlantic ocean.
The scanning of the brasilian marine "navy" for the lost people in the ocean was so good that our weathers organization!!!!!
this is just a part of the history, there to much [stuff] about the situation
And the news said diferent informations.
if you guys want to know more information there is some sites:
www.defesacivil.rs.gov.br
www.com5dn.mar.mil.br-----------go in salvamar
www.globo.com -------write ciclone or furacao catarina
www.epoca.com.br
www.clicrbs.com.br
www.guianews.com.br
www.estadao.com.br
to search use the words: furacao or ciclone catarina
i am a week searching in the internet all kind of information about.
i telled the case just because we are human, i do not care if you are american ou japonese, we are human.
and the catarina did not kill nobody, who killed was the governament.
more informations write me. e-mail: pedronatale@yahoo.com.br
If you guys did not like what i wrote sorry, but this is the reality, and the brasil politic about weather storms. take care if you are in brasil.
**************************************************************************
Interesting to hear some testimony without political or media influence.
Another note:
The Hurricane Conference is in Orlando this year. My schedule has not allowed me to attend but I have friends that have. If there is anything that is worth sharing I will certainly share. Until then....
"Watch the sky...it tells more of a story than you think..."
"Follow the clouds...."
Rick
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LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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In case anyone is interested, and wants to compare a forecast with Gray's, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) just issued their April 6th forecast. They are again sticking with earlier predictions that we will see an above average season:
April 2004
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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