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Tropical Storm Warning extended north along coastal TX to San Luis Pass. Sprawling Storm 01L will likely be named Alberto within 24 hours.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 294 (Idalia) , Major: 294 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 294 (Idalia) Major: 294 (Idalia)
22.7N 94.3W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 997mb
Moving:
Wnw at 8 mph
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 91L [Re: danielw]
      #17519 - Tue Aug 03 2004 10:13 AM

First VIS pic of the day.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhe.html


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: 91L [Re: jlauderdal]
      #17520 - Tue Aug 03 2004 10:24 AM

Caribbean seems logical to me, but who knows (every now and then the models perform well) - posted some thoughts in the Storm Forum last night.
Cheers,
ED


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danielwAdministrator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 91L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #17521 - Tue Aug 03 2004 10:32 AM

If I seem to be paying more attention to 91L please forgive the extra posts. Alex is out of my area of concern and you all are certainly doing a great job with the info on Alex. I am more concerned with91L-bonnie, as it may pose a threat to the GMX next week.
Thanks.
And heres a 09z WV shot from EUMETSAT.
"copyright 2004 EUMETSAT"

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/~idds/images/out/20040803_090000_07_E4_1.jpg

Main EUMETSAT page is below.

http://www.eumetsat.de/


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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: 91L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #17522 - Tue Aug 03 2004 10:34 AM

Quote:

Caribbean seems logical to me, but who knows (every now and then the models perform well) - posted some thoughts in the Storm Forum last night.
Cheers,
ED




Both paths seem logical considering it may or not be influenced by the deep layer trough...its interesting to see such a big difference of opinion this close to its actual arrival.


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danielwAdministrator
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Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Opening and Closing of Doors [Re: jlauderdal]
      #17523 - Tue Aug 03 2004 10:53 AM

Current WV loop shows that two doors are in motion. The front door seems to be swinging across the Appalachian area and is beginning to nudge Alex eastward.
The back door is opening up the Caribbean, and letting the warm, moist flow in. A drier area exists from the Isthmus of Panama to Puerto Rico, then west to Gitmo, Cuba the SW to the Honduran/ Nicaraguan border.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Opening and Closing of Multiple Doors [Re: danielw]
      #17525 - Tue Aug 03 2004 11:52 AM

Thanks Daniel for that wonderful picture show this morning. Definitely worth checking the site for that alone. Saved that nice Euromet one...worthy of having down the road.. nice pic of a system on its way somewhere... bon voyage shot.

Multiple doors out there... don't think anything is set as far as a track.

Shear out ahead looks a bit stronger than it has.. which will keep it a drop in check but also provide a sort of ventilating and will keep its size fed. High looks weaker than it is... water vapors can be deceptive and once Alex gets out of here ... will see what really happens in the environment to her NW. See how wide that door is really open or will the high travel a bit with it? Orientation of door opening and the high does not lead me to believe it will be an easy shot to slide off to sea and be a fish.

Agree Daniel..the real point of contention for most of us is the wave that will be Bonnie.

Alex is putting on quite a show and as he strengthens and how fast he goes will say a lot also about what he will leave in his wake for Bonnie to decide where to go.

Also of note.. is working out of NHC on wave closer to Africa "part of wave" and watch that dance between moisture?? to its SW and how its trying to stay to the north. Lot of connections out there.

As for the wave that should be Bonnie real soon.. she's looking really good on sats this morning. Better than Alex was when he was a TD.. and a storm.. has color. Even has color on NRL. Would venture to say that after they examine all the various data they will agree she definitely has winds over 25 mph in there..

But where? Where is the point?
Where is her true center?
Is it at 14.5 13.7?
Play all you want with ghcc site but once we get planes in there we will know for sure. And a difference of 13.5 and 14.5 can make a whole big difference in track.

Lot to think today for people... storm could affect many different areas, islands, land masses, ship routes.. or it could curve out to sea.

Place your bets .. someone will win, someone will lose.. but we will all be watching.

Bobbi

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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