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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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James88
Weather Master


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Re: 11:00 Advisory [Re: PFSThunder]
      #17403 - Mon Aug 02 2004 03:04 PM

Sorry.

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LI Phil
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Some thoughts on Alex... [Re: James88]
      #17404 - Mon Aug 02 2004 03:04 PM

SHIPS model guidance jacks Alex up to 83 mph in 36 hours and 86 mph in 48 hours. Although this may be high, SHIPS has outperformed NHC's official forecasts. Why just yesterday, NHC wasn't predicting anything above 40 mph and this morning it's up to 60.

I believe Alex will reach hurricane status by 24 hours, if not sooner. Whether NHC will actually classify it as such remains to be seen...this could have an affect on everyone's numbers. JB has opined that under optimal strengthening conditions, Alex could exceed 100 mph(!). He's not predicting that...merely mentioning the possibility. Used the same analogy as with 90L...the rock up the hill. Well, in this case, it seems as though Alex has pushed the rock to the top of the hill, and the rock is about to tumble down.

Alex should begin a slow northward, then northeastward movement, and then take off rather quickly after that, barely missing landfall in SC. Winds are starting to pick up away from the center and it appears on radar that an eye is forming. I don't believe too many TS's form eyes...that's for 'canes.

I wouldn't be surprised to see hurricane watches go up at the next advisory...

Will be interesting to see what happens...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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bobbi
Unregistered




gorgeous alex and more gorgeous waves [Re: Cycloneye]
      #17405 - Mon Aug 02 2004 03:11 PM

love the way the first wave is feeding into the second..

sort of classical cape verde looking twins


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


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Re: Some thoughts on Alex... [Re: LI Phil]
      #17407 - Mon Aug 02 2004 03:27 PM

Hey guys,
just a brief post on Alex and the two invests:

Alex i think has potential to become a Hurricane by tonight. It has been an unusual system in that it sat there for a day, then suddenly strengthened quite markedly in a short period of time. Now it is heading ENE, but with a turn to the NE expected it will bring the core pretty close to the Outer Banks. The latest Radar loops from Charleston seem to indicate that there may already be a more northerly component to the motion of Alex.

Both waves looks decent, and i think we could see 91L classified within the next 12 to 24 hours if it holds together. 92L also looks impressive, but hasnt been around for quite so long, and may need to persist a while longer yet.

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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bobbi
Unregistered




oh NICE... FINALLY SOMEONE WANTS TO TALK ABOUT THE WAVES :) [Re: LI Phil]
      #17409 - Mon Aug 02 2004 03:39 PM

THANK YOU PHIL...are those really model tracks.. you didn't draw those just to get a rise out of me did ya?

been telling you all we should be paying attn to those waves

wow..
now what?


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LI Phil
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Re: oh NICE... FINALLY SOMEONE WANTS TO TALK ABOUT THE WAVES :) [Re: bobbi]
      #17410 - Mon Aug 02 2004 03:42 PM

http://www.hurricanealley.net/

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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rickonboat
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I see no easterly movement... [Re: LI Phil]
      #17411 - Mon Aug 02 2004 03:55 PM

Alex, if anything...is drifting north. How does the center see an easterly jog?

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h2ocean
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Re: oh NICE... FINALLY SOMEONE WANTS TO TALK ABOUT THE WAVES :) [Re: LI Phil]
      #17412 - Mon Aug 02 2004 03:59 PM

Those are the tropical models and they are from the last run of them yesterday. Most Globals show a recurve due to a trof, but that is still a ways away. JB thinks it will get close...thinks the trof may split. Only time will tell - may be a fun track to watch!

--------------------
Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station


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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: I see no easterly movement... [Re: rickonboat]
      #17413 - Mon Aug 02 2004 04:27 PM

Definite east of north movement noted in the visible sat pics. Upper level steer in currents definitely NE...Alex may not touch land except for the outer banks...Doug

--------------------
doug


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James88
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Re: I see no easterly movement... [Re: doug]
      #17414 - Mon Aug 02 2004 04:28 PM

Is it just me or is Alex starting to look a little ragged?

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Anonymous
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Re: oh NICE... FINALLY SOMEONE WANTS TO TALK ABOUT THE WAVES :) [Re: h2ocean]
      #17415 - Mon Aug 02 2004 04:30 PM

Definitely lining up Joe B vs. NHC on this one. They have it heading ENE and turning more NE. He sees a pressure trof and the change for Alex to come up west of Hatteras and bring Hurricane conditions to the Outer Banks. It's not definite, but he's been jumping up and down since yesterday when they classified the system with a pressure rise, failed to adjust the windspeed with a 6mb pressure drop and now that they have it down to 993. So he's calling for Cat 1 conditions as almost likely on the islands (with an outside shot for Cat 2) while they're calling for a track farther east of there. His reasoning, possible pressure of 980-970 over or just west of Hatteras based on the way the bands are setting up and then the shortwave in the TN Valley moving SE of Alex. After NC, it's out to sea.

So the lines are drawn in the sand. Either could be wrong or both may be close. But when there is competition, the consumer gets a better idea of reality IMHO.


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


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91L.... [Re: Anonymous]
      #17416 - Mon Aug 02 2004 04:34 PM

Alex looks nice but will eventually be a fish spinner;on imagery it looks like 91L is getting its act together and may present a bigger threat down the road...this is only the beginning....Hello Cape Verde season!

--------------------
________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: oh NICE... FINALLY SOMEONE WANTS TO TALK ABOUT THE WAVES :) [Re: h2ocean]
      #17418 - Mon Aug 02 2004 04:34 PM

91L nice signature to it, tumbling motion in the images... more westerly motion, far enough south to miss the trough...the trough may split off on its western end directly over the central gulf coast..seems to be happening now, so it will not drag the its tail deeply into the Carribean...91L is a Carribean feature in about two days.

--------------------
doug


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LI Phil
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Joe (B) versus the Volcano (NHC) [Re: Anonymous]
      #17419 - Mon Aug 02 2004 04:38 PM

Joe's been screaming all morning about the NHC's actions. We will see who's right in the end.

Aside from hurricanealley.net, does anyone know of a site that gives graphical displays of the model outputs? If so, give it up to the site.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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garyb
Weather Guru


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Re: Joe (B) versus the Volcano (NHC) [Re: LI Phil]
      #17420 - Mon Aug 02 2004 04:42 PM

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


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Re: I see no easterly movement... [Re: James88]
      #17421 - Mon Aug 02 2004 04:43 PM

Alex appears to be doing fine as it approaches the end of its adolesence and onwards to adulthood..and fish spinner. Its slow forward easterly motion gives it a shot to become a hurricane as it travels on the magic Gulf Stream carpet-ride.

--------------------
________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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LI Phil
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Graphical model maps [Re: garyb]
      #17422 - Mon Aug 02 2004 04:45 PM

Gary,

Thanks, I actually have that one bookmarked. What I'm specifically looking for is sites that produce graphics on storms which are currently only invests, like 91 & 92L. If you have a link to that, I'd love it.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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garyb
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Re: Graphical model maps [Re: LI Phil]
      #17423 - Mon Aug 02 2004 04:49 PM

Phil Try this one, click on the invest you want http://www.hurricanealley.net/ Gary
Sorry Phill reread your post and you have this but I'll leave it for the others

Edited by garyb (Mon Aug 02 2004 04:52 PM)


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teal61
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Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
Re: Graphical model maps [Re: LI Phil]
      #17424 - Mon Aug 02 2004 04:49 PM

91L models at 18Z are much further south than the 12Z models were. The latest runs take it right through the middle of the Carribean.

http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/AL9104MDL01.html


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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: 91L.... [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #17425 - Mon Aug 02 2004 04:56 PM

NRL photos sugest that 91L may already have a core of convection around a LLC...good candidate for #2.

--------------------
doug


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