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Western Gulf and NW Caribbean increasingly favored for development potential over the next week or so.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 290 (Idalia) , Major: 290 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 290 (Idalia) Major: 290 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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GR FLA
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BYE, BYE WAVE [Re: LI Phil]
      #16546 - Thu Jul 22 2004 03:00 PM

bye, bye wave. Looks terrible than ever, nothing there to see.

July comes and goes and no system will develop, oh well!!!

With nothing on the horizon, looks like a quiet end of July


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James88
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Re: What if it is really GONE? [Re: LI Phil]
      #16547 - Thu Jul 22 2004 03:00 PM

Strange how the wave stubbornly refuses to fizzle out when it is experiencing quite unfavourable conditions, and then when it reaches a more conducive environment for strengthening it falls apart. Still, as Phil said, it's a wait and see. Maybe the wave in the central Atlantic will become a player in a few days. It doesn't look like much now, but as it travels further west something may happen...

You get the idea that as more time elapses, the chances increase that Alex will be a formidable storm - probably a CV. Just a thought.

Edited by James88 (Thu Jul 22 2004 03:02 PM)


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DustDuchess
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Re: What if it is really GONE? [Re: LI Phil]
      #16548 - Thu Jul 22 2004 03:01 PM

Where did it Go? Is it going to re-emerge in a totally different location than we are currently watching? Hide and go seek with 97L?

--------------------
Good or bad, weather is all there is.


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joepub1
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Re: What if it is really GONE? [Re: DustDuchess]
      #16549 - Thu Jul 22 2004 03:33 PM

97L sure looks like it has too many problems to overcome at this point. It's dry, it's going too fast to catch it's breath, land looms ahead, and what convection that is firing out ahead of it is getting the cloud tops blasted off to the NW. If you try to stick a fork in it you may still get a twitch, but this wave is going to need a ton of luck to get going. Boy I was ready to call this one a TD at one point yesterday.

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bobbi
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looking horrible...but still there??? [Re: LI Phil]
      #16550 - Thu Jul 22 2004 03:33 PM

STill there? If you call that "still there" its "still there"

It's barely visible on the visible, you'd need a magnifying glass to find moisture.. no spycam in spyland could find it ..

Deep breath here... Phil... go get some lunch, listen to a tune, breathe deep and tell me later exactly how its "still there"

looks about like wispy clouds, maybe its in hibernation stage and going to come out like a lion fighting or a bear

seen any bears lately?
seen any convection.

Didnt see Bastardi's water vapor. Yes, he does do it well.. I like Cantore better but they are very similar in style and both good with the WV.

Not saying this can't or won't come back.. nah, never say never but well.. maybe it prefers adversity to an easy, simple life situation?

The wave needs a shrink guys.. that much is for sure.


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Rich B
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Re: looking horrible...but still there??? [Re: bobbi]
      #16551 - Thu Jul 22 2004 03:46 PM

Well guys,
it looks like 97L has all but gone. Next to no convective activity now, just some debris clouds left, and thats about all. Considering the environment is supposed to be favourable ahead of the remnant wave, i personally think that it will take quite something to get this one going again. Hard to beleive this was a well defined disturbance this time yesterday, but thats the way things go i guess

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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LI Phil
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Latest TWO says it all... [Re: Rich B]
      #16552 - Thu Jul 22 2004 03:52 PM

>>>SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.

So close...so very very close. Fought the good fight. Kept us all interested. I am now prepared to declare MY wave DOA.

Rabbit was right. And we all know how he hates being right.

Now it will take a heater, some smelling salts and a car battery to bring 97L back.

How many days to August 15th?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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DustDuchess
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Re: Latest TWO says it all... [Re: LI Phil]
      #16553 - Thu Jul 22 2004 04:01 PM

A Eulogy for the wave 97L is in order at this time:
It went to sleep in the great deep,
A smile on its face no tears shall we weep,
for if it arises and if we say "when"
It'll rise up with its face all a grin.

--------------------
Good or bad, weather is all there is.


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Anonymous
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Re: Latest TWO says it all... [Re: DustDuchess]
      #16554 - Thu Jul 22 2004 04:05 PM

Outstanding Colleen-- I love that.

sc


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ticka1
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Re: Latest TWO says it all... [Re: Anonymous]
      #16555 - Thu Jul 22 2004 04:23 PM

Stick a fork in it, its done. 97 Rest in peace.

--------------------
Join www.wildonweather.com/forum Message Board


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summercyclone
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Re: Meanwhile, points north [Re: ticka1]
      #16556 - Thu Jul 22 2004 04:59 PM

Vortex, upper left of pic.....

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

sc

looks like the energy went north....


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caneman
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Re: Meanwhile, points north [Re: summercyclone]
      #16557 - Thu Jul 22 2004 05:26 PM

I'm sorry but I don't see it. Do have to give Rabbit credit. Good job.

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bobbi
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give cords please, can't access it thru that way [Re: summercyclone]
      #16558 - Thu Jul 22 2004 05:29 PM

thanks

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LI Phil
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IWIC afternoon discussion [Re: bobbi]
      #16560 - Thu Jul 22 2004 05:38 PM

Gonna beat Rob & Jason to post...here's IWIC's afternoon discussion:

IWIC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - 22 July 2004 - 1:20 PM EDT

The tropical wave traversing the central Caribbean Sea has been devoid of any deep convection for about 18 hours. In fact, there are no more hints of a mid or low-level circulation either. Yesterday, we expected the wave to slowly intensify as it moved westward, though this is apparently not going to be the case. The explanation is quite simple, the wave had upper level support yesterday and today it does not. To put it an other way, there was an upper level low positioned just north of the system, which induced moderate shear aloft in the area. In turn, divergence increased, and the lead result of that was more lift and enhanced convection over the wave. Today, the wave has moved west of that upper level low and shear, so it has nothing else to sustain convection. Therefore, it is not surprising that we are not seeing any convective "blow-up".
----------------------------------------------------------------
Think we all (except for Bugsy) thought this would be something today.

PS> 97L has been taken down by NRL...so it is now OFFICIALLY dead.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Thu Jul 22 2004 05:43 PM)


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Steve
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Requiem on 97L [Re: LI Phil]
      #16561 - Thu Jul 22 2004 06:08 PM

Some convection is moving into the Yucatan strait (probably left over from the old LLC that emerged out on Tuesday). Some convection is just across 80W (probably left over from the old MLC). Most of the energy seems to have been usurped by the Surface Trof off the SE Coast. The rest of it isn't much. It's too bad because the way the setup in the Gulf is right now, there's a clear path for a tropical surge right at Louisiana. With an ULL diving SW through East Texas, the feed is around the eastern perimeter. I wouldn't be shocked to see some wave-spawned convection here Friday night or Saturday. As always, I'll take what I can get.

Had 97L become established, the Gulf was wide open for development. Except when under an Upper High, the Gulf rarely is this condusive for development in July. /Oh what might have been...

As Phil noted above, 97L and the dry air it was entering battled to a draw. Both lost out. There isn't much on the horizon for the next week to ten days. There are two very inocuous waves (one at 62W and the other around 45W). But that's it. Africa is still rolling along as is the Indian Monsoon. So far, nothing much has come out of it. However, the Atlantic Basin continues on with its climatological progression toward the Cape Verde season. NOAA says that in many respects, the basin is actually ahead of schedule. I guess we'll see.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Rob_M
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Re: IWIC afternoon discussion [Re: LI Phil]
      #16562 - Thu Jul 22 2004 06:11 PM

lol Phil...yeah I figured it was only a matter of time before our scoring streak ended. But the track is, or would have been, just as expected...westward rather than being picked up by the trough as some speculated could happen. Now this still doesn't change the prospects for the season (read below). And congratulations to Rabbit. You nailed this one.

BTW here's the whole discussion since Phil posted the first paragraph.


IWIC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - 22 July 2004 - 1:20 PM EDT

The tropical wave traversing the central Caribbean Sea has been devoid of any deep convection for about 18 hours. In fact, there are no more hints of a mid or low-level circulation either. Yesterday, we expected the wave to slowly intensify as it moved westward, though this is apparently not going to be the case. The explanation is quite simple, the wave had upper level support yesterday and today it does not. To put it an other way, there was an upper level low positioned just north of the system, which induced moderate shear aloft in the area. In turn, divergence increased, and the lead result of that was more lift and enhanced convection over the wave. Today, the wave has moved west of that upper level low and shear, so it has nothing else to sustain convection. Therefore, it is not surprising that we are not seeing any convective "blow-up".

The environment ahead of the wave actually still looks conducive. The favorable conditions will not mean much, however. If there was already a pre-existing mid to low-level circulation and convection as we earlier thought would be the case, then it would have a chance. Since it does not, it will not have the time to regain organization, regardless of how supporting the conditions are. And since the wave is now simply just a wave, it will be completely governed by the low-level steering flow from the subtropical ridge. This will take it on a quick westward course. It should be noted that even the wave still had a low-level circulation, a westward track would still occur, as the steering flow is easterly at both the mid and low-levels of the atmosphere. This was one aspect we correctly forsaw a couple days ago. What did not occur as expected was intensification after moving out of the upper level's grasp.

Another point that needs to be brought up is the hurricane season itself. With the failure of this to develop, we still stand at 0 named systems for the seasonal total. This is not that unusual, as on average we would have seen about 1 named storm by July 22. An active season with 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes is still forecasted. All of the known parameters that influence Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone activity point towards a significantly above average peak, particularly in the Mean Development Region. These parameters include low tropical shear, northward positioned Intertropical Convergence Zone, low sea level pressure anomalies, warm sea surface temperature anomalies, westerly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, no El Nino, and a strong thermahaline circulation.

--------------------
Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com


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Anonymous
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Re: IWIC afternoon discussion [Re: Rob_M]
      #16563 - Thu Jul 22 2004 06:26 PM

Wave completely dissipated: just the latest in a series of let down systems

nothing of signifigance comming off of Africa, so it looks as if we will go the next 11 days without a depression


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Rob_M
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Re: Requiem on 97L [Re: Steve]
      #16564 - Thu Jul 22 2004 06:28 PM

Quote:

As Phil noted above, 97L and the dry air it was entering battled to a draw. Both lost out. There isn't much on the horizon for the next week to ten days. There are two very inocuous waves (one at 62W and the other around 45W). But that's it. Africa is still rolling along as is the Indian Monsoon. So far, nothing much has come out of it. However, the Atlantic Basin continues on with its climatological progression toward the Cape Verde season. NOAA says that in many respects, the basin is actually ahead of schedule. I guess we'll see.


Sure is. Almost all of the known parameters except SAL/subsidence are more favorable than they would normally be at this time of the year...and the SAL/subsidence issue is completely normal. Once that moderates as we typically do moving into August...there will be virtually nothing to stop us from having an active year, particularly in the deep tropical Atlantic.

Another thing to possibly consider...remember, a tropical system's role is to transfer latent heat from the deep tropics further north. We haven't seen any this year in the Atlantic basin. Therefore, pretty much ALL of the latent heat remains in the deep tropics. How this will affect the strength of the first couple of storms and season has yet to be seen...may be a subject worth doing climatological research on.

--------------------
Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com


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summercyclone
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Re: give cords please, can't access it thru that way [Re: bobbi]
      #16565 - Thu Jul 22 2004 06:49 PM

Here ya go:

still there, sheared....

29.98 N
72.54 W

GOES Interactive.

sc


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Cool Stuff
Unregistered




I could watch all day. [Re: summercyclone]
      #16566 - Thu Jul 22 2004 06:56 PM

Isn't cool to see how our hemesphire breaths.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

If you believe in old school...
I noticed the Sea Turtles laying there eggs pretty close to the high tide line this year. NOT way up by the dunes as I have seen in previous years. This would lead me to believe that the turtles do not think we will have a large storm surge on the East Coast on Central Florida.
Time will tell if Nature really has a clue as to what the h*** is going on with the tropical weather this season.


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