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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: 91L.... [Re: doug]
      #17426 - Mon Aug 02 2004 05:02 PM

91L t#'s 1.5.

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doug


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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: 11:00 Advisory [Re: PFSThunder]
      #17427 - Mon Aug 02 2004 05:15 PM

If the forum moderators don't mind I see no problem with the cut and paste tactic. Some users don't have high speed and it's nice to see the data without navigating to the site. At least the info is "on topic" unlike your reply to James88.

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Storm Cooper
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Re: 91L.... [Re: doug]
      #17428 - Mon Aug 02 2004 05:16 PM

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 11.8N 20.1W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 02.08.2004 11.8N 20.1W WEAK

00UTC 03.08.2004 13.0N 22.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 03.08.2004 14.6N 26.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 04.08.2004 15.9N 31.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 04.08.2004 16.5N 35.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.08.2004 17.1N 38.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.08.2004 18.0N 40.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 06.08.2004 18.7N 43.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.08.2004 19.7N 45.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.08.2004 21.1N 48.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.08.2004 22.2N 51.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.08.2004 24.4N 53.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Tropics Guy
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Re: 91L.... [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #17429 - Mon Aug 02 2004 05:19 PM

That I believe is for 92L, and if it holds true, could be a fish.

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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summercyclone
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Re: 91L.... [Re: doug]
      #17430 - Mon Aug 02 2004 05:22 PM

Hate to be the naysayer...91L looks a bit ragged to me, still sorta skeletal....may be undergoing what I call the 'transition' from wave to TD, sometimes they 'flare down' at that point....technically, it probably is a TD, but, I don't see it as a sure thing yet, same for the system behind it.

Almost certain Alex is, or will be a hurricane. TS's can develop eyes, have seen that down as far as 50 mph a few years ago, Alex is probably up to about 65-70 mph now...twt, looks likely he will be Hurricane #1. And in the spot I expected the first storm to form too..although that was two months ago...:) And doesnt seem to be a in a hurry to go anywhere...so far...

sc


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LI Phil
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Re: 91L.... [Re: summercyclone]
      #17431 - Mon Aug 02 2004 05:53 PM

Looks like 91L will stay that way until at least 5:00. Will wait for the 17:45 Dvoraks

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
Weather Master


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Re: 91L.... [Re: summercyclone]
      #17432 - Mon Aug 02 2004 05:54 PM

The latest adviosry still has Alex at 60mph, but says that there is still the potential for him to strengthen into a hurricane.

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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


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2 pm [Re: summercyclone]
      #17433 - Mon Aug 02 2004 05:54 PM

Tropical Storm ALEX
000
WTNT31 KNHC 021742
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2004
...ALEX MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ALEX HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 MPH. A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE CAROLINA COASTLINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ALEX HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ALEX. HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC U.S. COASTAL AREAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...31.8 N... 78.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE National Hurricane Center AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Edited by hurricane_run (Mon Aug 02 2004 06:01 PM)


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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: 91L....CDO? [Re: summercyclone]
      #17434 - Mon Aug 02 2004 05:55 PM

On the other hand, I see a CDO may be forming in the last few frames....there is some southerly shear ahead..

and...you go Alex!! Looking more like a hurricane by the minute....little eastward jog in last frame (1:50 pm)

sc


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summercyclone
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Re: NHC hanging tough [Re: hurricane_run]
      #17435 - Mon Aug 02 2004 05:57 PM

ON HWatch....gutsy....nne might be the smoothed motion, but, it is wobbling......

sc


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


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Re: 2 pm [Re: hurricane_run]
      #17436 - Mon Aug 02 2004 05:58 PM

no change in strength. direction has chaged some. Steve Lyons on TWC said the hurricane hunters reported a devolping eyewall.

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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


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Re: 91L.... [Re: LI Phil]
      #17437 - Mon Aug 02 2004 06:01 PM

Phil:
If you guys are looking for more update model runs on 91L look at USF.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

Dave


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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Eye [Re: hurricane_run]
      #17438 - Mon Aug 02 2004 06:04 PM

Vortex Data Message

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT12 KNHC 021704
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/1704Z
B. 31 DEG 39 MIN N
78 DEG 43 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1352 M
D. 45 KT
E. 053 DEG 027 NM
F. 150 DEG 50 KT
G. 062 DEG 013 NM
H. 993 MB
I. 17 C/ 1572 M
J. 19 C/ 1571 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C20
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/3 NM
P. AF866 0601A ALEX OB 22
MAX FL WIND 56 KT SE QUAD 1513Z.

Circular 20, open to se..can see that on satellite..now FL winds down to 56 kts from 62 kts this am...translates to about 48 kts at the surface, so still close to 60 mph..still 993mb....storms go up and down in cycles, it is nearing diurnal mimimum, probably will go hurricane this evening or tonight, unless shear picks up again

sc

Edited by summercyclone (Mon Aug 02 2004 06:05 PM)


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LI Phil
User


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17:45 T #s [Re: summercyclone]
      #17439 - Mon Aug 02 2004 06:25 PM

Alex: 3.5/3.5
91L: 2.0/2.0

We will probably have TD2 at 5:00.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
Weather Master


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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: 17:45 T #s [Re: LI Phil]
      #17440 - Mon Aug 02 2004 06:32 PM

Wow, we wait for two months and everything seems to come at once - not that I'm complaining. The wave really has held together remarkably well given that it is currently surrounded by dry air. Will await 5:00 advisories with great interest.

Alex; 3.5/3.5 - so it would seem to be a 55 knot storm. We'll see.


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bobbi
Unregistered




91 has one beautiful red dot on invest [Re: LI Phil]
      #17441 - Mon Aug 02 2004 06:39 PM

dead center too~

(short post hf)


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Alex and waves [Re: bobbi]
      #17442 - Mon Aug 02 2004 07:35 PM

Alex eye now completely closed on Charleston radar and thunderstorm flare-up on visible image on western eyewall

91L will likely be a TD not at 5pm but at 11pm; it is not yet classified as '02L.NONAME' but is still 91L

92L is well on its way to becomming a TD by mid week

both waves are 1012 mb, have upper ridging, and have a Pacitic-style west flow at low latitude, so they are both closed lows but not TDs yet

It is possible that by Friday that we could be talking about 's Bonnie and Charley

back to Alex, it probably has about 12 to 24 hours left to become a hurricane (which I think it will do) before the shear kicks back in from the west


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Re: Alex and waves [Re: Rabbit]
      #17443 - Mon Aug 02 2004 07:46 PM

floater 2
look at the latitude
last time i did this for the Atlantic, i put up the wrong one (during Celia)
this is the correct Atlantic image
South America is to the SW

look closely at the beginning of the frame: 10N/about 11N or 12N
is that the center?

and to think, on July 30, i was considering lowering my forecast to 8/4/1


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LI Phil
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Re: Alex and waves [Re: Rabbit]
      #17444 - Mon Aug 02 2004 08:01 PM

This is the most recent quikscat for 91L. Sure looks to have some TS winds, if not TD.

I gotta agree with Bugsy, though. If it ain't NONAME02L pretty soon, it ain't gonna be TD2 at 5:00.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
Weather Master


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Re: Alex and waves [Re: LI Phil]
      #17445 - Mon Aug 02 2004 08:11 PM

If not this advisory then surely at 11:00?

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