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Tropical Storm Warning extended north along coastal TX to San Luis Pass. Sprawling Storm 01L will likely be named Alberto within 24 hours.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 294 (Idalia) , Major: 294 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 294 (Idalia) Major: 294 (Idalia)
22.7N 94.3W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 997mb
Moving:
Wnw at 8 mph
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged:
Posts: 4552
Loc: Orlando, FL
97L East of Windwards Being Watched
      #16277 - Mon Jul 19 2004 05:41 PM

There's a system that could develop east of the Winwards. I'm not too sure it will last if it does though, the environment ahead of it isn't too great to be sustaining a system.

We'll be watching it though.



Mike's Tropical Development Probability Scale
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)

[-----*----------------]



It hasn't reached invest status yet, but we are watching.

Event Related Links
Martinique Radar
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports

General Links
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


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Bobbi
Unregistered




I'd give it higher odds but its far from a sure thing. [Re: MikeC]
      #16278 - Mon Jul 19 2004 05:46 PM

Maybe like 4.7 or 5.4 ..in that range.

Has a definite twist, yet hard to see what's going on under the cloud cover. Would bet there is no west wind yet indeed, but will there be.

Truth is... that my friends is a real good example of a nice, developing Tropical Wave.

Been a while, but I recognize it.

Wish it would slow down just a drop however at this point one shouldn't argue with success I suppose.

Watching..bobbi


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
another system worth watching [Re: Bobbi]
      #16280 - Mon Jul 19 2004 05:49 PM

take a look at this
and this off of Africa

when it looks that organized on IR, you know its strong
could be a TD in a day or so


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LI Phil
User


Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
97L [Re: Rabbit]
      #16281 - Mon Jul 19 2004 06:16 PM

Just watched JBs tropical video...man is he jumping all over 97L. He thinks, with modeling to back it up, that the system is going to head north, over Hispaniola and into the Bahamas by the weekend. A ridge is building in near the Islands, allowing it to sneak through the Antilles towards DR/Haiti. A TUTT drops down, but it misses 97L, so it continues it's northwest trek all the way to the Bahamas. At that point, models show it stalling and strengthening, eventually taking aim at the EC.

He's very concerned for the areas from Miami all the way up to NE.

A second scenario keeps 97L on a more southerly track, which would eventually take it either across or just south of Fla and into the GOM. He's not as keen on that one, but it is of course a possibility.

In any event, he thinks this one will be the one and needs to be watched.

Hey bugs, I guess you figured out the "URL" thingy? That wave has TD potential too.

And of course, the GOM is still just waiting to explode.

Cheers,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Loc: Central Florida
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT [Re: LI Phil]
      #16282 - Mon Jul 19 2004 06:26 PM

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2004

SQUALLS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ARE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. AS THESE SQUALLS MOVE THROUGH THE
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEY WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

take a look at this

what i thought yesterday was a weak wave with an outflow boundary appears now to be a developing tropical depression
what i thought was an outflow boundary is actually a strong rain band trying to block the center from the shear

Edited by Rabbit (Mon Jul 19 2004 06:28 PM)


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bobbi
Unregistered




Re: SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT [Re: Rabbit]
      #16283 - Mon Jul 19 2004 06:43 PM

Well, I must say Rabbit you're getting good at this.

Thanks for the sites, made me smile.. wasn't really in the mood to but you did.

and.. gee.. got a real system here to think upon don't we?

Took a long lunch and wandered around and came back to see a very vigorous wave.. that deserved a statement.

Can't someone get ship reports or far our island data or something... looks almost like its moving in for the kill.

Bobbi


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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT [Re: bobbi]
      #16284 - Mon Jul 19 2004 06:45 PM

buoy & ship data

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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bobbi
Unregistered




thank u phil [Re: LI Phil]
      #16286 - Mon Jul 19 2004 06:59 PM

mesmerizing
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT [Re: LI Phil]
      #16287 - Mon Jul 19 2004 07:07 PM

latest carribean radar

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LI Phil
User


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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
National Data Buoy Center [Re: bobbi]
      #16288 - Mon Jul 19 2004 07:07 PM

Here's the link for the National Data Buoy Center, FYI:

NDBC

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Another Good Link [Re: LI Phil]
      #16290 - Mon Jul 19 2004 07:20 PM

I'm sure most of you have this one, but for those of you that don't:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/caribm.html

A note:
There is light wind in Trinidad W@5 pressure dropping 29.94
A bit North in Barbados winds are E@17 with slightly higher pressure 29.97.


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT [Re: Rabbit]
      #16291 - Mon Jul 19 2004 07:25 PM

very cool, Rabbit!

sc


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Another Good Link [Re: Cocoa Beach]
      #16292 - Mon Jul 19 2004 07:27 PM

Looks like closed circulation to me.....east to the north of the center and west to the s...maybe an upgrade soon.....NHC can read the reports too....pressures fairly low considering distance to center....

sc


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: Another Good Link [Re: Anonymous]
      #16293 - Mon Jul 19 2004 07:43 PM

look at this ir in the pacific
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Edited by hurricane_run (Mon Jul 19 2004 08:01 PM)


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bobbi
Unregistered




have any of the islands issued any kinds of warnings [Re: Anonymous]
      #16294 - Mon Jul 19 2004 07:45 PM

Like St. Vincents to start with?

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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Another Good Link [Re: hurricane_run]
      #16295 - Mon Jul 19 2004 07:50 PM

look at the longitude--that is in the eastern pacific

dont worry, i made that same mistake a few hours ago on another forum site


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: Another Good Link [Re: Rabbit]
      #16296 - Mon Jul 19 2004 07:56 PM

ooops thats a mistake on me but it still is worth looking at

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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: Another Good Link [Re: hurricane_run]
      #16297 - Mon Jul 19 2004 08:03 PM

if you look at this ir the correct one you can see has more
convection with it

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir2-loop.html


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bobbi
Unregistered




great loop.. [Re: hurricane_run]
      #16298 - Mon Jul 19 2004 08:10 PM

wont tell you when i was last excited like this.. dying to know what NHC is going to do at five..

really has a nice explosive look and if it does develop would venture to say its going to have a classic NE quandrant

thanks guys


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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Re: Another Good Link [Re: Anonymous]
      #16299 - Mon Jul 19 2004 08:11 PM

If you look at the data between these three areas:

Trinidad:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TTCP.html

Grenada:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TGPY.html

Barbados:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

Check out the wind direction, speed, and pressures.
These three locations are within less than 200 miles of each other.
Somethin's a brew'n


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