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NHC advisories to begin shortly on Storm 01L (Potential Tropical Cyclone 01L) in the Western Gulf. Elsewhere, low east of Bahamas being tracked.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Old Sailor
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Re: Alex and waves [Re: James88]
      #17446 - Mon Aug 02 2004 08:25 PM

Alex may have peaked out and stay just a TS. 91L looks to be a TD by 11:00 tonight.

Dave


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LI Phil
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Re: Alex and waves [Re: Old Sailor]
      #17447 - Mon Aug 02 2004 08:37 PM

Dave,

(Happy post-b-day, big guy).

Just spent probably too much time looking at Alex on radar, satellite, IR and WV, and as much as I hate to say it, I think you may be right about peaking. He's looking terrible now. However, I'll still give it some time to refire, and tomorrow's another day. No way this is upgraded at 5:00.

Guess we're going to have to wait till the 11:00 for NONAME02L.

Oh well. You never know.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
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Hurricane Warnings [Re: LI Phil]
      #17448 - Mon Aug 02 2004 08:46 PM

Winds are still at 60mph, but there are now Hurricane Warnings up from Cape
Lookout to Oregon Inlet North Carolina...including the Pamlico
Sound. Alex is expected to come very close to the Outer Banks, NC tomorrow.

Edited by James88 (Mon Aug 02 2004 08:47 PM)


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hurricane_run
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Re: Alex [Re: LI Phil]
      #17449 - Mon Aug 02 2004 08:49 PM

000
WTNT31 KNHC 022042
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2004

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED AS ALEX EDGES TOWARD THE COAST...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. THIS MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
OREGON INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.
ALEX IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALEX IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ALEX. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1-2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON ATLANTIC SHORELINES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED INSIDE PAMLICO SOUND.
HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC U.S. COASTAL AREAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...32.1 N... 78.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE National Hurricane Center AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN


Edited by hurricane_run (Mon Aug 02 2004 08:55 PM)


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summercyclone
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Re: Alex and waves [Re: LI Phil]
      #17450 - Mon Aug 02 2004 08:50 PM

Hey Phil-

Alex looks just great!! Better than ever!.......

sc

Edited by summercyclone (Mon Aug 02 2004 08:53 PM)


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LI Phil
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Re: Hurricane Warnings [Re: James88]
      #17451 - Mon Aug 02 2004 08:54 PM

Well, I was right about the hurricane warnings. Latest track takes Alex very close to Hattaras as a hurricane. JB did a 4:15 update and he's much more bullish on a more westerly track, landfalling Alex over or even west of Hattaras; he thinks hurricane conditions will be possible from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet, hinting at the possibility of gales as far north as the VA coast.

Hey Mike, if that happens, will you be making the trek to the shore for some photos, or is this too weak for that?

Tomorrow should be very interesting as we could have Hurricane Alex and TD2.

Oh, and Joe thinks a threat to PR might be "in the cards" for Thursday night and Friday. Luis, you got a camcorder?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Warnings [Re: LI Phil]
      #17452 - Mon Aug 02 2004 08:57 PM

Quote:


Hey Mike, if that happens, will you be making the trek to the shore for some photos, or is this too weak for that?




I might hit VA Beach tomorrow afternoon if it looks like it -- I'm doubting Joe on his track though. We'll see.


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bobbi
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alex, bonnie?, black out rain in miami and other tropical thoughts [Re: MikeC]
      #17453 - Mon Aug 02 2004 09:18 PM

My question is..
If someone wanted to go take a day or two off and get near enough to take some pictures.. feel some effects...

Would it be worth a trip to the Outter Banks (have been asked here..) or should they just wait til the next wave that might become Bonnie or Charles.

Why does that feel like a song cue should start?

Alex looks good.. better than he has.. like the way he looks on visible. Can finally follow the area the hurricane center was.. Enough of an unknown on intensity forecasting that it is worth the warning being posted. Agree there.

Wave..boy that thing makes my heart go pitter patter. Just to watch it turn on itself and look like a real tropical disturbance should look on its way to depression or storm status. You can see so well where the bands would be IF it did become a hurricane. Don't need a great imagination there.. boy is it a classic.

Miami is having heavy rain again. Not as electrically bad but really dark here at 5..feels like 8.

I don't like people saying there is nothing to worry about when a wave is this far out. It hasn't formed. Models without a verified center are pretty much for entertainment purposes only and may I say .. I am being entertained. So.. not paying attn to anyone screaming FISH or put up warnings before something has even been named. It's a waiting game.. we all know that.

btw.. what did Mr. Bastardi say? Please.. pretty please with strawberries on top.

Bobbi


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LI Phil
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Re: alex, bonnie?, black out rain in miami and other tropical thoughts [Re: bobbi]
      #17454 - Mon Aug 02 2004 09:21 PM

>>> btw.. what did Mr. Bastardi say? Please.. pretty please with strawberries on top.

Uh...I just posted his thoughts 2-3 posts ago...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Anonymous
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Re: alex, bonnie?, black out rain in miami and other tropical thoughts [Re: bobbi]
      #17455 - Mon Aug 02 2004 09:24 PM

IMHO, a trip to the Outer Banks is always worthwhile. I've only been there once (several day trip), but it rocked hard. All those ferry rides down the islands to get to the next one. Okacroke Island and all the zillions of shipwrecks over the years. That place is a graveyard.

Steve


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MikeCAdministrator
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Next Recon [Re: Anonymous]
      #17456 - Mon Aug 02 2004 09:28 PM

For once I'm waiting on the next aircraft recon data set, the activity right now on alex's track and intensity will determine what it winds up doing.

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Rich B
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Re: alex, bonnie?, black out rain in miami and other tropical thoughts [Re: Anonymous]
      #17457 - Mon Aug 02 2004 09:34 PM

Hey guys,
once again it will be interesting to see what the recon finds when it gets out to Alex this evening / tonight. I think we could see the core make a glancing blow across Cape Hatteras, posible over the Outer Banks in general, but dont think we will see a mainland landfall. Also think Alex will become a Hurricane before it reaches the coast or its point of closest approach.

91L looking impressive, and with TNumbers as they are i think this is probable a candidate for TD2 tonight or early Tuesday.

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Anonymous
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Re: alex, bonnie?, black out rain in miami and other tropical thoughts [Re: Rich B]
      #17458 - Mon Aug 02 2004 09:47 PM

91L looks good 11pm

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Rabbit
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Re: alex, bonnie?, black out rain in miami and other tropical thoughts [Re: Anonymous]
      #17459 - Mon Aug 02 2004 10:01 PM

earlier today it appeared as if an eye formed and then filled back in. what apparantly happened was a bit of shear and dry air worked into the center and then the system reorganized, covering the center back up. Meaning this system is likely not peaked yet as the ir loop shows another blow up of convection over the center. As for the radar appearance, the eye is once again evident and appears to have spun faster slightly in the last couple of frames.

91L continues to become better organized, and I will be very surprised if it is not upgraded at either 11pm or 5am tomorrow.

Sort of interesting we have nothing until July 31, and the season begins to take off right at the beginning of August.


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rmbjoe1954
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Dr. Gray's Seasonal Forecast -August Update [Re: Rabbit]
      #17460 - Mon Aug 02 2004 10:15 PM

I am looking forward to his update; I bet he will not reduce the forecasted number based on the hefty activity in the Atlantic basin.

I remain firm at 14-10-4.

--------------------
________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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LoisCane
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good idea joe [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #17461 - Mon Aug 02 2004 11:12 PM

Remain Firm. Definitely!!

Think would be premature to stop now when we are so close.

Look at those waves...
Takes your breath away.. takes mine away.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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LoisCane
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strawberry wishes... [Re: LI Phil]
      #17462 - Mon Aug 02 2004 11:15 PM

Can't find where you posted Bastardi's thoughts on the wave train ....other than some nebulous comment about cyclone needing to maybe watch it.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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WxNLUcantlogin
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Things are popping now! [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #17463 - Mon Aug 02 2004 11:18 PM

We have Alex, 91L looks like a TD already, 92L is right behind it and now just entering the picture on the METEOSAT is another huge blob of red. I guess good things come to those who wait, huh? Now let's just hope no one has to deal with these things!

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LI Phil
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Re: strawberry wishes... [Re: LoisCane]
      #17464 - Mon Aug 02 2004 11:54 PM

>>> Can't find where you posted Bastardi's thoughts on the wave train ....other than some nebulous comment about cyclone needing to maybe watch it.

The second paft of the post alludes to 91L (PR). The first pertains to Alex.

"JB did a 4:15 update and he's much more bullish on a more westerly track, landfalling Alex over or even west of Hattaras; he thinks hurricane conditions will be possible from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet, hinting at the possibility of gales as far north as the VA coast."

and

"Oh, and Joe thinks a threat to PR might be "in the cards" for Thursday night and Friday."

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Jamiewx
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91L [Re: WxNLUcantlogin]
      #17466 - Tue Aug 03 2004 12:09 AM

T-numbers for 91L now at 2.0/2.0 which is 30kts, so we may have our Depression #2 at 11pm

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