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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Just Checking In!!!
      #14785 - Wed Jun 02 2004 05:02 PM

That is weird that Colleen decided to change to a different name because I wanted to do the same. So I decided to use SoonerShawn in honor of my beloved Oklahoma Sooners. At least the SW Caribbean is giving us something to look at for the first few days of the season. Glad to see all the regulars checking in and would like to send a special welcome to the newbies. I hope we will have much to talk about this season concerning the tropics but that we won't have to talk about the loss of lives and property.


ShawnS

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Jun 02 2004 09:15 PM)


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LI Phil
User


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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Possible System
      #14786 - Wed Jun 02 2004 05:26 PM

This comes from Accuweather and was probably contrubuted in part by JB:

"One place to watch for possible development is the southeast coast of the U.S. later in the week. A disturbance tracking along an old frontal boundary across the southern states will fire up strong thunderstorms over land; it is possible that this system exits off the Southeast coast, and becomes an organized system, once it gets over the relatively warm waters for this time of the year."

Shout out to Shawn...knew you & Colleen would be back!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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summercyclone
Unregistered




Re: Possible System
      #14787 - Wed Jun 02 2004 06:10 PM

Nice little MCS spin off is moving over the Ms. River mouth now....could Joe's spin up be in the Gulf instead??

Tornadoes in Sumter and Citrus counties--some damage in Citrus. I guess it really IS summer!

sc


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James88
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Possible System
      #14788 - Wed Jun 02 2004 06:14 PM

That system seems to be moving fairly fast - perhaps too fast for tropical development, but you never know.

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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 90
Re: The 2004 Hurricane Season Starts Today
      #14789 - Wed Jun 02 2004 08:01 PM

Greetings all! I have moved from inland Mobile to the mouth of Dog River, and am living on a beautiful trawler....well, somewhat.

anyhoo, with that comes an awareness that all I own can be destroyed. I will be looking with earnestness this year.

Read an interesting thread on global warming in the latest Rolling Stone magazine. IT is definitely real. Wondering when a real noticeable uptick in hurricane intensity and amounts will be blamed on it.

Enjoy this site and look forward to an interesting year...

Rick


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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: The 2004 Hurricane Season Starts Today
      #14790 - Wed Jun 02 2004 08:03 PM

Welcome back Rick!

So, now you DON'T want that CAT V sent towards Mobile?

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
Weather Master


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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: The 2004 Hurricane Season Starts Today
      #14791 - Wed Jun 02 2004 08:13 PM

Probably a bit off topic, but I was looking at information about the possible El Nino development later this year, and I came across something interesting. Apparently, the SSTs off the coast of South Africa for April are bearing a reasonably strong similarity to those of April 1982. The 1982-83 El Nino was pretty bad, as there were only 5 named storms in '82 and 4 in '83. Of course it's too early to form any definite predictions, but it makes you wonder - will much be going on in 2005?

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Lois
Unregistered




Interesting wave in Atlantic.. stubborn
      #14792 - Wed Jun 02 2004 08:16 PM

Hate to break up this love fest on the Gulf Coast and all but really think that the wave warrants a little attention. It's made it across as an entity and hung in there. Looking good and interesting today ...especially if you zoom it in and stop it on the last few frames. Not the most favorable environment its headed into but still... definitely fun watching.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html


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James88
Weather Master


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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Interesting wave in Atlantic.. stubborn
      #14793 - Wed Jun 02 2004 08:21 PM

Your right - it's obviously quite tenacious and has done well to last so long for it being early June. Does anyone think that it could develop into something when (and if) it moves into a more favourable environment?

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HanKFranK
User


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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
tick tick tick tick...
      #14794 - Wed Jun 02 2004 09:31 PM

nothing on the horizon. expect the eastpac invest won't have time to do any developing (coast proximity+36hrs to cooler water=little/no development). upper trough in the far western atlantic down into the western caribbean is going to keep things capped down there for the next few days. fairly energetic wave nearing 50w has no chance for this same reason.. another wave far to the east emerging indicates only that the ITCZ is undergoing its normal evolution this time of year.. fairly energetic waves that collapse once offshore except far to the south. since 2000 there have been a few june/july depressions out there.. claudette formed closer in last year, and danny was in the subtropics... too early at this point.
i see the feature jb is eyeballing to move off the se over the weekend. doubt it will amount to much.. if it tries to bomb it will go extratropical.. upper trough will see to that.
gfs is showing a divergent area in the western caribbean early next week as the trough reorients. low-mid level ridging is strong by that point.. should be shoving any disturbed weather westward by that point. about a week from now the nw caribbean/gulf should finally start becoming more favorable for development. ridging should be locking back in in the eastern u.s. by then... heat is down a notch to normal here in the carolinas right now.. the anomalous heat of may should be closer to normal for the next couple of weeks.
thats my take right now anyhow.
hey to everybody. might be a while before we get anything, but we'll manage in the meantime.
HF 2130z02june


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WxGal
Registered User


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Posts: 4
Re: Colleen, now known as WxGal
      #14795 - Wed Jun 02 2004 09:48 PM

Hey guys....I honestly forgot what my name was last year, LOL!

I better be careful what I wish for...about 3pm we had a storm hit us and boy was it a boomer!


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James88
Weather Master


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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: tick tick tick tick...
      #14796 - Wed Jun 02 2004 10:00 PM

Seems that we can't expect much in the tropics for now, but the season has begun, so something could happen in the next couple of weeks. Anyway, having to wait makes it all the more better and interesting when Alex does form

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LI Phil
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Hey Ed...a new forum maybe?
      #14797 - Wed Jun 02 2004 11:32 PM

Hey Ed,

Since many of us have already submitted our "numbers" for the season and a few have called for where Alex will form and when, is there any way you can create a new forum which simply lists everyone's numbers and first storm dates? I think C-eye did that over on S2K, so it might work well here too. Thanks in advance.

LIP

PS I think I finally found an avatar that doesn't mess up everybody's screens

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Hey Ed...a new forum maybe? no
      #14798 - Wed Jun 02 2004 11:37 PM

Personally I dont think its a good idea.. I think maybe if people want they can put their guess in their profile so anyone can click on it ..if anyone cares.

Or if anyone wants they can keep a list for themself and let us know who won at the end of the season.

I only guessed numbers..not first storm, because i dont want to.

And, personally I dont want this forum to be like 2k.. not sure who was first but think this one was.. and this board doesnt have to copy other boards. Its just fine.

Been to 2k and its all cute and child like if you ask me.. looks like some Disney version for Dungeon and Dragon kids who are holding on to the dream. Lots of good posters, same posters that post everywhere.. how many boards can you post on at one time?

And... seems to me its wrong to say "well they do it there" cause ..well... this isn't there, its here.

And, personally I like here or I'd be there.

Just my opinon Bobbi

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: Hey Ed...a new forum maybe?
      #14799 - Wed Jun 02 2004 11:39 PM

Yes Phil that would be a good idea here and as you said I made a poll over there where more than 50 members are participating posting their forecast numbers and they are at the end trying to win a prize and did another poll asking when and where Alex will form.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3

Edited by Cycloneye (Wed Jun 02 2004 11:41 PM)


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LI Phil
User


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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Hey Ed...a new forum maybe?
      #14800 - Wed Jun 02 2004 11:49 PM

Hey Luis/C-Eye. I personally think your site was almost as good as this one...even though I couldn't logon.

Bobbi...what's wrong with keeping dibs on our posters' numbers? It's all in fun anyway. I just think that when all is said and done, it would be nice to have a "one click access" to those who put their (cigarette) bu--s on the line. So what if you or I are wrong...

Hey, it's up to Ed, (or John or Mike) to do it. Just personally think it's a neat idea.

Ed...the ball is in your court

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Is the NHC site having problems?
      #14801 - Thu Jun 03 2004 01:05 AM

I am having some problems to access their site in the past few days but tonight they are having I think more problems as the evening discussion has not comed out as of 9:00 Pm EDT.Does anyone has had some problems accessing their site in recent days?

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Finally, South Florida rains are near!
      #14803 - Thu Jun 03 2004 01:12 AM

Nice to finally look to the west and see some T-Storm build ups over the glades, but still not a drop at the coast, still hoping and waiting to see if the SW flow will push some over the coast during the next few days.
Some of the local mets in Miami are saying that in past years when South Florida had a dry May, that corelates to a good chance of a hurricane hit on the Fl southest coast for later in the season, example 1992: Andrew.( just one ex.)
I personally don't see the direct connection between dry May's and hurricane hits, could just be coincidence, but if someone here on this forum has a scientific explanation, your comments will be well appreciated.

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Spike
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 221
Loc: Central, Florida
Re: Finally, South Florida rains are near!
      #14804 - Thu Jun 03 2004 01:18 AM

Yea, its starting to get exciting

--------------------
Patrick
God Bless America
Be proud of your Country!


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LI Phil
User


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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
C-Eye takin' the high road
      #14805 - Thu Jun 03 2004 01:22 AM

Cyclone, not trying to start a war or anything, but...

I have to admire you for taking the high road. If anyone called my website (not that I have one) "juvenile" with those "dungeons & dragons" references... well, I'd be a tad miffed.

Kudos to you for ignoring it.

Lois/Bobbi -- I'm not trying to dis you with these comments. I totaally respect your thoughts & opinions...just thought C-eye's compilations were pretty cool.

We don't need any con-tro-versies this early in the season...

PEACE!

LIP

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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