Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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The wave old 96L to the east of Puerto Rico is not only running into dry air also wind shear, the convection is most likely from afternoon heating. As for development would wait to see if holds over night and how it looks after or at Puerto Rico.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Sorry for typo should have said old 95L.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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1 Late July
5 August
6 September
3 October 
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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Maybe its me, but the system in the Gulf seems to have a vortex to the north of the Yucatan--don't thing that it is all impossible for development.
Historical note--several storms in recent years have developed in the gulf due to wave interaction with an upper low:
Hermine, 9-17-98
Harvey, 9-19-99
Beryl, 8-13-00
Allison, 6-5-01
Barry, 6-5-01
Bill, 6-29-03
it is also interesting to note that since 1967 (when satellite surveillance wasnt limited to one or two images a day) there has never been a year with no depressions before August
only 1967, 1972, 1982, 1993, and 2000 went through July without a depression
also, in case anyone is interested, the years with no June depression are:
1969, 1971, 1978, 1980, 1983, 1985, 1988, 1990, 1998, 2002, and this year
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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little question:
When will Alex form, when will it form, and what will it form from?
my guess: 7-26, East Atlantic, Tropical Wave
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Joe1954,
I see you're calling 15 named storms. Wanna take a crack at TS/HUR/MAJ?
Bugs,
I won't say it's 100% against development for the Yucatan mess, but probably 99%. It will be near the Tex/Mex border sometime tomorrow, so there's probably not enough time for anything to develop. It WILL, however, be a huge rainmaker.
I think we're all so anxious for a first storm that we're all jumping on every bit of disturbed weather hoping it's "the one".
While it certainly wouldn't be unprecedented not to have a named storm by August, it wouldn't necessarily mean a slow season, as Rob pointed out earlier. If the flip noted by Steve and Rob (and JoeB) does happen as discussed, we may not have much activity until mid-August...but then...BAM.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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The wave is moving to fast for anything to develop, by tomorrow it will be making land fall in Texas, maybe if had 2 or 3 days to get it's act together or this was in Sept. Then would say had a chance.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Hey Long island:
I'll take a crack at it..
1 TS in July
3 TS/2 Hurr in August
1 TS/3 Hurr/2 Major Hurr in Sept
2 Hurri/1 Major Hurr in Oct
Badly needed rest in November!!
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Joe1954,
So that's 15/10/3? Wow...10 hurricanes. As long as they spin the fishes that's fine with me.
Bugs,
I already made my (incorrect) guess for Alex, but if you're giving me another shot, I'll have to run with my earlier call on 95L. I'll say west carib 7/12 or GOM 7/13.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Phil:
Old 95L is moving WNW if anything would hit Florida or up the east coast, The wind shear is still strong, reason why moving WNW as of now plus dry air. It would be a long shot.
Dave
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anonymous
Unregistered
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Living nearby in Stuart , I agree. I have not seen this dry a period during June and July in 15 years, nor can I remember the last time we had a normal summer rain as year after year it is mostly dry with brief heavy rain periods to bring the average up . We are past 50 years since the last major hurricane in our area.
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LONNY307
Unregistered
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It seems from the Tropical Atlantic Discussion that wants the SAL calms down we could be in business. LOL
TROPICAL ATLC...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS POSITIONED WELL N OF THE AREA WITH
DEEP ELY FLOW AND GENERALLY LOW SHEAR VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE
TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. HOWEVER...VERY DRY/STABLE AIR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER CONTINUE TO RESTRICT TSTM
ACTIVITY. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT PERTURBATION IS A WEAK INVERTED
UPPER TROUGH NOTED ALONG 35W. PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS ARE
BELOW AVERAGE WITH WEAKER TRADES THAN AVERAGE AS WELL. 
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JasonM603
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 24
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Quote:
It seems from the Tropical Atlantic Discussion that wants the SAL calms down we could be in business. LOL
TROPICAL ATLC...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS POSITIONED WELL N OF THE AREA WITH
DEEP ELY FLOW AND GENERALLY LOW SHEAR VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE
TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. HOWEVER...VERY DRY/STABLE AIR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER CONTINUE TO RESTRICT TSTM
ACTIVITY. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT PERTURBATION IS A WEAK INVERTED
UPPER TROUGH NOTED ALONG 35W. PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS ARE
BELOW AVERAGE WITH WEAKER TRADES THAN AVERAGE AS WELL.
Yep...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Epac_hurr/hgt_anom_1000_10d.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/sal-atl.html
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Independent Wx
Seasonal Forecast
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