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Tropical Storm Warning extended north along coastal TX to San Luis Pass. Sprawling Storm 01L will likely be named Alberto within 24 hours.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 294 (Idalia) , Major: 294 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 294 (Idalia) Major: 294 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Rabbit
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Re: thank u phil [Re: James88]
      #16321 - Mon Jul 19 2004 09:41 PM

waters are warming off of Ecuador

btw, does anyone know where to find the current streamlines?


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James88
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Re: thank u phil [Re: Rabbit]
      #16322 - Mon Jul 19 2004 09:47 PM

You're correct, they are slowly rising. I may be wrong, but I don't think there is enough time for a strong El Nino to develop to have a strong influence over the season. Still, I may be wrong, so please correct me if I am.

Back to our friend in the Atlantic - it is looking quite good, and if it can persist, I think this is the best candidate for a long time. I don't dare take my eyes off this system - could be very interesting.


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LI Phil
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NO EL NINO! [Re: James88]
      #16323 - Mon Jul 19 2004 09:50 PM

There will NOT be an El Nino influence on the 2004 season!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Rich B
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Re: 97L East of Windwards Being Watched [Re: Old Sailor]
      #16324 - Mon Jul 19 2004 09:59 PM

Hey guys,
well doesnt 97L look good this evening... well developed with some possible banding features, and tanking along at a steady pace - 25 mph. At this speed it will be crossing the islands tonight. And i am guessing NHC will wait to see what data comes in from the islands to see if it needs classifying or remains an open wave! Therefore, i dont expect it will be classified til early Tuesday. However, looks like the islands could get some pretty rough weather this evening and tonight

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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JasonM603
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Evening Update [Re: MikeC]
      #16325 - Mon Jul 19 2004 10:41 PM

Note: Our forecast products are unofficial. Please read our disclaimer.

IWIC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - 19 July 2004 - 6:45 PM EDT

We are continuing to monitor a vigorous tropical wave that is approaching the lower Winward Islands. The overall appearance of the wave has not changed much within the past 24 hours. However, there are a few interesting things that should be noted. An earlier SSMI pass clearly indicated that some dry air is wrapping into what appears to be mainly a mid-level circulation, since scatterometer winds are showing no signs of a surface circulation. The dry air entrainment will keep thunderstorm activity in check for the time being. Thunderstorms will continue to fire but they won't blossom enough for further development within the next 24 hours. In addition to dry air entrainment, infrared satellite imagery now indicates that the western fringe of the wave is being inhibited by light to moderate southwest shear. There is still some upper level ridging in place, so the wave is not expected to be sheared off completely anytime soon. Furthermore, the wave is still moving westerly at 25 miles per hour, and the bulk of the convection is just west of the center, certainly not a great sign for organization.

The wave will pass through the islands within the next 12 hours, with the potential for heavy rainfall and wind gusts as strong as tropical storm strength. Caribbean water vapor imagery reveals that dry air will continue to be a problem as the wave enters the eastern Caribbean. It would not be surprising if some of the convection were to diminish within the next 48 hours. However, upper level winds will still likely be marginally favorable for slow development.

The expected path of the wave is up in the air at this point. The global model consensus is for more of a west-northwest track through Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The globals weaken the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, allowing the low level steering flow to shift from due east to east-southeast. The globals also indicate that upper level ridging will still be in place over the wave once it approaches the Bahamas. If this solution were to verify, all bets are off. There are signs that the subtropical ridge may build west later in the period, and that would cause the potential low to stall for the time being. Even with the ridge in place, the globals still indicate no development. As already said, all bets are off if this solution were to pan out. On the other hand, the tropical models keep the wave on a westerly path, placing the center south of Cuba and Jamaica in 120 hours. This would decrease the potential for development, as the central and western Caribbean are bone dry at the moment. There are no signs of conditions changing in the near term.

The most reasonable solution at this time appears to be that suggested by the global models. While the wave is still racing westward, the low level steering flow has changed slightly over the past 12 hours, in favor of the global model consensus. This keeps the door open for slow development. The eastern Caribbean is known as the graveyard for tropical storms, and conditions aren't exactly supportive for development in that area. But the wave will have to be monitored since it still appears to be heading into the western Atlantic, where a lot can happen. Very slow development is possible over the next several days.

Elsewhere, activity behind the wave is also beginning to increase. These features will have to be monitored as they gain latitude while approaching the lower Lesser Antilles.

http://independentwx.com/atlanticdiscussion.html

--------------------
Independent Wx

Seasonal Forecast


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javlin
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Re: Evening Update [Re: JasonM603]
      #16326 - Mon Jul 19 2004 11:37 PM

I do not totally buy the NW motion later unless I see this system put on it's brakes.It's mass in motion it's got to slow down some to turn.The one example that I remember that made a right turn with little slow down was Erin into Pensacola.It seems you always will see a slowdown first .This system should be somewhere around the 70W mark by midnight tomorrow at this pace.Looks good but I think the development will be slow.What old Sailor said this is the boneyard for canes.I hope the system does not out run it's own thunderstom development.

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scottsvb55
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Re: Evening Update [Re: JasonM603]
      #16327 - Mon Jul 19 2004 11:43 PM

Agreed Jason. I posted the same thing on this (shorter detail) on the previous thread on the dry air and shear. There is a very slight chance for this to develop in the near term but most likely will be over the weekend into next week once it gets near Grand Cayman. With a new trough coming down the eastern U.S. this could cause widespread rainfall throughout florida again and anything from this wave (if it does develop in the NW carribean) will pull it N up across florida. Too early to tell exactly where do to the strength and timming of the Trough. scottsvb

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Cycloneye
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Re: Evening Update [Re: javlin]
      #16328 - Mon Jul 19 2004 11:45 PM

Regardless of what the wave does in terms of intensity I will recieve here in PR a good deal of squally weather from tommorow night depending on the track.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3

Edited by Cycloneye (Mon Jul 19 2004 11:46 PM)


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LI Phil
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Re: Evening Update [Re: Cycloneye]
      #16329 - Mon Jul 19 2004 11:58 PM

Jason,

Excellent analysis, as always. Many good reasons for development NOT to occur. Even I don't think we'll see much improvement for the next 24-48 hours or so. However, accuwx doesn't have quite the same take on the situation:

"A strong tropical wave is located near 57 west, and some thunderstorms ahead of the wave are moving into the Windward islands of the Caribbean. This wave has a good low-level circulation, and will be watched closely for further development over the next couple of days as it moves through the Caribbean Sea. There is a chance that this system will become the first Atlantic tropical depression of season sometime Tuesday or Wednesday as it heads toward the west or northwest over the Caribbean."

And I'm certainly NOT saying they're right and you're wrong...far from it...you and Rob have been spot on so far.

However, with Blas and now Celia, you have to think there's some teleconnections somewhere down the road for Alex.

Luis, you're not going to see Alex, but you're probably in for a good 12 hours or so of some tropical mischief (you lucky bastid).

TWC's Steve Lyons is acknowledging this wave at least. He did just make a good point that the thunderstorm activity is separating itself from the LLC (which IS there), and that's certainly not indicative of strengthening. Plus, like Old Sailor said (and others), the eastern carib is NOT an area where tropical cyclones form.

Ne'ertheless, I'm banking on this puppy holding together long enough to get itself into a better area (where that is right now, I don't know), but I still wouldn't bet against this getting into the Bahamas sometime near the weekend and then, well, lets just wait and see.

Ya gotta admit that this one has held itself together better than ANYONE (except of course, me) thought. I'm willing to go down with the ship, but I will not abandon it.

Cheers,

LI Phil

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Jul 20 2004 12:51 AM)


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Rabbit
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Re: Evening Update [Re: Cycloneye]
      #16330 - Tue Jul 20 2004 12:04 AM

I was told earlier that I was writing this system off too soon, but apparantly it is starting to fall apart
there has been only one storm in the eastern Caribbean from Jul 20-31 (I say the 20th because you will probably all agree this will not be a TS at 11pm)

this and the fact that the Africa system is rapidly falling apart and elongating to the NW, along with water temps and the fact that we are getting late in the month, are why I lowered my forecast to 14. It was carefully studied and not just an impatient jump


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LI Phil
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Bugs [Re: Rabbit]
      #16332 - Tue Jul 20 2004 12:13 AM

Perhaps you're not referring to me, but I didn't make any bones about THIS particular storm. I simply said there's 12 days left in July, and that stuff can happen. I'm still not convinced this will become Alex, or even a TD, but I'm going to ride it till it either becomes a TD or dies a horrible death, like all it's predecessors.

PEACE mi amigo

And happy early 21st b-day. I'll drink a toast to you on the 22nd!

LI Phil

(I didn't detect anything offensive - just an explanation of rationale for the change. Time to calm down. ED)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Jul 20 2004 12:59 AM)


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Rabbit
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION [Re: LI Phil]
      #16333 - Tue Jul 20 2004 12:14 AM

TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST ALONG 20W S OF 18N MOVING W
5-10 KT. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE DAKAR UPPER-AIR
SOUNDING AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE DAKAR SOUNDING SHOWS
A WELL-DEFINED WAVE PASSAGE ABOUT 24 HRS AGO IMPLYING THE WAVE
POSITION WOULD BE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WHILE A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 12N18W. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS A COMPROMISE OF BOTH DATA SOURCES AND
ASSUMES AN UNUSUALLY SLOW SPEED OF 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 13W-20W.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 58W S OF
16N RACING W 25-30 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH LOOSELY ORGANIZED BANDS
OF MODERATE CONVECTION TO THE N AND S. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY
FAST MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM...ONLY AN INVERTED TROUGH SIGNATURE
IS NOTED WITHIN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD. DESPITE THE FAST
MOTION...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES INTO A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS AND SQUALLY
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
...PRIMARILY FROM TRINIDAD/TOBAGO TO GUADELOUPE...THIS EVENING
THEN ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN TOMORROW.

the wave from yesterday in the carribean is almoat completely gone, and it was fairly strong going in


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Anonymous
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION [Re: Rabbit]
      #16334 - Tue Jul 20 2004 12:22 AM

Perhaps 97L will make its mark in history by becoming a depression in the eastern Carribean; it can happen!

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Rabbit
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Re: TROPICAL DISCUSSION [Re: LI Phil]
      #16335 - Tue Jul 20 2004 12:25 AM

predictions are just that--predictions. they have to be changed and refined as the situations change. I have held to the 15 storm forecast for quite a while, but we are nearing the end of teh month and everything comming off of Africa seems to be dissipating as it moves over water, and the upper winds over the Atlantic are going to remain unfavorable for the forseeable future.

As for my earlier mentioning of both systems looking good, the Africa system has become very poorly organized in recent hours, and the Antilles system has lost nearly all deep convection around the "center" if there is one, and there is nothing more that a weak wave at the surface, and it is moving into the eastern Caribbean

It is still possible for it to become a TD, and it is very likely we will have a TD this month, but i dont do depression forecasts, as there doesnt seem to be a noticable trend to use for seasonable depression forecasts, and the data doesnt go back as far as the storm data does

I am saying that nothing will make it through harsh winds or dry air long enough to be named, and I am still forecasting a very above average season, just a late start


one other thing: what was meant when everyone was talking about "analog" seasons? I'm not entirely sure what you meant, who ever mentioned it

Edited by Rabbit (Tue Jul 20 2004 12:26 AM)


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Rabbit
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CARIBBEAN OBSERVATIONS [Re: Rabbit]
      #16336 - Tue Jul 20 2004 12:43 AM

Barbados: E@17
St Vincent: E@14
Grenada: NNE@8
Trinidad : NE@3

it is not a closed low right now

this is my last post, because i am at a college computer, and they close in a few minutes
i will leave you all with this


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scottsvb1
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Re: Evening Update [Re: Rabbit]
      #16337 - Tue Jul 20 2004 01:07 AM

Phil the system doesnt have a good low level circulation. The system is mainly in the mid levels. It is possible for it to progess to the lower levels but there is no indication of this doing so, infact the mid level circulation is weakening slightly.

scottsvb


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Comments on the Day [Re: MikeC]
      #16338 - Tue Jul 20 2004 01:34 AM

Invest 97L now moving into the Windward Islands with a mid-level circulation near 12N 59W at 20/00Z. Movement continues to the west at 20kts. As with many embrionic systems, this wave had a couple of circulation centers - both mid-level. As stated yesterday in the Storm Forum, this was a wave worth watching for the next couple of days and that statement is still true. Without a cohesive convective core, any development (I'm still not convinced yet that there will be) will be slow. Movement should continue at a good pace to the west and eventually west northwest. If the wave should eventually strengthen, it would be less influenced by the low-level flow and would probably head in the general direction of the Yucatan Channel - but thats a long way off from now.

Regarding El Nino having an impact on this season...well, not very likely. We may eventually get to a weak El Nino state, but it will not happen until the season is over - perhaps in the December-January timeframe - and thats not certain either. The ENSO pattern so far this year is pretty close to the patterns that were observed in 1953 and 1990 - and to a lesser extent to 1969 (1969 was a tad warmer). The oceans are very conservative, i.e., it takes a long time for change to take place. Its probably smarter to look at month to month (or even season to season) changes in SSTs rather than week to week changes when you are trying to determine a trend.

Lots of great links were posted today - nice job!

Some of you need to take a deep breath and relax a bit. I know that everyone has been anticipating the first significant system - we've been spoiled by all of the early season activity over the past few years - but this year is still very normal in terms of the overall season - normally this happens about once every three years. The season is young and we've still got a long way to go - and don't get too excited about this wave. It may not amount to much - but others will, so save some energy and enthusiasm for those.

I know that some of you really don't like to hear this, but the keyword really is 'patience' when it comes to the tropics. Try to be tolerant of the other persons point of view since we are all here to enjoy a common pursuit.
Cheers,
ED


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Old Sailor
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Re: Comments on the Day [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #16339 - Tue Jul 20 2004 01:53 AM

Well put Ed, I don't think 97L is going to do much myself, one never knows. Guess us old Bulls just walk now, let the young Bulls run down the hill they still have the excitement of the chase.

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Robert
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Re: Comments on the Day [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #16340 - Tue Jul 20 2004 01:59 AM

Some one mentioned this erlier. The wave appeers to be splitting a piece continuing west and the bulk of the convection heading NW. Also that is what joe bastardi was alluding today. He does not think it will develop until the weekend he said a pattern is setting up in wich a very short trough will come down and it will get trapped between the trough and the ridge in or just east of the bahamas. His pattern recognitions sais that area is where it will head becuse of the trough position and a high pressure will be in place for excellent ventilation.

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HanKFranK
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Re: Comments on the Day [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #16341 - Tue Jul 20 2004 02:00 AM

ed doesn't sound overly excited. reminds me of john hope sometimes with the cautious, mindful approach to things. same basic message here.
spent the weekend in north carolina; didn't bother to drop a post last night (saw incipient 97L but didn't have anything to say that hadn't already been said). as of tonight it looks decent, with bursting convection and some weak banding features. with its current translational speed and convective organization i doubt there is a surface low, probably a notable windshift line though. has to slow down to do much. expect the low level flow to carry it further south and east than model predicitons.. shear should be inhibiting but not fatal. i'd give it 3 in 10 to be a system in the nw caribbean thursday morning.
probably going to be a great deal of surface convergence and residual cool air aloft as the eastern longwave recedes during the week off the southeast coast. whenever the upper westerlies peel out, watch whatever gets caught between the TUTT and the next digging pulse on the eastern trough. nothing particularly suggestive on models, but there usually isn't at this stage in the game.
itcz/wave train doing nothing particularly unusual for this time of year. globals resolve a low here and there but aren't latchign strongly to anything from run-to-run.
the appearance of 97L came roughly a week after blas formed.. that connection worked out (as it sometimes does). with celia popping up there may be something else down the road.
SOI took a nosedive over the weekend, strongly negative again. if this keeps happening we will be into a weak el nino by fall. it's too late to nix the season, but our numbers could still be shaved down.
this front blowing through the southeast in mid july really got my attention. fairly amplified pattern, ups the chances of subtropical activity. one way or another there's a decent chance we get a july storm.
HF 0200z20july


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