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Western Gulf and NW Caribbean increasingly favored for development potential over the next week or so.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 290 (Idalia) , Major: 290 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 290 (Idalia) Major: 290 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: thanks for the dust info... miami wxr @5 [Re: Unregistered User]
      #16832 - Tue Jul 27 2004 11:27 PM

It probably stalled because of the push from the west with the dying frontal boundary and the push overtop out of New Mexico . Systems are a little blocked.

I recommend a healthy dose of Water Vapor Loops.

The High over the Atlantic is enormous. There are some ULL's underneath. But that's par for the course and the evolution of the summer. As I was speculating last weekend, that's really a setup that can bring long tracked storms in. Considering the Bermuda High hasn't even tested how far west it can get, down the road is a big question mark.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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bobbi
Unregistered




thank u, im soooooooooooooo bored [Re: Steve]
      #16833 - Tue Jul 27 2004 11:35 PM

thanks for the water vapor loop

heard norcross was a little more into watching for possible development, just watching mind u. i mean its not going anywhere fast.

think friend said he used the word "inching along" and supposedly tomorrow should be lots and lots and lots and lots of rain

should make me smile, huh?


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Anonymous
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Re: Worth Watching [Re: Rich B]
      #16834 - Tue Jul 27 2004 11:36 PM

after watching a visible sat loop at 25n 71 w , i saw that swirl emerging from under the clouds, which has recently had a blob of cold cloud tops directly over that lon/lat,what do you all think

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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
disc 27july/some offtopic at ed's mercy [Re: Rich B]
      #16835 - Tue Jul 27 2004 11:47 PM

before reading the posts on here i was going to say the following (nutshell version): watch the area around florida and the bahamas through the end of the month. add to that the typhoon teleconnection and the scenario is slightly more interesting. i'm not too impressed right now, it's still fighting the westerlies... and nothing very exciting in the models (except for those long range phantom storms steve was talking about). you can get the same 16-day GFS runs at the NCEP models page. they're pretty much useless past 7 to 10... usually can't nail the pattern much less timing of waves.
SOI tipped positive for the first time in a while. have to really make a stand to block an el nino onset. i don't like el nino's effect on the south, so i'm willing it to stay positive until doomsday.
by the way byett, a happy 25 to ya saturday. enjoy the bitter, or whatever there is to do in the u.k. on one's birthday. my bud turns 24 on saturday.. so i'll probably be out having fun then too.
as for the classification debate the other day.. i'll stick by my guns on that may system, iffier about the unclassified invest from yesterday. ed's logic is good stuff.. hearing a 'seasoned veteran' with better than canned NHC explanations does have an effect. but i'm pretty sure we had one in may.
which leaves...bobbi. the editing axe has been left in the shed for a couple days.. you got some real ramblers in. those are some strange hobbies you've got there... try not to get arrested.
anyhow it's slow time with that one area sheared and undeveloped nearing 70w. almost out of july, so if it's coming it had better hurry.
HF 2346z27july


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Worth Watching [Re: Anonymous]
      #16836 - Tue Jul 27 2004 11:54 PM

Plenty of rain in the everglades....not much circulation:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml

We shall see.


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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Tuesday E'en thoughts... [Re: Anonymous]
      #16837 - Tue Jul 27 2004 11:55 PM

Evening y'all,

James88 & Luis, thanks for the kind words re: my feeling like $h!+ this morning. Feel much better now...probably the meds kicking in.

Pretty gosh darn quiet out there. EPAC & WPAC are giving us a show, but das about all.

Haven't had a chance to even read/watch JB today, and at this hour, not gonna happen. Did read all your posts though.

Steve--there wasn't one person on this board rooting 97L on more than I...big guy...time to pack it in...not gonna happen. Although, could you imagine if that little sob gets across CA and gets a name in the EPAC?

Anyhoo...as I said this morning, unfortunately, I think we're gonna be devoid of tropical trouble until August. This better make up for June/July, that's fo' show!

Doing best JB, Enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you've got. Ciao for now.

LI Phil

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Jul 28 2004 12:21 AM)


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bobbi
Unregistered




Re: Tuesday E'en thoughts... [Re: LI Phil]
      #16839 - Wed Jul 28 2004 01:30 AM

Well... I don't see a lot of circulation. I've looked at the various loops and radars. What I do see is a total lack of movement. It looks like its just festering a bit, hanging, lingering, floating over the area.

I understand the steering currents have collapsed to some degree and its a sitting match. It might inch closer tomorrow to give Miami more rain but I heard the rain was supposed to start by now..and they haven't.

Agree with all of you that the area should be watched, anytime a wave is sitting over warm water it should be watched.

Feel better Phil. Really hope you feel better.
As for long rambling posts.. those weren't all MY hobbies, silly.. just hobbies. An example of some you can all take up while waiting and trying not to bash the NHC.

And, I'm being good. Laying low.. remember?


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