James88
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well, there are some reds appearing on the infrared images, so at least it is keeping up the thunderstorm activity. I agree Daniel, it does look better organised now than earlier.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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It looks like the tower on the west side is here to stay. Click the link for a current view. Tops to 56,000ft at 08Z. Looks like it might get rough today.
http://weather.cod.edu/cgi-bin/wwwradargif.pl/JAX.TOPS.gif?station=JAX&product=TOPS
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Yeah, this system looks like it's setting itself up properly now. Let's see if it gets up to 30kts at the next advisory.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Still just a we bit heavy on the NW-SW-SE sides. Looks like a little drier air on the N side is interrupting the process. It's also losing some of the inflow bands it had earlier. Sunrise in about an hour. We shall see.
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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The latest adviosry puts the depression at 25kts again. Strong uper-level northeasterly flwo and subsidence over the northern sector of the circulation is likely to prevent significant intensification. Even so, it is still forecast to reach minimal tropical storm strength, so the watches are being left in place. Maybe the daytime heat will allow more convection to flare up and help the system become better organised.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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From the 5am advisory/ discussion
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION INDICATES STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE DEPRESSION'S CIRCULATION...WHICH SHOULD HINDER
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well agree with on the poor organisation of TD One. IR imagery loops show a centre located north of the area of deepest convection. also say the centre is elongated. Perhaps it is elongated because it is trying to relocate closer to the area of deep convection? Just a thought. Not really expecting a lot from this, but noticed shows intensification while it is overland. Also, it may just be a minimal Tropical Storm at landfall, which will probably be tonight.
Also think we could see the Wave in the Atlantic become something if it continues to organise too.
Regards
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Here's a site I just located. The pix are done every 6 hours it appears. Lots of tools for enhancement of images. Click on the "Meteosat Images" button and then select the section of the sat shot.
http://www.eumetsat.de/
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
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Posts: 154
Loc: United States
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Don't look too good so far.......
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN 01 AUG 2004
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE CENTERED NEAR 32.1N 79.1W AT 01/0900
UTC...0R ABOUT 60 NM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...MOVING
NNW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE
LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER N OF THE
CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA/GEORGIA WITHIN A 60/75 NM RADIUS OF 30N79.5W.
THE NORTH HALF OF THE SYSTEM IS DOMINATED BY WIDELY SCATTERED
CUMULUS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA.
RADAR IMAGERY FROM COASTAL SITES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM NE SOUTH CAROLINA TO
OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well SSD have upped the TNumbers for TD One from 1.5/2.0 at 0545 UTC to 2.0/2.0 at 1145 UTC. However, the visible satellite loops show that the centre remains exposed from the deep convection to the south. Not sure quite what the motion may be doing, as the visible loops arent that clear. Also, it looks like maybe the centre really is trying to pull in the convection to its south, but just cant fight the upper-level flow. Be interesting to see what the Recon flight finds.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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I just checked and they have said that the centre is reforming nearer to the deep convection. Perhaps our friend has a shot at becoming Alex a little sooner than is being forecast.
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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silly question..what is SSD?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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does anyone see a small low, possible low level near 35N and 70W?
could this impact TD1? looks to be moving north, and looks low level..... morning vis shows the spinning....east of outer banks of nc
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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looks like the center is of TD1 is reforming to the south near the complex of storms....... could Alex be on the way? The blow up this morning looks to be the best convection for this system since it has been in the atlantic..... Does anyone know where to get the recon message without using THC?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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check out ths latest winds......
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/quikscat.phtml?station=tybg1
is that 35kts/ 40 kts winds i see??????
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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James,
further to what you said about saying the centre is reforming nearer the deep convection; the Vortex Data Message from the Recon flight has given a fix more than 1' further south than the 32.5'N given in the intermediate advisory at 12Z. This does indeed place the centre right on the northern edge of the deepest convection. As the circulation was earlier elongated, it could well be that there was more than one centre, or that the centre was trying to reform. However, the Vortex Message also shows winds at the surface no more than 30 mph, and a minimum extrapolated pressure of 1011 mb, 2 mb higher than stated in the 12Z advisory.
It will be interesting to see if relocate the centre in the 15z package, and also what impact this may have on the intensity forecast.
Oh, and SSD is the Satellite Services Division of NOAA. Their TNumbers and positions can be found HERE
Regards
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
Edited by Rich B (Sun Aug 01 2004 02:38 PM)
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well, winds are up to 30kts, and tropical storm warnings have been issued from Cape Fear to Cape Hatteras. Here's the advisory:-
000
WTNT31 KNHC 011428
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 01 2004
...DEPRESSION A LITTLE STRONGER...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
CAPE FEAR TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO
SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE WAS RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE
79.2 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...125 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON
SOUTH CAROLINA.
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY
WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TOMORROW. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTLINE LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...IN SQUALLS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE
DEPRESSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...31.9 N... 79.2 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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(duplicate post)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 01 2004 05:42 PM)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I think the 11:00am update will be important for a couple of reasons: If they change the watches to warnings and/or if they move them south or north we will know that TD1 has a destination in mind.
Right now, it doesn't look promising to be our first named storm, but what the heck do I know anyway? I do know this: that the storms to our west are definitely building up and looking to the east you can see of the feathery looking clouds from TD#1. At least I think that's what they are.
Colleen
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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looking at the latest goes-e vis....the center looks very exposed..... on close-up....center looks to have picked up a little forward due-north jog in the last few hours..... storms look to south look to be far from center.....
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
animation: 15
zoom factor high....
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