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Western Gulf and NW Caribbean increasingly favored for development potential over the next week or so.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 290 (Idalia) , Major: 290 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 290 (Idalia) Major: 290 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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James88
Weather Master


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Bahamas? [Re: joepub1]
      #16811 - Tue Jul 27 2004 12:41 PM

The convection in the Bahamas is really flaring up and looks a little more concentrated. Something to watch for today, perhaps.

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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


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Re: Bahamas? [Re: James88]
      #16812 - Tue Jul 27 2004 01:15 PM

Wondering where all that convection will flow? W-NW or just W?

--------------------
________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Tropics Guy
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Re: Bahamas? [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #16813 - Tue Jul 27 2004 02:14 PM

The ETA model runs show a deepening low off the sw coast of Fla/se gulf by Fri. Presume that this is the wave/disturbance moving east to west from the bahamas.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=eta_sfc_mslp&loop=1

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Steve
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Re: Bahamas? [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #16814 - Tue Jul 27 2004 02:16 PM

Myself Joe. Originally I thought the pulsing high tide of the Bermuda Ridge would just nudge it past Florida into the Eastern Gulf where it would probably get picked up along the old frontal boundary draped SW-NE. But watching the loops, it appears that the majority of the new flareup is NW-NNW of where the last ball of convection developed. Remnants of 97L are still down in the BOC, but I doubt they pull anything off.

Typhoon Namtheun (gusts to 130k) is taking a very interesting path in the WPAC. Bastardi likens it to a storm that would be taking aim for land between Jacksonville and Savannah from the E or SE. The moral is the strength of the ridge over Japan and it's teleconnections to Eastern North America. He doesn't give much else much of a chance. He noted that the ULL NE of P.R. has entrained a tropical wave and requires monitoring as the convection may start working back on itself. If the ULL splits off SW, it could leave a mid or LLC under a difluent flow. Check out the UKMET 00Z run for more info.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


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Re: Bahamas? [Re: Steve]
      #16815 - Tue Jul 27 2004 02:32 PM

Hey guys,
not alot to talk about at present really. The only significant area of interest is that in the Bahamas, which several have already said about. This area has seen persistent activity for a while now, and the convection is still firing up today. Interesting that some hint at this making it to the gulf by the weekend. We all know how ripe that area is for development at times, so if it makes it there it will bear watching. Of course, alot can happen between now and then though, but it would be cool if it became something on Saturday - i'll be 25 then

Anyway, will post again soon.

Kind regards.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Steve/and Bahamas [Re: Steve]
      #16816 - Tue Jul 27 2004 03:12 PM

Steve... i beg you... take a deep breath.. let it gooooooooo

"Remnants of 97L are still down in the BOC, but I doubt they pull anything off."

****************************

next... why do I have high clouds, cirrus over my house ..way way high up to the nne ... sw is dark, low clouds, building tstorms maybe...

why the cirrus? sort of wierd ...not something you see much in miami in late july

anyway... watching.. not obsessing today, nope..
going to work... watching the sunshine and the storms flirt with eachother and will see if anything happens

bobbi
ps...if I get rain from the Bahamian rain.. I will go outside, stand there, stare up at the rain and whisper sweet nothings into the air.. and so if something happens in a day or two..or before july is over or on july31st (eds date) then yall owe me, you hear?

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


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Bahamas/Florida Rains [Re: LoisCane]
      #16817 - Tue Jul 27 2004 03:38 PM

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on July 27, 2004


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the western Bahamas
are associated with westward moving tropical wave. Surface
pressures remain high in the area and development is not expected.
Tropical storm formation is not expected through Wednesday.
Forecaster Avila
$$

I guess this will provide rain for Florida for the next 2 days.

--------------------
________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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LI Phil
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Awaiting the rain [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #16819 - Tue Jul 27 2004 04:49 PM

Hey all,

Home sick today . Good discussions yesterday. Looks pretty quiet today. In a few hours I'm about to receive about 36 straight hours of rain (training rains). Flood watches up everywhere. Those poor bastids in Jersey are just getting pummeled this year.

Will be watching the Bahamas' system with interest. Maybe something gets going late week. Unfortunately, it's looking more and more like we'll enter August stormless.

BTW, keep your eye on that WPAC monster. Weakening, but still packing a whallop. 18' swells pounding Japan. Wonder if it will teleconnect (as per Steve/JB) down the road?

Later,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Awaiting the rain [Re: LI Phil]
      #16820 - Tue Jul 27 2004 05:27 PM

Hey Phil, hope u feel better soon!
TheBahamas 'mess' does need watching. I just viewed the GHCC visible loops for this area, and noticed what appeared to be a possible mid-level circulation south of Andros Island. Not sure for definite cus it only appeared in the last couple of frames as the high level cloud begin to thin. Will keep watching though

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


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Tropics quiet for the moment [Re: Rich B]
      #16821 - Tue Jul 27 2004 07:50 PM

IWIC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - 27 July 2004 - 12:45 PM EDT

Each run of the operational GFS continues to show a strong tropical wave exiting the coast of Africa in 5-6 days. Conditions will likely be condusive for tropical development by the time the wave reaches the eastern Atlantic. We are now entering the time of the season when every single wave coming off the COA will have to be watched closely. I'd very very surprised if one of these waves don't develop within the next 10-14 days

Those remarks are from Jason and Rob of IndependentWx.com.Will things begin to heat up soon in the atlantic? I see dust and more dust but I know that normally it fades by the peak of the season so we will see.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3

Edited by Cycloneye (Tue Jul 27 2004 07:52 PM)


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


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Worth Watching [Re: Cycloneye]
      #16822 - Tue Jul 27 2004 08:00 PM

That 'mess' at 65N 25W appears to be circulating.

--------------------
________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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bobbi
Unregistered




ok..cyclone..educate me a bit here please [Re: Cycloneye]
      #16823 - Tue Jul 27 2004 08:01 PM

Why doest the dust tend to fade as the season gets closer to the CV Season.

I know it does and the height of the dust season is usually a month or so before the height of the CV season. Read that a few places but I don't know why..

so asking..do you or anyone else round here know why?

Bobbi


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


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Saharan Dust Aloft [Re: bobbi]
      #16824 - Tue Jul 27 2004 08:09 PM

Storm activity in the desert region ebbs during this period; these storms send top SOIl particles aloft and get carried by the trade winds that generally get deposited in the GOM sparking off an algae bloom with the nitrogen-rich particles.

These storms subside before the Cape Verde season begins, generally.

--------------------
________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: ok..cyclone..educate me a bit here please [Re: bobbi]
      #16825 - Tue Jul 27 2004 08:21 PM

Hey bobbi,

Thought you might have been brewing tea with tropical raindrops or something, no?

>>That 'mess' at 65N 25W appears to be circulating.

65N and 25W? that would be north of Iceland. I couldn't find anything to speak of there. Heh.

On IWIC:

GFS 360 this morning showed a hurricane off the FL coast. I don't know if NCEP has it (I get to 372 hours on Accupro). The 12Z run takes a 996mb storm toward the NJ shore. Obviously any faith in the GFS at 15 days out is beyond anything remotely resembling reality, but it goes to show that the action's 'acomin'. Interestingly, it also shows a few drive-by shootings of waves in South Florida.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


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Re: ok..cyclone..educate me a bit here please [Re: Steve]
      #16826 - Tue Jul 27 2004 08:24 PM

Would you believe 65W 25N? (To the East of the Bahamas and north of the isles?) I guess I do need education(LOL)

--------------------
________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: ok..cyclone..educate me a bit here please [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #16827 - Tue Jul 27 2004 08:44 PM

Yeah, I was only kidding (thus the "heh"). I had a whale of a time finding a Goes Sat that I could click on to get me to those coordinates because the Longitude lines get pretty close together once you get to the land of Sigur Ros and Bjork/Sugarcubes.

Anyway, 65W 25N (or thereabouts) is the wave-entrained ULL that I noted Bastardi mentioned on his Tropical Update this morning. His worry (backed by the GFS Upper Air Charts) was that the ULL was going to back off SW and allow the buildup of energy to generate bottom up instead of top down (under the ULL). The departing ULL would leave rising air/diffluence in its wake and allow for potential buildup. None of the models depicting this (UK Met, ECMWF) showed anything 'severe' hitting coastal South Carolina, but the ripples in the isobar lines were right there on the map. Also, that would teleconnect with the JTWC's last prediction for the WPAC Typhoon.

Elsewhere, the Gulf is still muddled a bit from the cold front (nice here in the city today, lowER humidity), 97L continues to churn away in the BOC (sorry Bobbi, I can't let it go until it turns up into the front or progresses into Mexico - it's the only game in my neck 'o da woods). And finally, the wave energy on the western periphery of the Bermuda High off the East FL coast is probably kicking up some decent surf (go Robert) and should keep the Peninsula under the gun for a day or two. Tough to tell if the wave axis will continue west or if the convection is going to ride the ridge. We'll see.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Hurric
Weather Guru


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Re: Worth Watching [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #16828 - Tue Jul 27 2004 09:18 PM

I just got home and noticed the twist in the clouds on visible Sat Just to south of Andros near 23.5N, 77.5W. I don't remember seeing it early this morning and was wondering if anyone could tell me how long it has been there and at what level it is. We are not getting the rain expected this week in coastal St. Lucie County, FL--yetVisible

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bobbi
Unregistered




thanks for the dust info... miami wxr @5 [Re: Steve]
      #16829 - Tue Jul 27 2004 09:27 PM

They led off with the weather as being a main story which I thought was a bit much. Kamal says the wave has now stalled. And, it should enhance rainfall (wouldn't think that is a BIG story, has been raining a bit) and... added that there is no way it can get going into anything .. but still it will rain.

Why they had to lead with a IR sat pic I don't know. We haven't had flooding rains where I am that it should make such a difference. Imagine new forecast is calling for heavier rains.

Tho..with a system stalled out over the warmest parts of the gulfstream.. I wouldn't be sure of anything.

1? Why did it stall? Thought the High was supposed to shove it west

2? If there is a twist at 65 then how does that influence this..

3? wouldnt a twist at 65 and an ULL be sort of strange with the high building. on my part i really haven't looked too much today because like how I decided not to obsess about the weather and all so... just curious what is going on out there

thanks for the explanation, steve hang onto anything you need to and will reread what you said joe said

bobbi


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bobbi
Unregistered




hey there.. oh and ps [Re: Hurric]
      #16830 - Tue Jul 27 2004 09:31 PM

i did know you went w and not north so dont worry on that

as for hurric.. hi
and.........think there is a twist and its why there isnt much rain going on and the sky outside is quite blue .. all things considered I don't think it just stalled.. I think its spinning on SOME level. watched radar loop a bit but couldn't tell anything for sure, your loop is better.. does that mean development, no.. just interesting thats all

wondered if it was spinning a drop because when we lose the weather we were supposed to get well.. figure there is a reason, seems to have become a bit of a tropical invert down there


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


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Re: Worth Watching [Re: Hurric]
      #16831 - Tue Jul 27 2004 09:40 PM

Hey Huric and guys,
Huric, i first noticed the twist in the clouds near Andros, or just south rather, at around 1700z this evening, it only became visible as higher level clouds thinned. I am guessing this circulation is probably at the mid-levels, and seems to be getting a little better defined. The majority of the convection is located away from the circulation, namely south over Cuba and north and west over the islands and towards Florida. Could bear watching if it hangs around in this region as the SST's are pretty high there.

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


Edited by Rich B (Tue Jul 27 2004 09:44 PM)


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