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Western Gulf and NW Caribbean increasingly favored for development potential over the next week or so.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 290 (Idalia) , Major: 290 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 290 (Idalia) Major: 290 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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HanKFranK
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97L totters along [Re: Unregistered User]
      #16521 - Wed Jul 21 2004 10:48 PM

really good burst today from 97L. banding is visible in the low cloud field sw of the convection.. maybe not at the surface, but quite possibly. again the NHC has those contradictory statements: no evidence of closed surface circulation, then specific evidence (inconclusive scatterometer data) in the discussion.. and of course the appearance on visible.
if we do get development it will more than likely spend days one and two outrunning its convection and bursting as it tries to develop a solid CDO. i do suspect that we will have a tropical storm in two days time near western cuba. tropical models have it going west, which is fine as long as it stays extremely weak or doesn't develop. but i'd go two out of three that it does, and that it will be in the gulf by the weekend. from there it's a toss-up. until the globals get a realistic vestige of a tropical system on the charts then they are out to pasture. mean ridge strength in the eastern u.s. should be fluctuating, so i'll at least go with a snaking path.
rest of the basin.. ITCZ appearance near 40w (convergence paired with weak winds aloft paired with some wave action) has me thinking another bubble of activity could break off in the next day or two. no need for hawkish vigilance, just something to keep an eye out for.
nothing interesting going on with the trough jammed deep in the subtropics near/off the east coast. it isn't splitting cleanly, so there should be a fairly chaotic pattern out there next few days.. north of 97L, but potentially harboring its own invest if things happen just right.
aside from that celia is near hurricane strength, 50-50 it gets there in the next few hours before the california current claims another lemminglike eastpac TC victim. celia perhaps indicates that another system may try to form in the atlantic early next week.
something i've noticed. haven't made a huge study of when atlantic systems form on the MJO ebb and flow, though qualitatively noted that many form while MJO is switching to positive. as we are currently in such a state... hmm.
could comment on the posts i've seen today.. yeah, i'll say 'em.
bobbi stick to visibles for weak systems. wv imagery, as wxman007 noted, resolves the middle-upper troposphere. wv is great for spotting shear maxes, vortmaxes in upper troughs, subsidence (and a regular psychedelic zombie show when colorized).... but not useful for spotting low level features (like say a partially exposed incipient t.d.)
steve, you da man. since you're posting regularly today i guess it's about time for alex.
varmint keep cool, ignore the bozos. you do a decent job, when you aren't spazzing. don't think your forecasts today will pan out.. coup if 97L disintegrates, though.
LI phil keep the moderator sledge-o-matic handy. make gallagher proud. season will likely be christened this week.
'nuff wheel spinning, then. onward.
HF 2248z21july


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LI Phil
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HF-like a breath of fresh air [Re: HanKFranK]
      #16523 - Wed Jul 21 2004 11:00 PM

Good obs, HF, knew you'd be posting sometime this e'en. Poor bugs won't have access to a computer for the next three days so he can't keep killing this system. He may be right, although seems the whole board is agin him.

You seeing a potential invest where? Of the SE coast? Wasn't sure to where you were referring.

Celia, go check the other basins board...she's up to 70 MPH and according to James, expected to strengthen (I didn't read the TWD), but Dvorak #s 4.0/4.0 last pass.

What else...Bobbi loves her WV loops, let her have 'em. Steve is DA MAN (as are Rob Mann & Jason Moreland). Also good to see JK adding his $.02. Already commented on Bugs, and moi, I'm no Pete Gabriel fan, but I kicked the habit, shed my skin...this is the new stuff.

Peace out,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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Tropics Guy
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Re: 97L totters along [Re: HanKFranK]
      #16524 - Wed Jul 21 2004 11:28 PM

The circulation center shows up pretty nicely along with banding in this fading visible floater shot. The center appears to be around 16N 72W (approx). Waiting for the re-firing mode to begin soon.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/VIS/20.jpg

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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JasonM603
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Evening Discussion [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #16525 - Thu Jul 22 2004 12:31 AM

Note: Our forecast products are unofficial. Please read our disclaimer.

IWIC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - 21 July 2004 - 8:30 PM EDT

Convection associated with the tropical wave traversing the central Caribbean Sea is beginning to dissipate this evening. Convection along the wave axis has typically decreased in the evenings, which is a natural part of the diurnal cycle of tropical cyclones. The latest SAB estimate remained at 1.5, but that estimate will likely drop slightly until convection begins to fire once again. The upper level low in the western Atlantic still hasn't lifted its grip from the wave. Moderate westerly shear is apparent. GHCC visible satellite imagery revealed a weak low level circulation pushing west, ahead of the core of convection earlier this afternoon. Over the past few hours, that circulation has dissipated and only the mid-level circulation to the east remains. The mid-level circulation will be the main area of interest over the next few days.

The upper trough conjoined with the western Atlantic upper level low is stretched across the northern Caribbean Sea. While the trough is shearing the wave to some extent, it is still creating a lot of divergence in the central and eastern Caribbean, which is still aiding in the development of nocturnal thunderstorms. Over the next 36-48 hours, the wave will seperate itself from the trough. Ridging aloft will allow for upper level winds in the western Caribbean to become more condusive for tropical development. However, we must also remember that sinking air is also playing a big roll in keeping the wave in check. As the disturbance moves away from the trough, it will have to do develop more at the surface in order to sustain convection on its own. We may not see a rapid explosion of thunderstorms as we've observed over recent days. However, persistent development would be a much better indication of tropical cyclone formation. Slow development is still possible over the next 72 hours. Another reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the wave tomorrow morning.

The forecast path of the wave is starting to become a bit clearer. The tropical model consensus is for the wave to make landfall along the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula in approximately 72 hours. While it is still difficult to determine where the global models take our system, the majority of the models do show signs of an expected westward track. For example, the latest ECMWF and UKMET runs show faint signs of a weak area of low pressure passing through the Yucatan peninsula in a few days. These are all perfectly reasonable forecasts. As mentioned in the previous discussion, a mid to upper level ridge is in place over southern Florida and the Bahamas. This ridge is causing a strong east to west flow over the western Caribbean. I see no reason to believe that the wave will be able to take a more northerly track through the Yucatan Channel. Even if the wave were to develop into a tropical depression or storm within the next 48 hours, it will still be steered by the mid to upper level high.

What could end up being the million dollar question, is whether or not the ridge will push far enough east by the time the disturbance moves into the central/western Gulf to turn more northerly. Going back to the UKMET and ECMWF, both models also show this scenario. This is well beyond the predictable forecast range and any movement beyond the time it threatens the Yucatan is unclear.

--------------------
Independent Wx

Seasonal Forecast


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LoisCane
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What happened with the plane... want [Re: HanKFranK]
      #16526 - Thu Jul 22 2004 01:06 AM

What happened with the plane..huh? Want to know.

Yes..waiting for the fire up. Not a good sign that there was so little convection on the visible that you could see the center but nice to see it ..regardless.

Good writing by Jason/Rob.. are you guys related? Just wondering..not sure why I thought to ask..

Yes.. leave me my water vapor loops and send me my dreams

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Old Sailor
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Re: Evening Discussion [Re: JasonM603]
      #16527 - Thu Jul 22 2004 01:24 AM

Good basic report from Independent Weather, keep it in context.

Steve,
A affiché seul mes sensations sur 97L n'a pas lu le vôtre ni me faisait sait qui réponses à mon affichent.

Just Dave Old Sailor but do have some viking blood


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LI Phil
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Re: Evening Discussion [Re: Old Sailor]
      #16528 - Thu Jul 22 2004 01:33 AM

Vieux Marin, Êtes-vous la même personne que le "Old Swede" ; ? Détectez une polarisation créole là, non. Pardonnez mon mauvais français, seulement l'a pris pendant sept années.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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LI Phil
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97L En francais [Re: Old Sailor]
      #16529 - Thu Jul 22 2004 01:44 AM

"Old Sailor" ; L'annonce longue car we're à it..Do VOUS pensent 97L se développera en Alex ?


English only from now on, for the folks...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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JasonM603
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Re: What happened with the plane... want [Re: LoisCane]
      #16530 - Thu Jul 22 2004 01:51 AM

Quote:

What happened with the plane..huh? Want to know.

Yes..waiting for the fire up. Not a good sign that there was so little convection on the visible that you could see the center but nice to see it ..regardless.

Good writing by Jason/Rob.. are you guys related? Just wondering..not sure why I thought to ask..

Yes.. leave me my water vapor loops and send me my dreams




lol no relation whatsoever...You may be under the impression that some of the discussions are similar...but i've been writing the last 4/5 discussions and then things usually rotate. We discuss the tropics 7 days a week so we're always in basic agreement...but other than wx...no relation. It's a coordinated effort than began in 02.

--------------------
Independent Wx

Seasonal Forecast

Edited by JasonM603 (Thu Jul 22 2004 01:51 AM)


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Old Sailor
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Re: Evening Discussion [Re: LI Phil]
      #16531 - Thu Jul 22 2004 01:57 AM

No I am not the Old swede whoever he was. Phil, Still don't feel that 97L will do anything until it gets into the gulf. even then not sure you will have more than TD.

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LI Phil
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Not Our "Old Swede" [Re: Old Sailor]
      #16532 - Thu Jul 22 2004 02:05 AM

Didn't think so, your styles are quite different. Not sure Steve knows any rudimentiary french..which is (obviiously) what mine is.

I think we do get Alex, but not until Fri/Sat at the earliest.Maybe not at all, but, something to watch Thru the weekend.

In a way, you kind of remind me of Roy Hobbs ("The Natural"). " Feller, at you age you shouldn't be playing ball, you should think of retiring." Not to imply you would retire, but

"I came here to play baseball." I'll fill in the rest of the movie lines if anyone is interested

Jusqu'à une telle heure, j'attends votre réponse.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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LoisCane
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I want to know what happened to the plane.. [Re: LI Phil]
      #16533 - Thu Jul 22 2004 02:12 AM

Why does no one round here care? It's out of character for most of you.

I mean ..did it have a malfunction or not? What malfunctioned? The plane or the testing equiptment. Hope everyone's dropsondes are okay. I mean.. they rarely have malfuncions. Was it weather related or did someone lose it when they saw it fizzled again? Is everything okay?

Usually round here people know everything.

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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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LI Phil
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Re: I want to know what happened to the plane.. [Re: LoisCane]
      #16534 - Thu Jul 22 2004 02:17 AM

(my error - should have moved this - hit the wrong button)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Jul 22 2004 10:18 AM)


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JasonM603
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Re: I want to know what happened to the plane.. [Re: LoisCane]
      #16535 - Thu Jul 22 2004 02:18 AM

Quote:

Why does no one round here care? It's out of character for most of you.

I mean ..did it have a malfunction or not? What malfunctioned? The plane or the testing equiptment. Hope everyone's dropsondes are okay. I mean.. they rarely have malfuncions. Was it weather related or did someone lose it when they saw it fizzled again? Is everything okay?

Usually round here people know everything.




There hasn't been any news posted about it. But i'm sure this will not affect recon missions in the future. I do recall 1-2 problems last year too.

--------------------
Independent Wx

Seasonal Forecast


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Colleen A.
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Re: I want to know what happened to the plane.. [Re: LoisCane]
      #16536 - Thu Jul 22 2004 04:34 AM

It was posted on one of the previous pages (don't remember which one) that it had to return because of mechanical problems, but there was not any specific information given out about what those problems were.
Hope that helps!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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James88
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Another day another flare up [Re: Colleen A.]
      #16538 - Thu Jul 22 2004 08:48 AM

Looks like 97L is trying to refire some convection this morning. It wil probably look a little better in a few hours, when the daytime heat arrives. I have to say it does look increasingly likely that the wave will plow into the Yucatan, but is too early to be completely sure. Anyway, didn't Bill go the same way last year before it got classified?

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LoisCane
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What if it is really GONE? [Re: James88]
      #16539 - Thu Jul 22 2004 11:58 AM



Ok...I mean.. what if?

So... it might be refiring. It might.

Heavy torrential rains over passage between Haiti and Cuba and possibly over Cuba but I went to bed. I mean sometimes you just go to go to bed and say "whatever"

It's a wave.. its not a depression, its not a storm..doesn't even have an name. But, we obsess because we can and its there.

Hard to find today..oh look... I found it.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html
If its not visible there it ain't visible anywhere..whew, was worried...

High should be building in and it should be moving into better territory for expansion and development.. but things don't always go like they should and so...

"If it doesnt work out ...well that's the just the way it goes"

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Steve
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Re: What if it is really GONE? [Re: LoisCane]
      #16542 - Thu Jul 22 2004 01:54 PM

>>Just Dave Old Sailor but do have some viking blood

Pardon, monsieur. I (Je) thought you were Old Swede come back as Old Sailor. He and I had our run ins, but it's all good. I've got a bit of the old Viking in me as well. J'parle Francais un peu de seulment or I speak French only a little. But I can actually converse a bit in it when required.
------------------------------------------------
As for 97L, like Bobbi said, "if it doesn't work out, well that's just the way it goes." As of right now (sans any analysis), I'd bet it becomes part of a deep tropical surge of moisture. We've seen that before - systems with potential that never quite got their act together though ended up dumping 4-5" of rain on somebody with a 15-20mph breeze. Like most of you, I'll take what I can get. It's hard to say how much life 97L's got left to it. It's been funneled through a 'chute' in the central Caribbean. My guess is that the axis is just west of the western tip of Jamaica, but your guess is as good as mine. Conditions are supposed to be somewhat favorable for development. But it's like turning the fire on a pot of water. If you don't add any ingredients, all you get is boiling water.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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bobbi
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deep surge of tropical moisture [Re: Steve]
      #16543 - Thu Jul 22 2004 02:23 PM

and that dear Steve is why we have a growing season in America.. why we have a breadbasket.. where most of the yearly rainfall comes from..

"I'd bet it becomes part of a deep tropical surge of moisture. We've seen that before - systems with potential that never quite got their act together though ended up dumping 4-5" of rain on somebody with a 15-20mph breeze"


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LI Phil
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What if it is really GONE? [Re: Steve]
      #16544 - Thu Jul 22 2004 02:41 PM

>>> Conditions are supposed to be somewhat favorable for development. But it's like turning the fire on a pot of water. If you don't add any ingredients, all you get is boiling water.

Well said, Steve. I can't really add much to the morning chat. 97L looking horrible...but still there and still moving west at 20 MPH, so it should get into a more favorable area for development.

On JBs tropical video, he showed a really interesting WV from yesterday and today, showing how much dry air 97L had to contend with over the past 24 hours. The two did battle...to a draw. Like Rocky vs. Apollo, they were both beaten to a pulp. However, we still don't know whether this is Rocky or Rocky II, in which Balboa climbs up off the canvas to claim the belt. Will 97L get back off the canvas? We will know by the weekend.

King TUTT also had a hand in the beat down of 97L. But it's survived and now moving into an area of ridging, so it should migrate west without much interference. Only question is if it can revive and regroup enough to gain TD status. JB feels it WILL get into the GOM and from there, it's a wait and see.

Cut me Mick

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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