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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Robert
Weather Analyst


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Re: 91L [Re: Jamiewx]
      #17467 - Tue Aug 03 2004 12:11 AM

CR Accuweather. com Joe Basatrdi


Copied article Removed at request of Accuweather.com
Update 4:15pm
First of all, its seems like I have fallen in this trap again...

--
-
Folks: Please don't repost copyrighted material. As much as Joe may want his word out, I'd rather get an ok directly from Joe/Accuweather before I can let things like this go. - Mike C


Edited by MikeC (Tue Aug 03 2004 01:10 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 91L [Re: Robert]
      #17468 - Tue Aug 03 2004 12:30 AM

WTNT21 KNGU 022300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 022300Z AUG 04//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1N4 48.0W2 TO 15.0N6 55.0W0
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMĀ­
AGERY AT 021800Z1 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N3 48.0W2. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS LOCATED ABOVE THIS
TROPICAL WAVE
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 032300Z8.//

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/atcfwb/index1.html


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 91L [Re: danielw]
      #17469 - Tue Aug 03 2004 12:46 AM

gfdl 2004080218-invest91l
Model now 6hrs old. Takes 91L from present position over Virgin Islands, then to just NE of the Turks/ Caicos Islands in 126 hrs from 18Z today. That would be 00Z Aug 08, if I did my math right. This is an old model. New model should be out in a couple of hours.

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
use GFDL model and press submit button.
*AVN and UKMET are showing 91L further to the NE than the GFDL model. Again these are old models.

Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 03 2004 12:53 AM)


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HanKFranK
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activity spike [Re: Jamiewx]
      #17470 - Tue Aug 03 2004 12:46 AM

there are two tropical systems out there tonight. i'm going to go ahead and classify t.d. 2 now, actually several hours ago when it rated 2.0. NHC will just have to fix that in the post-analysis.
alex first. three days ago i was holding out that it would nudge west into georgia or something, but instead it made an attempted cycloidal loop last 36 hours (think it came out with a figure eight) and now has finally had the ridge removed. latest shots tell me that it's accelerating.. and still trying to form an eye. upper sw-erlies are going to start infringing overnight but that should result more in a baroclinic jolt than anything else, and alex should be a hurricane when it runs the outer banks. i'm going to set my sights on a gustav '02-style graze from cape lookout along the barrier islands. eyewall onshore, eye center at or just offshore. think intensity will be 70kt give or take, and peak around 80kt east of virginia early wednesday.
91L, or tropical depression 2 as i prefer, will be officially classified at 11, unless the NHC feels like delaying this information will do the central islands any good. it's at 12N/49W or so, current trajectory around 280, motion maybe 16kt. slowing a tad, and i'm thinking it will begin to move wnw tomorrow. a CDO is developing and it will be bonnie by midday tomorrow. should reach the islands around guadeloupe wednesday afternoon. i'm really iffy on the upper air setup. it will have to deal with some shear around the greater antilles.. and probably a good chunk of island (d.r.?). my long-run take is that if it gets to be a hurricane before reaching 60w, it will recurve ahead of the upper trough late in the week and clip bermuda or something. if it stays below it should get hung near the bahamas around the weekend.. too little information to make an educated guess from there.
add into the mix the cutoff energy near 24/62.. not very impressive at the moment and unlikely to develop.. but if it starts up it throws future bonnie's fate into the air.
92L is far east and unlikely to develop much over the next 2 days.. it will probably maintain or wane a tad, and stay on a mostly westward course. expect it's run to come later in the week. if it's development comes early, it will move wnw into very dry conditions and marginally warm waters.. and struggle anyway. GFS has it going way out into the north atlantic.. don't buy that just now.
gfs likes a follow on wave to 92L (watcher for late week) and there is a low potential for alex's 'tail' to fester in the gulf. not a concern right now.
the sharp trough forecast to dig into the east this weekend i expect to split.. if future bonnie is strong it will run up ahead of it.. if it intensifies slowly and hangs near the caribbean it will be a problem for the u.s. later, because once that trough splits the east coast is wide open again. GFS has a few runs (these are not terribly believeable) where the trough sets up camp a'la 2000 and keeps the everybody west of 70w out of trouble. could be true, but i think it's just a dumb idea GFS has stuck in it's noggin.
HF 0046z03august


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Eye of the Storm [Re: danielw]
      #17471 - Tue Aug 03 2004 12:47 AM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kltx.shtml
Very awesome radar images


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


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92L [Re: Anonymous]
      #17472 - Tue Aug 03 2004 12:57 AM

T-numbers now being issued on 92L first classification is "too weak". We can probably expect it to stay disorganized until it passes over the cooler water ahead of it.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 91L Model FCST [Re: Anonymous]
      #17474 - Tue Aug 03 2004 01:10 AM

WHXX04 KWBC 022339
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 2

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT
BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.9 47.5 285./19.0
6 12.2 48.6 285./11.6
12 12.6 49.4 296./ 8.5
18 13.5 51.0 300./18.6
24 13.8 52.8 278./17.7
30 14.7 54.2 303./16.7
36 15.4 56.0 290./18.1
42 15.8 57.7 285./16.6
48 16.1 58.7 288./10.1
54 16.5 60.6 281./19.2
60 16.9 61.9 287./12.8
66 17.6 63.2 298./14.4
72 18.2 64.3 298./11.8
78 18.6 65.2 296./ 9.1
84 19.2 66.0 302./10.1
90 19.9 67.0 308./11.9
96 20.6 67.6 320./ 8.3
102 21.3 68.0 326./ 8.3
108 22.0 68.7 317./ 9.2
114 22.6 69.2 320./ 7.3
120 23.2 69.5 331./ 7.2
126 23.6 69.7 335./ 4.4 uh ooh-major forward speed slowdown-edit


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: strawberry wishes... [Re: LI Phil]
      #17479 - Tue Aug 03 2004 01:15 AM

URNT12 KNHC 030018
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/0018Z
B. 32 DEG 23 MIN N
78 DEG 11 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1310 M
D. 40 KT
E. 163 DEG 29 NM
F. 252 DEG 52 KT
G. 157 DEG 016 NM
H. 988 MB
I. 17 C/ 1538 M
J. 19 C/ 1536 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C25
N. 1234/8
O. 0.5/1.0 NM
P. AF866 0701A ALEX OB 04
MAX FL WIND 52 KT S QUAD 0006Z.


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HanKFranK
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988 [Re: danielw]
      #17483 - Tue Aug 03 2004 01:31 AM

that's typically a cat-1 central pressure. flight level winds a tad lackluster. but then winds usually lag behind pressure falls.
pressure at landfall/closest approach tomorrow i'm guessing will be around 980mb.
HF 0130z03august

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 03 2004 01:33 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 987mb 62kt 10mile EYE [Re: HanKFranK]
      #17484 - Tue Aug 03 2004 01:38 AM

Good Call HF !
URNT12 KNHC 030119
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/0119Z
B. 32 DEG 29 MIN N
78 DEG 06 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1303 M
D. NA KT
E. NA DEG NM
F. 044 DEG 62 KT
G. 321 DEG 010 NM
H. 987 MB
I. 17 C/ 1547 M
J. 21 C/ 1559 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C10
N. 12345/8
O. 0.5/1.0 NM
P. AF866 0701A ALEX OB 08
MAX FL WIND 62 KT NW QUAD 0116Z.
*Flight level temp inside the eye has risen also. Was 19C, Now 21C

Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 03 2004 01:45 AM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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alex and ??? [Re: danielw]
      #17488 - Tue Aug 03 2004 02:18 AM

Great posting around here. Enjoying reading along. Went out for dinner and to rest my eyes

Looked at the models. I think its way too early to tell anything w/o a complete fix on a system and further than five days. Main point of the models is that it continues west til the islands.

Very skeptical of erosion of the ridge to buy into AVN scenario or others.

Alex is kicking.. got to give him credit.

Didn't realize Jim Cantore was so good at covering Spring Break festivities. NOW I know why my brother was thinking of going up to the Outter Banks ...think it was to look at some of Cantore's fan club playing in the sand.. no words, hard job he's got out there huh?

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: alex and ??? 92L? [Re: LoisCane]
      #17489 - Tue Aug 03 2004 02:23 AM

AXNT20 KNHC 030001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 22W S OF
19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT...WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR
13N22W. THE WAVE HAS A RELATIVELY DEEP STRUCTURE WITH THE DAKAR
SOUNDING SHOWING IT REACHING FROM THE SFC TO ABOUT 500 MB. A
1912Z QSCAT PASS JUST CAUGHT THE WAVE AND SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED S OF THE EASTERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLAND. THE BULK OF THE TSTMS ARE LOCATED SW OF THE LOW ALONG
THE ITCZ...BUT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE APPROACHING
THE ISLANDS OF BOA VISTA...MAIO...AND SANTIAGO.


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LI Phil
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Re: alex and ??? [Re: LoisCane]
      #17490 - Tue Aug 03 2004 02:25 AM

Yeah, it's a classic "Wait & See" a la Steverino.

BTW, though, it's "outer" banks not "outter banks". Sounds too much like "otter" or some other dam building varmint.

Nice post. You all know this, so I won't reiterate...met Cantore in 99. Great guy, a tad short, but so what.

Just waiting for the 11:00 then going to turn in. Tomorrow should be a good day for tracking.

Actually, planning a week vay-cay on the outer banks the week after Labor Day (sorry, off topic, sort of). Bobbi, you tell your lil bro to go for it. Outer Banks might not be there in a few years, if the Floyds and Isabel's of the world have their way.

TD#2 at 11? I gotta go check NRL, and I'll let you know.

EDIT: Just checked NRL. Still 91L...Guess not until tomorrow, at the earliest

Edited by LI Phil (Tue Aug 03 2004 02:26 AM)


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Jamiewx
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Re: alex and ??? [Re: LI Phil]
      #17491 - Tue Aug 03 2004 02:33 AM

TWO backs that up, as it says 91L could become a Tropical Depression on Tuesday, so no classification tonight then.

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Anonymous
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Alex to 70MPH!! [Re: Jamiewx]
      #17492 - Tue Aug 03 2004 02:38 AM

winds up too 70 MPH on 11am

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hurricane_run
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Alex at 11pm [Re: Jamiewx]
      #17493 - Tue Aug 03 2004 02:43 AM

alex now has winds of 70 mph min central pressure 987mb
strengthing is forcast


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LI Phil
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Re: Alex to 70MPH!! [Re: Anonymous]
      #17494 - Tue Aug 03 2004 02:44 AM

If that's spinning the fishes, that's great!

If it's your home facing that...maybe that doesn't deserve an exclamation point.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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LoisCane
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for hank [Re: HanKFranK]
      #17495 - Tue Aug 03 2004 02:52 AM

IF...big IF..low possibility

IF...this happened..."and there is a low potential for alex's 'tail' to fester in the gulf. not a concern right now"

well...wouldn't that tend to keep "bonnie" on a more westerly tract ??

I can see where 'bonnie' could lift more wnw but then see potential for her to bend back towards the west after being lifted.. maybe, possibly...

lot of possibilities

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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joepub1
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Re: alex and ??? [Re: Jamiewx]
      #17496 - Tue Aug 03 2004 03:06 AM

Why do I feel that 91L, which has had spurts of life during the night time hours, is about to have another burst of thunderstorms now that it knows it's still just sn invest? If I were in the islands, I would go ahead and plan on TS warnings by tomorrow night, and a wet Friday. They sure seem to want to upset the future Bonnie quickly.

Not sure what to make of 92L tonight. Friday may be the day we see some development from it. The models still seem to love it more, for whatever reason. Do lots of funny things with it too, none which seem to relate to each other. IMO, the models don't seem to eject Alex out of the picture fast enough, or make him out to be the all-time wrecker of the Ber. high. Bonnie(91L) has a LONG way to go before she gets affected by anything Alex does or will do.

Oh well. Alex will be a hurricane in a hurry to go somewhere tomorrow, Bonnie will just be opening her eyes and seeing islands, and the wave machine will keep them coming for quite a few weeks.....


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hurricane_run
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Re: Alex to 70MPH!! [Re: LI Phil]
      #17497 - Tue Aug 03 2004 03:09 AM

The first hurricane of the season might be alex in the morning

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