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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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rmbjoe1954
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LLC? [Re: LI Phil]
      #17054 - Fri Jul 30 2004 04:10 PM

I see rotation at 73W28N(or therabouts), is that accurate and would that be the LLC?

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________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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doug
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Re: LLC? [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #17055 - Fri Jul 30 2004 04:16 PM

Yes that is close, about 28/75 i think.
I trhink the NHC has lost the remants of 90L. Radar suggests the circulation has been surpressed down below Cuba; it seemed to be just north of Cuba this AM. More moisture to work with and more favorable conditions, but this one is slow to develop.
Can any body find 90L?

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doug


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joepub1
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Re: LLC? [Re: doug]
      #17056 - Fri Jul 30 2004 04:26 PM

Doug is real close on the LLC. 90L is not being helped by 99L's drift to WNW (instead of the NW). It needs some distance between the two and it's not getting any at the moment. The more northward 99L gets going the better for 90L. The more westward 99L drifts, then I think somebody on the east coast from N FL up ends up with a small, not much to talk about TS, and 90L has to fight for it's life for the near future.

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doug
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Re: LLC is there on 99L [Re: joepub1]
      #17057 - Fri Jul 30 2004 04:28 PM

I studied the loops too. this is a complex system and I see why the NHC is alluding to sub tropical...the surface feature is where we have suggested, BUT ther is stlii an active and well developed upper low behind and to the SE (now) of the surface low. I think the upper low has shown remarkable resiliance and it still is very much influencing this system.
Until this surface low sheds the upper low It may never be purely tropical. As it seems now this system must still be dependent on cool dry air drawn in by the upper low for some of its energy.
Any way that's how it looks to me.

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doug


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bobbi
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Re: just a quick note... stop staring [Re: Rabbit]
      #17058 - Fri Jul 30 2004 04:30 PM

can be injurious to your mental health.. i know
and eyes.. my gosh ..fifteen minutes.. beating me here

think there is a second center where i gave cords before that is on some level (low/middle) and shows up on visible.. to the southeast

but could be under chaotic pattern overall further west too

as for wierd theories..

remember how we had that wave that wasn't a TD and everyone was all nuts and in love with it? and the energy like warped out of there as if scottie had beamed it north into the atlantic..

well.. not sure that what nature taketh it didn't giveth back.. not sure the "energy" from the old Gulf System didn't transverse Cuba and got spit out south of Cuba

talk about oozy systems


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Anonymous
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Re: LLC? [Re: doug]
      #17059 - Fri Jul 30 2004 04:32 PM

90L is still there, it's 150-200 miles wnw of Key West moving off to the WNW slowly. The circulation is quite large and very easy to spot on the visual. It takes up most of the Gulf east of 90W. All it needs is convection and it will be off to the races as the low level circulation is well established.

This is Teal61 by the way, I'm at work and can't log in.


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GaryC
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Re: it means........ [Re: Unregistered User]
      #17060 - Fri Jul 30 2004 04:49 PM

Can someone tell me how to get the wind speed for what a T # is?

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doug
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Re: LLC? [Re: Anonymous]
      #17061 - Fri Jul 30 2004 04:50 PM

Good call on 90L. Unfortunately the moisture over it is paltry. It has pused far enough out to be away from that NE dry upper flow which was enhanced by the upper low in the Bahama on Wed and Thurs and it may be trying to pull up the moisture SE of it.
Still curious about the gathering of convection and moisture south and over Western Cuba, which seems to have a life of its own?

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doug


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LI Phil
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Dvorak Chart [Re: GaryC]
      #17062 - Fri Jul 30 2004 04:53 PM

Dvorak Chart

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Rabbit
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Re: LLC? [Re: Anonymous]
      #17063 - Fri Jul 30 2004 04:54 PM

99L may finally be the first (classified) depression of 2004
the center is there, there is light shear compared to several days ago, and there are numerous thunderstorms around the system
if it is classified, it will likely be in about 24 hours


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Cycloneye
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Recon observations [Re: Rabbit]
      #17064 - Fri Jul 30 2004 05:00 PM


URNT11 KNHC 301647
97779 16474 60275 83200 56200 05010 55668 /4588
RMK AF963 01CCA INVEST OB 04

;

But what all those numbers mean is the question as I dont know to read that.Someone who can explain the observations will be very apreciated to explain what they are seeing and recollecting in terms of data.

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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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joepub1
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Re: Recon observations [Re: Cycloneye]
      #17065 - Fri Jul 30 2004 05:17 PM

For lack of a better answer, I'd say that was a test message, going by the location of the plane, 27.5W 83.2 N. It's not there yet.

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Rabbit
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Re: Recon observations [Re: joepub1]
      #17066 - Fri Jul 30 2004 05:24 PM

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdl...&hour=126hr

this is the GFDL model at 126 hours
look to the east of the Antilles
a depression forecast to form?


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James88
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Re: Recon observations [Re: Rabbit]
      #17067 - Fri Jul 30 2004 05:29 PM

Seems like there is an increasingly loud call for a CV system in the near future. The season is really starting to warm up!

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joepub1
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Re: Recon observations [Re: James88]
      #17068 - Fri Jul 30 2004 05:34 PM

The AVN tries to put twins out there within a week.....

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bobbi
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twins.. tell me more [Re: joepub1]
      #17069 - Fri Jul 30 2004 06:03 PM

come on... don't tease

tell me more about the twins..
talking boy and girl twins?


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James88
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Re: twins.. tell me more [Re: bobbi]
      #17070 - Fri Jul 30 2004 06:14 PM

Bonnie and Charley?

99L doesn't have that much time left - 12Z ETA has the system moving inland in less than two days. However, I've heard that this model is not the most reliable with tropical systems. Is that correct?


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Anonymous
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Re: twins.. tell me more [Re: James88]
      #17071 - Fri Jul 30 2004 06:17 PM

is there a reason why the NHC hasn't updated the discussion?

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bobbi
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come on... show me which is the center [Re: James88]
      #17072 - Fri Jul 30 2004 06:19 PM

this HAS to be the most pitiful looking thing we have dealt with all year.. season..

yes.. i see it spinning.. there
and there....

which is it

come on..
what are those planes doing
inquiring minds want to know
and does anyone care?

and someone better send it the game plan because it is a day late and a whole lot of geography off..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

telling u .. this is sick.. it will be named a subtropical and we can all call it a day, cause it will be five o clock somewhere


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Anonymous
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Re: come on... show me which is the center [Re: bobbi]
      #17073 - Fri Jul 30 2004 06:22 PM

they wont classify it today, not enough convection around the center
this may turn out to be unclassified ts#5 when all is said and done


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