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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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2PM Position Estimate [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #17602 - Tue Aug 03 2004 06:12 PM

Here is the latest Position Estimate from NHC - probably not a landfall with this one, but certainly very close.
ED

HURRICANE ALEX POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004

AT 2 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS ESTIMATED NEAR
LATITUDE 35.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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James88
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TD #2 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #17603 - Tue Aug 03 2004 06:18 PM

Am I the only one in thinking that the future Bonnie is looking a little ragged at the moment. It's probably a temporary thing, but I was just wondering if anyone else felt the same.

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LI Phil
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17:45 T's [Re: James88]
      #17604 - Tue Aug 03 2004 06:19 PM

03/1745 UTC 13.4N 55.1W T2.0/2.0 02
03/1745 UTC 35.3N 75.2W T4.5/4.5 ALEX

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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bobbi
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when a storm is this close that the eye wall is over land.. [Re: hurricane_run]
      #17605 - Tue Aug 03 2004 06:20 PM

its a hit

I don't know what the official parameters are as I am a little sketchy on that.. not sure I've ever heard exactly.

However there are no strong winds in the eye.. light winds or no winds..but the immediate eye wall is what has the winds and that eye wall has passed over land a few times.

But, I'm sure we will hear from someone here what the rules are..


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James88
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Re: 17:45 T's [Re: LI Phil]
      #17606 - Tue Aug 03 2004 06:22 PM

I must be wrong. Looks like it could be up to 30kts at the next advisory.

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Old Sailor
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Re: 2PM Position Estimate [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #17607 - Tue Aug 03 2004 06:28 PM

Ed:
I posted what I use to know as a land fall..(Use to be my understanding it was concerned a land fall when the center of the eye hit land. Guess we need to see what NHC calls it) Is that still the way the NHC calls a land fall?

Dave


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LI Phil
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Going on the record now... [Re: James88]
      #17608 - Tue Aug 03 2004 06:28 PM

This will be Bonnie at 5:00 pm

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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bobbi
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thank you phil.. [Re: LI Phil]
      #17609 - Tue Aug 03 2004 06:30 PM

now if you can find me my favorite unisys water vapor loop, the ramsdis loop and the winning numbers to tomorrow nights lottery .. i'd be even more excited

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LI Phil
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Re: thank you phil.. [Re: bobbi]
      #17610 - Tue Aug 03 2004 06:32 PM

Bobbi, on the wv you will see some dry air ahead of it. But it doesn't seem to be impeding it's progress in any way

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
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Re: Going on the record now... [Re: LI Phil]
      #17611 - Tue Aug 03 2004 06:35 PM

I think you might be right there, Phil. There's a new burst of convection occuring not far from the centre, so it isn't fizzling out. Will await the 5:00 advisory with great interest.

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BillD
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Re: Going on the record now... [Re: LI Phil]
      #17612 - Tue Aug 03 2004 06:38 PM

NRL has it as 02L NONAME, and I have to agree with you. TD2 is looking good right now.

Bill


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Rabbit
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no Bonnie [Re: James88]
      #17613 - Tue Aug 03 2004 06:40 PM

TD2
the western edge is beginning to show the effects of shear, and if it is not upgraded to a TS by 5 pm (which it will likely not), it will not become a storm.

92L is no longer active as all of the data is more than 12 hours old

Alex continues to look stronger with each passing hour
Alex


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Anonymous
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Re: Tropical Depression 2 Forms, Cat 2 Hurricane Alex Approaches [Re: doug]
      #17614 - Tue Aug 03 2004 06:40 PM

Hate to say it but our 'depression' doesn't look well organized at the moment..Avila hinted in his discussion that it doesn't fit all the parameters, but, since it is rapidly approaching the islands and is presumably going to organize, discrretion is the better part of valor.

TWT====not sure this one will make it,,remember Debby?(or was it Debbie?)

Agree with Bobbi, if it does make it, track like other Bonnie, or Bertha.....

sc


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Anonymous
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Re: Tropical Depression 2 Forms, Cat 2 Hurricane Alex Approaches [Re: Anonymous]
      #17615 - Tue Aug 03 2004 06:47 PM

I took a harder look and see that the actual 'circulation'may be very small, although with a arge envelope of clouds (remember Emily a few years ago?...of course, it was tiny, period).

However, shear is having an impact, if it doesn't get much worse, the TD will make it to ts, shortly.

sc


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ClarkE
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Re: Going on the record now... [Re: BillD]
      #17616 - Tue Aug 03 2004 06:56 PM

Latest QuikScat over TD2 doesn't show a surface circulation, just a sharp wave. The one early today (that they used to classify it with) caught a circulation about 48 W, but the newer one about 52 W didn't capture a circulation at all. We won't see Bonnie at 5p.

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bobbi
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Think td2 looks pretty good for a TD [Re: Anonymous]
      #17617 - Tue Aug 03 2004 07:01 PM

As I said earlier... its going to battle some shear. The envelope is bigger than the compact center that is rolling along steadily westward. It has looked pretty much like that for the last day or two. IF it were to intensify that pocket would fill out real fast. It has nice bands which bring in moisture and it is evacuating pretty nicely for a TD.

I think Avila was covering his you know what as he hates to upgrade w/o benefit of recon info. But, its closing in on the islands fast and they can't send a plane in til tomorrow.

With Alex catching them a bit off guard (in intensity) now is not the time to play it shy with Bonnie.

She will develop. She is not Debby, Debbie or Debra.. she isn't a fish and she isn't a duck. She's westward bound into prime time territory. Stop living in the past. Each storm is different. To say her path might be similar to Debby.. that is very possible.

And.. may I add that the longer she takes to intensify the further to the left of the forecast she will end up.

Enjoy the Cane that was sent you.. dance with it, enjoy, love the one you are with and stop remembering the one that annoyed the heck out of you

Bobbi


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Going on the record now... [Re: ClarkE]
      #17618 - Tue Aug 03 2004 07:02 PM

I don't think we'll see Bonnie today, tomorrow perhaps. Mainly because TD2 is just moving too quickly and the circulation isn't all there.

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bobbi
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agree on speed Mike [Re: MikeC]
      #17619 - Tue Aug 03 2004 07:04 PM

Main problem she is having more than shear though have seen where forward speed helps them sometimes get through the shear faster and intact. Seen it a few times.

Will see.

Do think we will see tropical storm watch or warnings go up for someone. Would be prudent thing to do.


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LI Phil
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Re: no Bonnie [Re: Rabbit]
      #17620 - Tue Aug 03 2004 07:40 PM

>>> the western edge is beginning to show the effects of shear, and if it is not upgraded to a TS by 5 pm (which it will likely not), it will not become a storm.

Bugsy, you may be right about it not being upgraded at 5:00, but it will be a TS tomorrow.

Official Track

I'd love for you to explain how if it doesn't get named at 5:00 it won't become a storm.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Old Sailor
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Re: Going on the record now... [Re: MikeC]
      #17621 - Tue Aug 03 2004 07:43 PM

Mike:
It looks more like a fast moving open wave this afternoon, with thunder storms maybe as it passes the islands can get true pressure readings, Think by the time it's near PR will have a much better read on the system.
Dave


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