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Western Gulf and NW Caribbean increasingly favored for development potential over the next week or so.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 290 (Idalia) , Major: 290 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 290 (Idalia) Major: 290 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Steve
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Re: "98L [Re: Cycloneye]
      #16643 - Sat Jul 24 2004 02:17 PM

The wave moving north of the islands just adds potential to whatever might be there for 98L. I don't see it as an independent entity for long.

Steve

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: "98L [Re: Cycloneye]
      #16644 - Sat Jul 24 2004 02:24 PM

Actually it was the upper low that sparked my interest in the wave. The low is lifting slowly to the north and building a narrow ridge to its southwest - between the low and the wave. 98L has really elongated east-west as the retrograde process seems to have started. I'll take another look at it this afternoon.
Cheers,
ED


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HanKFranK
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Re: "98L [Re: Steve]
      #16645 - Sat Jul 24 2004 02:29 PM

what he said. the low level swirl from 98L is clear of the upper support/surface convergence line near 70w, drifting west and away. a different vorticity max will have to take over for the disturbed area to present a real threat. there should be extra convergence as the wave to the east approaches next 72hrs.
caribbean remnants of 97L progressing very slowly. retrograding upper low to the north will enhance convection for a while, then possibly shear it, then enhance it again. two says no pressure falls so nothing happening soon.
that's the gist of today. areas of interest, but probably no development before monday.
HF 1429z24july


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DustDuchess
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Re: "98L [Re: HanKFranK]
      #16646 - Sat Jul 24 2004 02:56 PM

98L will be late, but it will keep an important date.
Meterologists will have a cow
But 98L will raise eyebrows!


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Storm Cooper
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Re: "98L [Re: DustDuchess]
      #16647 - Sat Jul 24 2004 03:02 PM

Well... no big suprise but the recon has been called off for today

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LI Phil
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IWIC Forecast [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #16648 - Sat Jul 24 2004 03:19 PM

Well, since Rob or Jason hasn't posted it here yet, I will...the Saturday IWIC forecast:

The remnants if Invest 97L flared during the overnight hours. Convection has since diminished over the past 6 hours. Development is not expected. However, the wave will be monitored once it enters the Gulf of Mexico, as a trough will likely absorb most of the moisture and increase rain chances along the Gulf Coast.

The disturbed area of weather near the Bahamas hasn't change much in terms of organization over the last 24 hours. The upper level low causing a lot of upper shear will push west into Florida, allowing for upper level winds to become a bit more condusive for tropical development. A recon will investigate this area later today, if neccessary. Slow development is possible over the next several days.

Latest GFS runs are now that first indication that the Cape Verde season could begin during the last couple days of July or the first week of August. The operational GFS has had a strong wave progged to exit the coast of Africa for the past several runs. But the latest runs shows a couple waves that are even stronger. All seasonal parameters still suggest that we are in store for a very active 2004 hurricane season.

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James88
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Re: IWIC Forecast [Re: LI Phil]
      #16650 - Sat Jul 24 2004 03:49 PM

It sure would be interesting if Alex turned out to be a long-tracking CV storm. As Steve pointed out earlier, the East Atlantic is not quite ready to give us anything yet, but if the IWIC Forecast is right, we could be within a week to a fortnight away.

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LI Phil
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98L is DOA [Re: James88]
      #16651 - Sat Jul 24 2004 04:00 PM

I'm not sure why they still even have an invest on 98L. Nothing doing there. Remnants of 97L still causing some mischief...check out the convective burst over the Caymans. Not gonna seek it out now, but there's a webcam at the 'turtle farm' on Grand Cayman, might provide a bit of a show if anyone's interested.

Be nice to see the CV season start a tad early...not much else going on, although the basin is definitely starting to show signs of life. It won't be long now.

Since everyone but Ed has blown their "first guess" at a first storm, maybe we should all start making second (or third or fourth in some cases) guesses? Actually I'm hoping Ed's guess (7/31) is right...one week from today. That'd give us a July storm and kick off the season just before the real show begins.

Cheers,

LI Phil

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scottsvb1
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Re: "97L" [Re: LI Phil]
      #16652 - Sat Jul 24 2004 04:30 PM

Hey phil, sorry I missed your question yesterday on 97L becoming a TS in the Gulf. I was actually saying it should regain T.S. as in Thunderstorms, then i went on to say it could become then a TD by Monday. Still could and eventually a TS? Well who knows, right now, Ill just wait to see where its at if it becomes a TD at all. Scottsvb

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James88
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Re: 98L is DOA [Re: LI Phil]
      #16653 - Sat Jul 24 2004 04:31 PM

Another chance at a guess? Good idea Phil. There's something for the storm forum.

With all of this activity tipped to begin soon, I can't help but wonder whether we'll see something like the Parade of Storms in '95 or the Atlantic quartet in '98. Whatever happens, things will obviously get pretty hectic around peak of season.


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Anonymous
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Re: Tropics Quiet for the Moment [Re: MikeC]
      #16654 - Sat Jul 24 2004 04:41 PM


There seems to be at some level a circulation
forming southeast of Grand Cayman.


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Alex K
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grand cayman circ? [Re: DustDuchess]
      #16655 - Sat Jul 24 2004 04:55 PM

I looked at the visibles, and i failed to see an embryonic circulation near Grand Cayman. That said, there could be one forming that is hard to see now.

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joepub1
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The Little Triangle [Re: Anonymous]
      #16656 - Sat Jul 24 2004 05:24 PM

Interesting to see that we at least have some clouds in areas that could produce our first TD/TS of the season. That's a welcome change from the empty sat pictures that was giving us storm trackers a bad name!!

Old 97L still has a faint pulse, and of the three corners of the triangle, is most likely in the best spot. Moving at a snails pace compared to what it was doing earlier in it's life, we need to see some pressure drops to get it going again. Worth watching just because it's that time of the year.

Not too impressed with 98L, but east of the Bahama's is starting to look interesting if that's part of the same system. A little further south than I expected, and just a slight twist going on there.

Area E/NE of PR caught me by surprise. That wave was as dry as they come not more than a day or two ago, I swear. Look at it this morning, and there it is again.....I like it's position as well, but I'll take the post that says chances are not that good as a reasonable statement, for I'm not all that good at seeing all the factors that play into storm develpment.

The wave noted off of Africa seems SA bound to me...way south.

But all in all, signs that we are going to get a whole heck of alot of activity all at once sometime soon.


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Rabbit
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my thoughts [Re: Alex K]
      #16657 - Sat Jul 24 2004 05:33 PM

old 97L did flare back up over night and is looking better on satellite imagery than it has for a few days, but upper winds appear unfavorable and the wave axis is to the west of the convecion and any associated low is just north of Honduras.
If it forms at all it will be in about 3-4 days in the Eastern Pacific
development chances: 20% for Atlantic basin, more than likely in the gulf

98L has fallen apart since last night (this scenario seems familiar) and no longer has outflow or a mid-level low. It also seems to be in the process of being absorbed by the trough.
development chances:
30% if it can manage to stay separated from the trough

The system near Puerto Rico is being heavily sheared and has almost no chance of developing.
development chances: 10%

the wave at about 50 west has developed convection since last night, but appears to be flattening out.
development chances: 20% if its not completely elongated first

wave near the Cape Verde ISlands is also falling apart and looks like it is being sheared and influenced by the larger extratropical system well to the north. Note that the center is well northeast of the convection
development chances: 40% in a few days, if it holds together

the system over Africa looks very strong before comming off (also sounds familiar), but like most of the predecessors, may just become a low cloud swirl.
development chances: 60-70% if it can manage to hold together (hopefully it will)

have I missed anything?


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ticka1
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Re: my thoughts [Re: Rabbit]
      #16658 - Sat Jul 24 2004 05:48 PM

Great posts folks on the activity out in the tropics. Can I ask a question - correct me if I'm wrong okay - but isn't there a high pressure sitting over the Gulf of Mexico that would inhibit any tropical formation if the wave near the Cayman Islands tracks towards the GOM?

Ticka1

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Kevin
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Whoa GFS [Re: ticka1]
      #16659 - Sat Jul 24 2004 06:24 PM

We must be getting close to that "time" of the tropical season again. Oh, that's right, we are. Check the GFS MSLP run out to 384 (this is a long way out, so take this fwiw):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/carib/gfs/06/index_slp_l_loop.shtml

By the end of this month, this model shows one strong tropical wave developing off of the African Coast and moving west to west-northwest while strengthening. A few days later, it shows another strong tropical wave moving west and strengthening in the wake of the first wave. This seems like a realistic solution given we're nearing the time when tropical activity tends to pick up.

The MJO still warrants mention. Believe or not to believe, the Atlantic has been in the negative (positive for formation) MJO for a good portion of this month. Around the time that the GFS starts to pick the pace up, we may be seeing the negative MJO depart from the Atlantic, possibly tempering the activity that may possibly occur.

The point is though, we're getting towards the time of the hurricane season when things usually start to pick up.


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DustDuchess
Weather Watcher


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Re: my thoughts [Re: ticka1]
      #16660 - Sat Jul 24 2004 06:24 PM

I think the surface low has to get underneath that high pressure in order to be able to form, unless I am misquoting the facts.

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Anonymous
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Re: my thoughts [Re: DustDuchess]
      #16661 - Sat Jul 24 2004 06:49 PM

Tropical cyclones need an upper level anticyclone (high pressure) aloft to aid in ventilation. So yes, a high or ridge near a storm or wave or whatever it is usually will create a favorable enviroment for furth development.

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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


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Re: my thoughts [Re: Anonymous]
      #16662 - Sat Jul 24 2004 06:59 PM

Sorry, that last anon post was me, for some reason I couldnt get logged in.

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DroopGB31
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Re: my thoughts [Re: DroopGB31]
      #16663 - Sat Jul 24 2004 07:55 PM

Has JB said anything about the blob in the NW Carib.? It looks fairly intresting as its held its own convection wise, since at least last night. Looking at sattelite loops, looks like maybe there is a mid level circulation around the area near the caymans, maybe Im just seeing things, but anyone have any input on this? is this convection being caused by an outside source? ULL or difluence? Im gonna go fishing, be back in a few hours and see how it looks.

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