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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Larry
Weather Watcher


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Loc: Raleigh, NC
Effects Of Hurricane Alex Being Felt Along N.C. Coast [Re: James88]
      #17622 - Tue Aug 03 2004 07:50 PM

ALEX update by WRAL

HIghway 12 overwash (nothing new here, doesn't take much)
Unofficial sustained winds of 72 mph and a peak gust of 102 mph were reported near Cape Hatteras by two private firms.
Looks like NC was lucky this time


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Steve hirsch.
Unregistered




Re: no Bonnie [Re: LI Phil]
      #17623 - Tue Aug 03 2004 08:01 PM

Yeah Phil, Rabbit seems to think if it isn't named by 5 it won't be :?: Give me a break. Bobbi hit on a few good points. Namely that every system is unique; it isn't always a graveyard in the Caribbean; that its envelope is large,their are banding features, and low pressure. This is by no means a goner, and could be a trouble maker down the line.....maybe in the not-to-distant future. Cheers!

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Rabbit
Weather Master


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NRL troubles [Re: Steve hirsch.]
      #17624 - Tue Aug 03 2004 08:17 PM

look at the time on the TD2 Scatterometer
There is no closed low, but this is also from 11 hours ago

the TD2 section does not seem to be updated very well

quick note now:
since 1978 (as far back as my memory will accurately serve me), the second TD of the season failed to become a storm in 1982, 1983, 1984, 1991, 1992, 1994, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2003, and possibly this year

Excluding this year, that is 10 times out of 26 years, and since 1991 it is 7 out of 13 years, and since 1999 it is 4 out of five years


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LI Phil
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Re: NRL troubles [Re: Rabbit]
      #17625 - Tue Aug 03 2004 08:25 PM

Rabbit, perhaps you have an outdated link to NRL.

>>> 92L is no longer active as all of the data is more than 12 hours old

It's still there still active, in fact:

WTNT21 KNGU 022300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 022300Z AUG 04//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1N4 48.0W2 TO 15.0N6 55.0W0
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 021800Z1 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N3 48.0W2. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS LOCATED ABOVE THIS
TROPICAL WAVE
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 032300Z8.//

But wait, there's more...
tropical cyclone formation alert.

You still didn't answer my question as to how if 02 NONAME doesn't get named by 5:00 it won't become a storm. Saying the second TD of the season doesn't develop x number of years out of y doesn't cut it.

Since your link to the NRL may not be working properly, here's the one you should use:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

If you look at the latest official advisory for 02LNONAME, you'll see it becomes a TS at 04/00Z, which, if I'm doing the math correctly, translates to 8:00 EDT, which is tonight at 8:00.

Anyone else think we won't have Bonnie by tomorrow?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
Weather Master


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Re: NRL troubles [Re: Rabbit]
      #17626 - Tue Aug 03 2004 08:29 PM

Rbbit, I'm not trying to start an argument or anything, but there are some things about some of those second tropcial depressions:

1999 - TD #2 formed just before going inland, so it did not have time to become a storm.

2000 - That TD formed in the far eastern Atlantic in June, when the waters where too cold to support a storm.

2001 - the system formed in July, so I'll give you that one.

2003 - TD #2 formed in June, when conditions do not favour storm development in the open Atlantic.

This is August, when things become a lot more favourable, and this depression is moving into a favourable environment.

Don't get me wrong, I respect your opinion and I'm sure you have the data to back it up. I only used these systems because Unisys does not show depressions before 1995. I just thought I'd throw in my view.

Cheers


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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forecast [Re: Rabbit]
      #17627 - Tue Aug 03 2004 08:33 PM

TD#2
AVN model weakens it to a wave within 24 hours, and never closes it back off
CMC, JMA, NOGAPS weaken it to a wave within 12 hours
GFDL weakens it to a wave in 48 hours
UKMET weakens it over Hispaniola as a depression in 72 hours

92L
AVN brings it to tropical storm in about 72 hours
CMC opens it to a wave in 72 hours
GFDL brings it to tropical storm in 48 hours
JMA, NOGAPS open it to a wave in 48 hours
UKMET brings it to tropical storm in 96 hours

NEXT WAVE
AVN, GFDL brings it to tropical depression in 126 hours (5 days)
UKMET brings it to tropical depression at 108 hours and to storm at 144 hours in an area to the east of where the TD currently is
CMC, JMA, NOGAPS are not picking up on it


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Loc: Central Florida
Re: NRL troubles [Re: LI Phil]
      #17628 - Tue Aug 03 2004 08:36 PM

in response to Phil, the reason I think it will not be a storm if it is not upgraded soon is that 1) it is moving into a large area of dry air, and 2) the shear is beginning to increase; the system does not have a well defined surface low. Unlike Alex, which was also disorganized for a while, the TD is in a much harsher environment and moving a lot faster than Alex, which at the time was not moving at all

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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist


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Loc: Florida Big Bend
Re: NRL troubles [Re: LI Phil]
      #17629 - Tue Aug 03 2004 08:36 PM

That update says 04 August????

Also....what is the purpose of showing an 11 hour old quiksat?

Anyway,

looks pretty robust to me, better organized than earlier today.

NHC will likely not upgrade at 5 or 11 (maybe 11, but doubt it)

Watches/warnings will go out at 5.

Bonnie tomorrow......

sc

it'll be kept a TD at 5 on basis of continuity and strong winds even if not a classical TD.....


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Loc: Central Florida
NHC typo [Re: LI Phil]
      #17630 - Tue Aug 03 2004 08:36 PM

according to the 4pm position, Alex is at 745.8 longitude

Edited by Rabbit (Tue Aug 03 2004 08:38 PM)


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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 69
Loc: Florida Big Bend
Re: forecast [Re: Rabbit]
      #17631 - Tue Aug 03 2004 08:38 PM

Old data is not bold data...just old.

The system by the capeverdes is already a goner....


sc


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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist


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Loc: Florida Big Bend
Re: NHC typo [Re: Rabbit]
      #17632 - Tue Aug 03 2004 08:39 PM

745.8???

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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Loc: Central Florida
Re: NHC typo [Re: summercyclone]
      #17633 - Tue Aug 03 2004 08:42 PM

AT 4 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS ESTIMATED NEAR
LATITUDE 35.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 745.8 WEST


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ClarkE
Unregistered




Re: NRL troubles [Re: LI Phil]
      #17634 - Tue Aug 03 2004 08:43 PM

LI Phil, 92L is the wave off of Africa - TD 2 is the old 91L. Just wanted to clarify any confusion there.

As for Rabbit using the global models to forecast the fate of TD 2 - global models are notoriously inaccurate when it comes to tropical cyclone intensity. This can affect their position estimates as well. It takes a model like the GFDL or other intensity-based model to accurate gauge future intensity; the GFS, UKMET, etc. are all geared towards baroclinic dynamics and as such aren't going to accurately capture the near-barotropic nature of a tropical cyclone.

The best example of this is a 1000mb estimate of Isabel's central pressure last year by the GFS/AVN when it was a Cat 5 hurricane.


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
alex 5 pm [Re: summercyclone]
      #17635 - Tue Aug 03 2004 08:45 PM

everything is the same except weatherflow reported a 5 min avg 75mph wind. A FIVE-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF HURRICANE FORCE...75 MPH...WASMEASURED AT 135 PM EDT AT AVON PIER BY A PRIVATE FIRM...WEATHERFLOW
INC.


5 PM EDT POSITION...35.8 N... 74.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 972 MB.

Edited by hurricane_run (Tue Aug 03 2004 08:47 PM)


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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 69
Loc: Florida Big Bend
Re: Don't forget the Gulf [Re: hurricane_run]
      #17636 - Tue Aug 03 2004 08:47 PM

Tail end of the trough there is making some weather...88 degree water temp in St. Marks this am....

looks like Alex might have made a small cycloid (loop) in last few hours...

sc


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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist


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Loc: Florida
Re: NHC typo [Re: Rabbit]
      #17637 - Tue Aug 03 2004 08:52 PM

Don't believe everything you read Rabbit...there is no such thing as 745.8 Longitude....74.58° maybe??

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: TD2 [Re: cyclone_head]
      #17638 - Tue Aug 03 2004 08:53 PM

Looks ragged, spoiler convection developing to s of center..what think ye HF??

sc


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: NHC typo [Re: cyclone_head]
      #17639 - Tue Aug 03 2004 08:54 PM

Report of wind gusts to 120 mph from areas of Cape Hatteras....unverified.

sc


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javlin
Weather Master


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Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: NRL troubles [Re: summercyclone]
      #17640 - Tue Aug 03 2004 08:56 PM

I agree that this will become Bonnie eventually but what about the track.The models are holding on to the perception of a NW turn evenyually.The best I could figure and it is probably off some 13N(give or take)and 56W.The system still defies the models.I saw the models Rabbit and some did not even initialize it right will a Depression.To me that would throw the gragh out.TD2 seems to be intensifing some with some higher cloud tops.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html


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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 69
Loc: Florida Big Bend
Re: TD 2 still with us---5pm discussion [Re: javlin]
      #17641 - Tue Aug 03 2004 08:58 PM

the cloud pattern continues to be very well organized with Plenty of
convection and rainbands. It is still difficult to ascertain if
the system...an especially fast moving one...has a closed
circulation without data from a reconnaissance plane. Sometimes
fast moving systems have a good satellite presentation but lack
surface circulation as indicated by recon data in the past.
Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for gradual
strengthening and the system could become a tropical storm in 24
hour or so. This intensity forecast is highly uncertain since none
of the global models develop the depression...and the GFDL which
made it a hurricane in the 06Z run now dissipates it in the 12Z
run.

The depression is moving westward or 280 degrees at 20 knots...
steered by the winds south of the subtropical ridge. However...
large scale models forecast a large trough over the western
Atlantic. This trough will erode the subtropical ridge
forcing the cyclone to slow down south of Puerto Rico and turn more
to the northwest and north during the last portion of the forecast.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 03/2100z 13.6n 56.6w 25 kt
12hr VT 04/0600z 14.0n 59.7w 30 kt
24hr VT 04/1800z 15.5n 63.5w 40 kt
36hr VT 05/0600z 16.5n 66.5w 45 kt
48hr VT 05/1800z 18.0n 68.5w 50 kt
72hr VT 06/1800z 21.5n 71.0w 60 kt
96hr VT 07/1800z 26.5n 71.0w 70 kt
120hr VT 08/1800z 31.0n 70.0w 70 kt


sc


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