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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Anonymous
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Re: 90mph and 91 [Re: summercyclone]
      #17545 - Tue Aug 03 2004 02:17 PM

Quote:

Last night thought it might get to Cat 2 and felt pretty sure of that this am...105 kts fl winds..if NHC accepts that, it is a 100mph cat2.

TD at 11am or maybe even ts......

Not a good day at NHC re: intensity on Alex, track a little iffy too..plus having to jump from TS warning to Hurr wng with no watch in between...we are in 1985! (Elena).

"Things' still happen...not bashing NHC , just observing...technology tells us what is happening, models are only guidance...human beings still make the decisions (and usually do better that the models when they only use them as 'guidance').

sc

and..oh yeah..hindsight is 20/20!!!

91L may be a threat if Bobbi's postulation is correct...the other one (near Africa)..fish storm, will help high amplify north of 91L....and send it more west....




NHC has admitted many times that intensity forecasting is tricky at best. This will be an excellant post-season case study.


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LI Phil
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Quick Post [Re: danielw]
      #17546 - Tue Aug 03 2004 02:18 PM

Steve already mentioned it, but I too want to give props to JB. Looks like Alex is still strengthening as it nears Hattaras.
Bobbi-It's "Outer" Banks.

91L should be close to Luis by tomorrow night, and while it is forecasted to recurve, JB thinks it might be a problem for the Bahamas down the road. If that happens, it could get entrained in the trof and be a problem for the east coast next week. Just speculation. Once Alex clears NC, will keep focused on 91L. Gotta check NRL to see if they upgraded it yet.

Finally, 92L. Might get a name, but it will be one for the fishes. That's OK. Just keep 'em coming.

OK, gotta go do some research...back later

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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hurricane_run
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eye wall [Re: LI Phil]
      #17547 - Tue Aug 03 2004 02:24 PM

alex's eye wall is closed on radar again. it looks like it might will clip cape hat. its gonna be close whether its a landfalling .

Edited by hurricane_run (Tue Aug 03 2004 02:27 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Cape Look OUT!, NC [Re: LI Phil]
      #17548 - Tue Aug 03 2004 02:29 PM

CLKN7-Cape Lookout,NC CMAN STA 1400z 34.62N -76.52W 031dg@ 358nm from storm center. wnd350dg @51kts gusting to 56kts bar 29.38 -0.18"/3hrs airT 74.7 dpT 73.2 - -

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LI Phil
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91L Modeling [Re: hurricane_run]
      #17549 - Tue Aug 03 2004 02:31 PM

Here's some of the graphical models for 91L

91L-1
91L-2

And 91L-Recon

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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Tropics Guy
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Re: 90mph and 91 [Re: danielw]
      #17551 - Tue Aug 03 2004 02:35 PM

Think that 91L will be upgraded at 11:00 and if not then surely by 5:00 today to TD #2. Most models are now taking it to the SE Bahamas, then possibly recurving it further towards the north.

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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LI Phil
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Re: 90mph and 91 [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #17552 - Tue Aug 03 2004 02:37 PM

NRL still has the storm as 91L, not NONAME02L, so it won't be upgraded at 11:00.

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Site Question [Re: LoisCane]
      #17553 - Tue Aug 03 2004 02:40 PM

The answer to your question has been placed in the Site Updates, Suggestions and Questions Forum. Hope that the explanation will provide you with a better understanding.
ED


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hurricane_run
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Td #2 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #17555 - Tue Aug 03 2004 02:52 PM

we have TD2 pres. 1009 wind 25kts
forcast to be a storm later today

Edited by hurricane_run (Tue Aug 03 2004 02:55 PM)


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hurricane_run
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Alex CAT 2 [Re: hurricane_run]
      #17556 - Tue Aug 03 2004 02:52 PM

Alex is now a cat 2 100mph ne at 15mph

Edited by hurricane_run (Tue Aug 03 2004 02:53 PM)


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LoisCane
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thanks everyone [Re: LI Phil]
      #17558 - Tue Aug 03 2004 02:55 PM

ok.. phil i will remember Outer Banks.

and btw.. its Hatteras.

Sorry...having a long morning here lol and those TS are getting to me..

TD2... official! Just saw the update.

Think Bastardi did a good job. Think NHC did a good job .. problem here is 1) intensity forecasting is iffy and 2) so so close to shore. Which is why there were hurricane warnings posted.. was a good call yesterday to hoist them.

And...for people complaining on Floyd forecasting..anytime you have a storm playing chicken with the coastline (this storm etched it almost exactly) you have a real handful. Andrew compared to this was easy..high set in and was only going one way..

I keep thinking this Bonnie might do a very similar track to the last Bonnie...very possible. I know that's not what people up there want to here..

Then again...heard jet stream is going to flirt with Florida later next week as well.

If it can get to PR.. it can get to Turks is my thinking..then what?

Warning..the last Bonnie liked to dance.. stalled, kept remembering that while watching Alex stall with weak currents and trapped.

Deja Vu?

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hurricane_run
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Re: Td #2 [Re: hurricane_run]
      #17559 - Tue Aug 03 2004 02:58 PM

The NHC says it might post watches and warnings laterstoday

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hurricane_run
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Re: Alex CAT 2 [Re: hurricane_run]
      #17560 - Tue Aug 03 2004 03:01 PM

On hatteras island wind 52mph pres. 1000mb the is flood in the area.

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LI Phil
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Re: Alex CAT 2 [Re: hurricane_run]
      #17561 - Tue Aug 03 2004 03:02 PM

MIKE C. PUT UP A NEW THREAD, YOU MAY WANT TO MOVE THESE POSTS OVER THERE

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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