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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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LI Phil
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Re: Bashing the NHC [Re: Unregistered User]
      #16780 - Mon Jul 26 2004 08:31 PM

You raise a fair point, but for this system, they simply could have put in a disclaimer, something along the lines of "THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT ANY LANDMASS".

I believe Ed will be explaining it from a pro's point of view, so keep tuned.

Speaking of Floyd, I remember that one vividly. I believe it was a CAT IV brutalizing the Bahamas and headed for Florida when the decision to evac was given (and if I'm not mistaken, that was the largest peace time evac in US history). Cantore was all poised to bring the best footage since Andrew and then all of a sudden Floyd made a hard right and headed towards Hattaras, and eventually, me. Well, ol' Jim got on the first plane outta there, but since Seidel and Kenealy had already staked out their spots in NC, JC headed up to Point Lookout, about 9 miles south of me. So I got to meet the great Jim Cantore!

Sorry for the story (some of y'all have heard it before), but the point being that NHC may have "goofed" on Floyd, but it's quite a bit different to make the decision to order evac for a CAT IV storm 24-36 hours away from the US mainland (and on a direct path, no less), than to "classify" a storm whose Dvorak #'s certainly were of TD status.

It's probably in some part due to money, but when you're talking peoples' lives, it's probably better to be safe than sorry.

This (98L) would have affected neither.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
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Re: Bashing the NHC [Re: LI Phil]
      #16782 - Mon Jul 26 2004 08:39 PM

Definately, Phil. There are some examples of waves being assigned tropical depression status when it was clear they would be very short lived. Look at TD# 2 in 1999 and TD #9 in 2001. They only had two advisories written on them, but then they threatened the coast of Mexico and Central America respectively. Number 9 obviously had potential - it became CAT 4 Hurricane Juliette in the E. Pacific. As others have said 98L posed no threat, so I guess they will only upgrade something short lived when it is going to make landfall. I may be wrong, but that's my thought on the matter.

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Old Sailor
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Re: The fault lies not within the stars... [Re: Steve]
      #16783 - Mon Jul 26 2004 08:42 PM

Steve:
I think Florida in for some heavy( Thunder storms) rain the next 36 hours or so, in my area we picked up 7 inches of rain the last 10 days, now over 11 inches for July. See what happens when it come across FL into the GOM.
Dave


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LONNY307
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Re: FLORIDA RAIN [Re: Old Sailor]
      #16785 - Mon Jul 26 2004 09:19 PM

What is that on the loops a trof axis or a wave coming into South florida? Will it hold together or is it from the heating of the day?

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Old Sailor
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Re: FLORIDA RAIN [Re: LONNY307]
      #16786 - Mon Jul 26 2004 09:42 PM

I think you are talking about the thunder storms in the Bahamas heading to south/ center FL. There is a Strong SE wind from tade winds, and merges with exisiting frontal trough. Just a rain maker for FL, May cause problems down the road when it reaches the GOM and still holding together, wait and see thing.

Dave


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HanKFranK
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trouble with the nhc [Re: Old Sailor]
      #16788 - Mon Jul 26 2004 10:25 PM

four depressions so far this year? uh, i'd go with maybe one. all of the others were too poorly defined or transient to illicit classification. but yeah, that thing that crossed haiti on may 23-24 was definitely a tropical cyclone in my book. the argument against i've heard people make usually involved 'well, you see there was this upper trough, and it was shearing the system during much of its lifetime and it only briefly had a classic tropical cyclone appearance, the rest of the time its convection was removed or the low level center was elongated'. but then i don't follow with the idea that association with an upper trough precludes something being tropical.. especially if it originates in the caribbean or isn't stuck on a frontal boundary.
the thing yesterday into today was probably a tropical depression. it was a closed low pressure of tropical origin over support threshhold waters.. that began to associate with a front today and sheared out just a few hours ago as the upper trough finally got hold of it. NHC didn't feel like classifying a weakling system in light of the fact that a similar one in may wasn't classified.. one that killed 3000 people. anyhow whenever gary padgetts analyses are updated we'll get a lowdown independent of and more inclusive than NHC's.
there's isn't a whole lot of potential for the other features out there. eastpac continues to fire off storms, so one would expect the atlantic to respond in kind. shouldn't before late in the week.
HF 2223z26july


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LoisCane
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not bashing nhc on my part.. disagreeing [Re: James88]
      #16789 - Mon Jul 26 2004 11:20 PM

its a free country and im allowed to have my own opinions

i dont think there were four systems .. maybe one besides this one but even that not sure..

this i think/feel/believe IS a subtropical and I am very into telling it like it is and being honest, even if a short lived one and i dont see how it can be justified as not ...

if you want to say you dont want to bother.. i agree with phil.. call it, issue advisories, insist it is going out to sea and not a threat.. they have done that many times, people are not stupid and i dont think boston would have to be put under a threat of tropical attack during the democratic convection because of this.. they are used to storms forming, merging, going out to sea

and agree with james in that which way its headed does have some input on their decision

just.. i like keeping it real and to the truth..
and i dont like pretending something isnt what it is when it is and i dont like on the other hand pretending something is bigger than it is because it fits someone's needs..

dont like hype .. dont like games in forecasting

i think NHC did an incredible job with floyd which was a horrible worse case scneario and honestly at any time that monster could have changed direction just enough to do untold damage to florida

i dont see how anyone in florida can complain..
i was at the beach alot taking photos and could hear that monster screaming and moaning like a tornado about to descend upon the prairie..different from almost any other hurricane "out there" i have ever heard..

maybe some people in NC could feel too much emphasis was put on Florida and not them but their local people should have known better in my opinion

one reason i love the re-evaulation of old storms that is going on because i think they correct a lot of bad calls and tho some disagree.. its one reason i am happy about Andrew being renamed a five.. think it deserved it

now..off the soap box
done ranting and what is happening in the bahamas?

bobbi
hope its not another monster out of nowhere cat five storm like that 35 storm, which i really doubt was a cat five but i have my own reasons for that and they are based on solid research historically of the period but thats for another day

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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BillD
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Re: Bashing the NHC [Re: James88]
      #16790 - Mon Jul 26 2004 11:53 PM

I decided last year to stop posting for a while, mostly because I got caught up in one of the NHC bashing scenarios, it has been going on here on this board and others for many years and does tend to get out of hand. The reality is that the NHC formula for categorizing a storm is not 100% based on weather observations. There is some percentage that is politics, some percentage is the fact that they are human (and as someone said, there are some forecasters that are predisposed to certain forecasts) and a percentage that is tied directly to the possible costs of a situation (like Floyd, although I think they did the right thing with Floyd, I was here, in Miami, I was sure that we were going to get nailed). On this board everything is based on just the observations and the human factor, we don't have to worry about politics... except for a little posturing here and there or money, but they do, and I think they do an excellent job, it is not a job that I would want.

I agree with bobbi that disagreeing with the NHC is not that same as bashing, but some of what I read went beyond disagreeing.

Let's drop this and go back to watching the tropics. I have been reading every message since the season began, and enjoying the different points of view and discussions.

Bill


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LoisCane
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hi Bill [Re: BillD]
      #16791 - Tue Jul 27 2004 12:04 AM

just part of the way things go..

i dont think there is a fan anywhere of some sort of hobby that doesnt spend half the time frustrated with the coach, NHC is the coach

why why why..y is a crooked letter

why did they say Andrew would catch the trof
why didnt they see betsy would turn

we weather folks are like sports folks and we tend to complain a lot, get frustrated, disagree with the calls, stress..

maybe we should all find a secondary hobby.. one less stressful from the hurricane tracking

dont leave because some bash the NHC, they only do it when they are going out of their minds, pencils sharpened, dates for travel and vacations blocked out around the peak of the season, empty charts calling..

no..dont leave.. wait it out
nhc does a good job, all in all and as said...there are some political considerations here and there and also..am sure some personality conflicts and disagreemetns of their own which they have to keep under wraps .. government job, you know?

just hang in there good to see u, glad you are here

wheres the old poster PINC, I miss him.. he always talked about stress.. he was right, tracking hurricanes leads to stress, but he made it less stressful

and that writer is right.. some people spend too much time being angry enjoying their favorite hobby

bobbi

(off-topic material removed)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Jul 28 2004 01:38 AM)


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LI Phil
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Re: not bashing nhc on my part.. disagreeing [Re: LoisCane]
      #16798 - Tue Jul 27 2004 01:27 AM

>>> f you want to say you dont want to bother.. i agree with phil.. call it, issue advisories, insist it is going out to sea and not a threat.. they have done that many times, people are not stupid and i dont think boston would have to be put under a threat of tropical attack during the democratic convection because of this..

Bobbi...LOL. The Democratic Convection! You must suffer from "When the hell is the NHC ever gonna classify a TD" syndrome. Affecting us all...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Anonymous
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For Bastardi Fans and netwaves.net (Panama City Beach)... [Re: LI Phil]
      #16799 - Tue Jul 27 2004 01:46 AM

http://www.net-waves.com/weather/tropics.php

That's the new updated links for net-waves.net

I don't know how they did it, but they've got Joe's Tropical Update from today right there on screen. All you have to do is click the Accuweather Link. No kidding. Enjoy.

Steve


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Bashing the NHC [Re: BillD]
      #16800 - Tue Jul 27 2004 01:56 AM

Looking for a good lead-in line - lets see:

Today the inept forecasters at NHC refused to upgrade a significant tropical wave to Depression status and felt the wrath of 2 or 3 thousand astute tropical weather enthusiasts from around the world. This is the seventeen worldwide occurance of this serious infraction this year of tropical meteorological guidelines.

No - wait a minute - doesn't seem right - lets try again:

Today the professionals at NHC, following established guidelines, properly handled the classification of a dime-sized, elongated and sheared system and did not upgrade it to TD status. Unknown to them, this created quite a stir among maybe twenty or thirty avid fanatical tropical weather watchers that dissect every wave (wet or otherwise) hiccup and burp in the Atlantic basin , on a couple of weather boards, that happened to take issue with their decision. It is felt that this outrage will probably not have much impact on changes to NHC policy.

I guess that we do this every year don't we? Only since its often the same folks, I can't figure out WHY we do this every year- it makes me wonder if we are learning anything? I want to emphasize that word 'why'. Its okay to disagree with NHC or TWC or anybody else, but at least tell me WHY you disagree (credit to Bobbi - she at least stated her reasons why - and HF and Steve always provide their rationale). To simply state that in your opinion there have been four TDs this year, without telling me the meteorological conditions that made you feel that way, teaches me nothing. Even the NHC tells you why they did or didn't do something. Disagreeing with NHC is when you explain why - bashing NHC is when you don't explain why (or you haven't got a clue). I'll accept the former on this board, but not the latter.

For some of you, I think that NHC becomes your favorite 'whipping boy' - when they do something, they are wrong and when they don't do something they are still wrong (usually the latter). Makes me wonder if they ever do anything right in your eyes. Yet every year we jump on their case during the season, but when the season is over we comment on how great a job they did on this storm or that storm. I'm guilty too, but at least I try to make an effort to explain my differing opinion if I have one. Some of you should do the same.

Here is a reality check: If the NHC had never mentioned this system in their discussions over the last couple of days, none of todays dialogue would have happened. Think about it - I mean really think about it. They give you a 'heads-up' that something COULD happen - are they wrong for that or were they just doing their job? Nothing happened (my opinion and obviously theirs), i.e., it (the potential TD) didn't and they (NHC) didn't - time to move on.

If I were working at NHC today (rather than CPHC many years ago - snuck that one in didn't I) I would have made the same decision. It had some TD characteristics, but not enough. It had a low-level circulation, but that circulation quickly became elongated east-west under the influence of the front to its immediate north. Convection was constantly under west southwesterly upper shear and could not wrap around the core. Even the models never projected anything greater than 29 knots. If the wave had been upgraded to a TD, it probably would have generated an outcry from those who would have felt that it didn't deserve it - a lose-lose scenario.

In my professional opinion, I don't think that there has been a TD yet this year in the Atlantic basin - not a one. Perhaps a bit unusual, but thats just calling it like I see it. The Haiti/Dominican Republic wave came close, but I don't believe that it had a closed circulation. I didn't see any reports, aircraft or surface of westerly wind - not a single one - so I believe that, although very strong, the wave was open and therefore not a TD.

Lets face it, we are really not here to debate the merits of the NHC or any other agency - we are here to track tropical systems. I think that its time to get back to that - sooner or later something will happen - it always does.
Cheers,
ED

P.S. Great post BillD - thank you for coming back to make it.


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Old Sailor
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Re: Bashing the NHC [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #16802 - Tue Jul 27 2004 02:11 AM

I agree 100%, they call the shots and from the years I followed The NHC....... They have been on track and given wise rating and status to their forecasts.

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LI Phil
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Re: Bashing the NHC [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #16803 - Tue Jul 27 2004 02:14 AM

Ed,

Thank you for the excellent post and for explaining NHC (and CPHC)'s reasoning. Since you are a professional met and have been tracking these bad boys for what, 50+ years, I will not argue. However, I do beg to differ with one point.

When I wake up to find a system (albeit, no threat), 200 miles to my southeast, with Dvorak T#s of 2.0/2.0, and an excellent satellite signature, what's the harm in giving it a (in my lame and humble opinion) a TD status?

To my mind, NHC's mission is not only to protect and serve (ala NYPD et al), but to truthfully report every system. Why did we have Peter and Odette last year? They were no threat...but NHC still took the time and effort to track them?

I don't want to wishcast or wavemonger or any other terms. And, Ed, since I'm the one who begged you to explain this, I will respect your opinions on this matter, you have more experience in this field than probably everyone else on this board combined...well, maybe not Old Sailor, but you catch my drift.

Thanks for explaining. We can all agree that 99.9% of the time NHC does an outstanding job. We are just a bunch of dedicated weather enthusiasts who sometimes feel that questioning their judgment is our sworn duty. There's a reason every "amateur" and "professional" website provides the caveat, "Do Not Rely on these Forecasts...always check NHC (or NOAA or whomever) for the official word on this".

On an unrelated note, John has turned off the Star Rating system, at least for the time being. What was at first an excellent and well-meaning vehicle for honest opinion sharing, over the past two weeks became a tool for either a disgruntled user or a hacker to ruin the noble purpose for which I'm sure John & Mike spent a good amount of time to enable in the first place.

OK, that's my piece. I will continue to respect everything for which NHC stands and the great work they do. And BillD, wlecome back. And thanks again, Ed, for the response. Not quite what I wanted to hear, but I will accept this as the final answer to the ongoing debate.

Everyone have a good night.

Cheers,

(NO STAR) LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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DroopGB31
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Re: Bashing the NHC [Re: LI Phil]
      #16804 - Tue Jul 27 2004 03:02 AM

I agree with you 100% Ed.

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Anonymous
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Re: It's looking wet [Re: LI Phil]
      #16805 - Tue Jul 27 2004 03:09 AM

Interesting reads everyone and I wondered about those stars myself at one point awhile back.Oh yea the new headline the WV imagine looks awful moist out there guys, the apple is just about ready for picking.Things happening in the Pacific now puts us in the first week of August right?By the way off topic did anyone else's home ower insurance happen to almost 2x this year?I almost choked.

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javlin
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Re: It's looking wet [Re: Anonymous]
      #16806 - Tue Jul 27 2004 03:14 AM

That was me guys some work with the system today I guess.Look back in few days.Bobbi just have to love that emotion of yours.

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Steve
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Re: It's looking wet [Re: javlin]
      #16807 - Tue Jul 27 2004 03:28 AM

>> WHY we do this every year- it makes me wonder if we are learning anything?

Just a quick note Ed (enjoyed the post btw). The problems include perceived lack of consistency, potential political pressure, self-verification/justification issues among others. As long as the degree of subjectivity is excercised as greatly as it is at the NHC, there will always be plenty of room for criticism, not all of it unwarranted IMHO. That's not to say I don't love them and what they do either. But like you said. It's different when the back-up is provided.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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LoisCane
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Starting over [Re: DroopGB31]
      #16808 - Tue Jul 27 2004 03:41 AM

Good post Ed. Agree on most points .. not on all but good post. Nice to see you writing, you write well. Agree with Phil who said stated views pretty well.

Tomorrow brings a new.. a new set of possibilities.

Don't tell me though not to get excited or passionate about tropical weather because this is what binds us. Or I'd be doing one of those other hobbies some of which I may point out dont need to be done online.

But, life isn't just about the tropically inspired and we all have other things on our minds and its been a long, hot summer.

So... let's see how tomorrow plays out and the day after that and that.

Thanks for all the hard work on the site by the two brothers and everyone else.

I can agree with someone and still respect them. And, I do respect the Hurricane Center greatly. Some of the nicest, best people I know work at the hurricane center. Talking personally know... not like people here who I know online but of couse they work at Virginia Key lol. Okay, seriously.. I went to FIU.. where NHC control room is set up so... let's here it for the home boys and call it a night.

Nite.. rained here.. thunder and lightning.. maybe a prelude to tomorrow and the bahamian rain.

Bobbi

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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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joepub1
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Re: Bashing the NHC [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #16810 - Tue Jul 27 2004 05:10 AM

Great post Ed. I also think there have been no TD/TS yet this year. I save my bashing for the models for the most part, the GFDL being my favorite target. Garbage for the most part, even though it has performed better the last two years IMO.

Politics plays a part in this area, for sure. It costs alot of money for emergency shelters to be opened, phone banks to be manned, evacs, ect. Most of the time local govenments have to pay the piper with money us locals (and states and the federal gov. as well) don't want to come up with. All this has to come into play when a NHC forecaster makes a call on naming (or just putting out an advisory on) a system. When the system has few, if any, tropical features, it's up to the local weather people to get the word out, because when the NHC speaks people sometimes take it as an end-of-the world type of thing. I have thought in the past the NHC went a little too far in naming some systems that were no threat to anyone or anything. I think they're getting it right this year. Just because a weather event caused 3000 people to die, and I'm really sorry that happened, does't mean you have to give it a name. Giving it a name would not have saved lives in that case this past May, nor will it bring any one of them back. If you must, call it whatever you like. Make it TS Alex in your book, and count it. Do it for today's system as well. But please don't do it just because we are not going to have a named system for the first two months of the season. We'll have plenty of real tropical cyclones to track in a short time.

Of course, that time is not now. The tropics are about as void of features as you'll ever see in late July. But soon, fellow storm trackers, soon.


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