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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: LI should be clear this year...
      #14758 - Tue Jun 01 2004 08:17 PM

Phil how was that Bob experience in 91 a cat 3 cane riding the east coast? You up there in LI dont see so many tropical systems right?

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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LI Phil
User


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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
For Jim & Luis
      #14759 - Tue Jun 01 2004 09:05 PM

Floyd was but a mere shell of himself when he arrived...told this story before, but for the newer members: Met Jim Cantore at Point Lookout (near Jones Beach) during Floyd. Pretty cool...my brush with greatness. We got almost no rain but the wind was blowing the sand pretty hard. After each live shot, JC would go back into his trailer...but not after taking a good 10 minutes to chat it up with all the weather loonies who had gathered to see the man. Real nice guy. Took some 14 year old kid aside and talked with him and his dad for a good 10 minutes. The kid had the same anamometer as Cantore! Only the kid's was measuring 50+ MPH while JC's was only registering in the 30s! (What's up with that). Anyhoo, that was Floyd for me.

As for Bob in '91, I was the only one in my office to go to work, so the whole day I looked out at the wind and rain. Neither of which was too bad. Way out east, where I was not, it was much worse. Bob just clipped the eastern end of LI, so NE got it pretty bad.

I won't go into Gloria, but lets suffice it to say that if a female storm heads my way, I may be headed the other (no offense to the ladies on this site).

Finally, finally, finally, I took the plunge and got Accuweather Pro. Man are there a lot of features, some of which I don't quite even understand. But I had to get Joe B. Almost signed up for Accuweather Premium but that doesn't include Joe. Good thing I read the differences between the two before buying. Hope it lives up the the hype.

So along with Steve, if anyone wants to know what Joe has to say, I can paraphrase or repost small portions for the viewing audience. He was terse (if that term can actually apply to Joe) today, and here's a snippet:

"But that ridge means business and I don't have any changes as to how the next ten days evolve with that. The ridge fights off the trof and a split develops that leaves a subtropical trof over the Gulf near 90 west that may back next week. This opens up the Gulf to a deep southeast flow of rich, warm air from South America and the western Caribbean, and this is something that will have to be watched for possible tropical troubles, if not with some storm, then with at least the influx of moist, unstable air for non-frontal produced thunderstorms."

So, great people of the south, get ready for some fun next week.

Cheers & Peace,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: For Jim & Luis
      #14760 - Tue Jun 01 2004 09:27 PM

It's worth my $0.48/day to watch the streaming videos (Long Ranger and Tropical Update) for a few months. Joe does go ape-stuff too often, but he sniffs out stuff 2-3 weeks ahead of almost any other source. An addendum to what Phil posted, Joe did a lot of pimping of 1998 this year. Many may remember the Gulf hits that year. We got banding from Frances, wind from Georges, nothing from Hermine which passed directly overhead (convection was east of Mobile Bay), Earl, and Charlie (and of course Mitch down in Central America). His thinking is that the water temperature profiles are most similar with that year "a big Gulf year."

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Spike
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 221
Loc: Central, Florida
Re: For Jim & Luis
      #14761 - Tue Jun 01 2004 09:52 PM

We can only wait and see what this new season of storms will bring us.

--------------------
Patrick
God Bless America
Be proud of your Country!


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: For Jim & Luis
      #14768 - Wed Jun 02 2004 12:11 AM

Just popping in with a quick hello to everyone. Good to see all the old faves are back and posting. I've been off chasing tornadoes (on-line of course ) the last few weeks, but as the season heats up, I look forward to spending it with the CFHC gang as usual.

This has to be the season that Steve stops hogging all the action and sends a storm or two our way. No Andrew's thank-you-very-much, but another Erin from '95 would be fun...


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: For Jim & Luis
      #14769 - Wed Jun 02 2004 12:12 AM

Greetings from NE FL for the new season. Great to see alot of the names from seasons past ( what's up, Frank P.!!), and I'm sure more will start peeking in.

Just a note for anyone who want's a safe place to stay in a hurricane..... just move to Jacksonville. We are now on our 40th year since our last direct hit, Dora 64'. We have put a big bullseye in our backyard; we're hosting the Super Bowl this year. Let's see if that's a good thing.......

My prediction for the season: 13-8-4.

After weeks that seemed to strech into months, we got afternoon thunderstorms here today, the first of the summer. The grass already looks greener ( and taller).

OK. I'm ready to start trashing the GFDL now.


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LI Phil
User


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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Did Steve really win?
      #14770 - Wed Jun 02 2004 12:21 AM

Just watched Joe B's tropical weather update...he mentioned that a Netherlands weather service was stating that (I'm paraphrasing here) "the remnants of the tropical storm that affected Hispaniola are now affecting Holland". Now, if NWS/NOAA/NHC doesn't classify it as a TS, then I guess it's not, but it's not just Joe B who felt last weeks system met TS parameters.

Since I'm still banking on 6/14 for our first named TS, I'm not ready to concede yet....

But, NHC may yet call this system Alex. Of course, for the 2,000+ dead it really doesn't matter where they classify it or not, but I'm more than willing to give it the benefit of a doubt.

In the event it remains nameless, well, I guess I can only hope for something in the gulf next weekend. But I'll be the first to tip my cap to Steve and say "he won" on this one.

Cheers & Peace

LIP

Oh yeah, as long as the formerly quiet posters are checking in, one by one, two shouts out: Colleen & Shawn. Where are you guys? Be safe and sound!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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DustDuchess
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 28
Loc: Polk County Florida
Re: Did Steve really win?
      #14772 - Wed Jun 02 2004 04:03 AM

Lets hope for a less destructive but wet storm in the coming week. I will put up with a two hour power outage say at 5:00 pm during rush hour traffic in Downtown anywhere, Just so long as it is wet, I have grass seeds that think they heard a funeral march when I planted them.

--------------------
Good or bad, weather is all there is.


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James88
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Did Steve really win?
      #14773 - Wed Jun 02 2004 07:29 AM

Anyone notice the currently well organised area of disturbed weather just coming off the coast of Africa? Probably still far too early for any development, but it won't be that long until conditions are right to support tropical development.

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JustMe
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: Did Steve really win?
      #14774 - Wed Jun 02 2004 11:23 AM

HI Frank P was nice to see you back this year. We had the discussion last year re Camille. I too saw Betsy come across Mississippi and Louisana. I am ready this year as well. Will be interesting to say the least.. Been sharpening my pencils ... May do some serious tracking this year if all the pieces come together. my numbers are 11-5-3 ... Maybe should be higher but we will see. No suprises this year with an April storm .. I still belive June 29 will be our first one. Anyone know why the Atlantic is getting cooler now? ? Will that affect our storm season?

Have a great day all

--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


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James88
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Did Steve really win?
      #14775 - Wed Jun 02 2004 12:03 PM

I didn't notice the Atlantic cooling. I thought it was on a warming trend. At least that's what this satellite loop has been telling me. Where are you looking?

Sea temperatures loop


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
The Atlantic is cooling?
      #14776 - Wed Jun 02 2004 12:40 PM

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTIS/US058VMET-GIFwxg.OTIS.glbl_sstanomaly.gif

This anomaly map shows some cooling in the eastern atlantic but overall I dont think it is nothing out of the ordinary to see fluctuations up and down but if you see a trend one way or another then more attention has to be payed.For example the GOM was blue a few weeks ago but has started as the grafic shows to warm up.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Volusia Mike
Unregistered




Re: The Atlantic is cooling?
      #14777 - Wed Jun 02 2004 01:27 PM

Good info Cyclone... Water temps along the beach in the Daytona area dropped this weekend (74 last weekend, 70 this weekend) apparently due to more of the upwelling we experienced last year.

Michael


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LI Phil
User


Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
The African Wave Train
      #14778 - Wed Jun 02 2004 02:15 PM

Take a look at this satellite pic . Notice how the clouds make a clear path right across South America and then up towards the gulf. Joe B. pointed this out and believes that some of the african waves will eventually make it all the way to the gulf with the potential for tropical mischief. It's really quite a remarkable graphic.

LIP

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Near term stuff...
      #14779 - Wed Jun 02 2004 02:54 PM

Nothing much going on right now. We're under an upper impulse with a nice "S" structure to it. Joe B put out a headsup for a potential rogue storm forming off of SC by Saturday night. Could be. He's not convinced, but raised the possibility. He thinks the system will die off a little today but then burst back toward the end of the week. You can see it pretty good in LI Phil's sat photo above.

Water continues to warm in the Gulf and off the SE Coast relative to averages. SOI's been positive for all but one of the last 30 days (when it was -0.20). That should cut off any near-term warm impulses migrating eastward across the southern Pacific. NRL is showing two invests (93E for the EPAC and 91W in the WPAC west of the Philipines).

NRL Home Page

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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LI Phil
User


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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Near term stuff...
      #14780 - Wed Jun 02 2004 02:56 PM

Just to add a quick note to what Steve posted...Joe thinks the EPAC invest will develop into Blas (what the h--- kind of name is that?), which in turn he feels will lead to some possible tropical development in the GOM around June 10. For all in the Gulf, you need to be watching for this.

LIP

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Near term stuff...
      #14781 - Wed Jun 02 2004 03:10 PM

That invest does seem to be getting a little better organised, so perhaps it will become Blas (and I have to agree with you Phil - that is one weird name). Now we just have to wait and see whether Joe's theory pans out.

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WxGal
Registered User


Reged:
Posts: 4
Hey All!
      #14782 - Wed Jun 02 2004 04:21 PM

Well, it's that time of year again. Ya know, where we sit back, forecast the heck out of storms, argue about when the storm will turn, sometimes call each other names but mostly enjoy the heck out of each other.

Since I have a new ISP I don't think my posts will be as high as last time, but that doesn't matter because whether or not I'm a "guru" or a "verified user" I'm still just a novice.

The flare-up near Acapulco looks like it's getting a bit better organized. So, we'll all have something to practice with while we wait for some blob to try and form in our neck of the woods.

As I am typing this, they just did a Emergency Broadcast Test which nearly caused me to go into cardiac arrest. This was not a good time for me.

Okay, enough out of me. I would really like to see some rain. It's hotter than Hades here and the blue skies are getting just plain boring.

Frank P.: Glad to see they let you out again this year. You must have been good.

Colleen

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Jun 02 2004 09:11 PM)


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LI Phil
User


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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Colleen, now known as WxGal
      #14783 - Wed Jun 02 2004 04:32 PM

Shout out to Colleen, knew it wouldn't take you long to check back in

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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lois
Unregistered




sorry phil.. i dont see it
      #14784 - Wed Jun 02 2004 04:42 PM

dont see that moisture trail.. do think its possible if some wave like the one that is still out there or later ones make it into the gulf they *could* make it up into the gulf later

i think joe is dreaming of camille

you know who here

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Jun 02 2004 09:13 PM)


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